While most restaurants track their margins monthly, bird flu outbreaks force you to recalculate weekly. Egg prices can double overnight, turning profitable dishes into margin killers. You'll need to quickly assess which menu items are hemorrhaging money.
Calculate the new food cost of your dishes
Start by identifying every dish containing eggs. Don't just think omelets - consider pasta carbonara, tiramisu, housemade mayo, and baked goods using eggs as binding agents.
💡 Example:
Pasta carbonara for 1 person:
- 2 eggs: was €0.60 → now €1.20
- Other ingredients: €4.40
- Old food cost: €5.00
- New food cost: €5.60
Difference: €0.60 per portion
Calculate the additional cost per portion for each affected dish. Watch for hidden eggs in fresh pasta, aioli, or custard-based desserts - they'll hit your costs too.
Calculate the impact on your food cost percentage
Your food cost percentage shifts upward when ingredient costs spike but menu prices stay fixed.
💡 Example calculation:
Pasta carbonara sells for €18.50 incl. VAT (€16.97 excl. VAT):
- Old food cost: €5.00 / €16.97 × 100 = 29.5%
- New food cost: €5.60 / €16.97 × 100 = 33.0%
Your food cost increases by 3.5 percentage points
Most kitchen managers discover too late that even a 3% jump across multiple dishes can push their monthly food costs above 35%. At that point, you're bleeding money on every order.
Choose your strategy: raise prices or adjust recipes
You've got three moves to protect your margins:
- Raise prices: Bump menu prices to maintain your target food cost percentage
- Modify recipes: Reduce egg quantities or substitute alternatives
- Pull dishes temporarily: Remove high-egg items until prices stabilize
⚠️ Note:
Call multiple suppliers before making decisions. Price increases aren't always uniform - you might find better deals elsewhere.
Calculate the new minimum selling price
To maintain your desired margin, you'll need to determine new minimum selling prices for affected dishes.
Formula: New selling price excl. VAT = New food cost / (Target food cost % / 100)
💡 Example:
Pasta carbonara, targeting 30% food cost:
- New food cost: €5.60
- Minimum price excl. VAT: €5.60 / 0.30 = €18.67
- Minimum price incl. VAT: €18.67 × 1.09 = €20.35
You need to go from €18.50 to €20.35 - an increase of €1.85
Monitor the situation and adjust
Bird flu outbreaks can persist for months, but prices eventually normalize. Track egg costs weekly and be ready to adjust your strategy as markets shift.
Automated systems like a food cost calculator (like KitchenNmbrs) can instantly recalculate margins when supplier prices change. This lets you spot problem dishes before they drain your profits.
How do you calculate the impact of more expensive eggs? (step by step)
Inventory all dishes with eggs
Make a list of all dishes that contain eggs. Don't forget hidden eggs: fresh pasta, mayonnaise, desserts, breading mixtures. Count how many eggs are in each dish.
Calculate the new food cost per dish
Work out how much more expensive each dish becomes. Old food cost + (number of eggs × price difference per egg) = new food cost. Do this for all your dishes with eggs.
Determine your new selling prices
Calculate what you need to charge at minimum to achieve your desired food cost. New food cost divided by desired food cost percentage gives you the minimum selling price excl. VAT.
✨ Pro tip
Recalculate your food costs within 48 hours of any major price spike. Hidden egg products like fresh pasta and housemade mayo can add €0.30-0.80 per portion to your costs without you realizing it.
Calculate this yourself?
In the KitchenNmbrs app you can do this in just a few clicks. 7 days free, no credit card.
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Frequently asked questions
Should I immediately raise my menu prices?
That depends on your current margins. If your food cost jumps above 35%, you're losing money with every order. Either raise prices or temporarily push other dishes harder.
Can I replace eggs with alternatives?
Sometimes, but it's tricky. You can use starches for binding in some recipes, or plant-based alternatives in desserts. But expect changes in taste and texture that might disappoint regulars.
How long does bird flu usually last?
Outbreaks vary wildly - anywhere from 6 weeks to 6 months. Monitor your supplier's pricing weekly and adjust your strategy as soon as costs drop.
Do I need to check all suppliers for egg prices?
Absolutely. During crisis situations, price gaps between suppliers can be huge. One supplier might raise prices 50% while another only increases 20%.
⚠️ EU Regulation 1169/2011 — Allergen Information — https://eur-lex.europa.eu/eli/reg/2011/1169/oj
The allergen information on this page is based on EU Regulation 1169/2011. Recipes and ingredients may vary by supplier. Always verify current allergen information with your supplier and communicate this correctly to your guests. KitchenNmbrs is not liable for allergic reactions.
In the UK, the FSA enforces allergen regulations under the Food Information Regulations 2014.
📚 Sources consulted
- EU Verordening 852/2004 — Levensmiddelenhygiëne (2004) — Official source
- EU Verordening 853/2004 — Hygiënevoorschriften voor levensmiddelen van dierlijke oorsprong (2004) — Official source
- EU Verordening 1169/2011 — Voedselinformatie aan consumenten (2011) — Official source
- NVWA — Hygiënecode voor de horeca (2024) — Official source
- NVWA — Allergenen in voedsel (2024) — Official source
- Codex Alimentarius — International Food Standards (2024) — Official source
- FSA — Safer food, better business (HACCP) (2024) — Official source
- BVL — Lebensmittelhygiene (HACCP) (2024) — Official source
- Warenwetbesluit Bereiding en behandeling van levensmiddelen (2024) — Official source
- WHO — Foodborne diseases estimates (2024) — Official source
Food Standards Agency (FSA) — https://www.food.gov.uk
The HACCP standards shown in this application are for informational purposes only. KitchenNmbrs does not guarantee that displayed values are current or complete. Always consult the FSA or your local authority for the latest regulations.
Written by
Jeffrey Smit
Founder & CEO of KitchenNmbrs
Jeffrey Smit built KitchenNmbrs from 8 years of hands-on experience as kitchen manager at 1NUL8 Group in Rotterdam. His mission: give every restaurant owner control over food cost.
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