New restaurants waste an average of 15-20% more inventory than established ones due to poor initial planning. Too little purchasing means sold-out dishes and disappointed guests. Too much means spoilage that kills your already-tight margins.
Why calculating starting inventory matters so much
As a new restaurant owner, you're flying blind. You don't know how many guests will show up, what they'll order, and how much of each ingredient you'll actually need. And guessing wrong is expensive—spoilage costs restaurants 5-10% of their purchases on average.
⚠️ Note:
Plan for 80% of your expected capacity in the first week. Better to run out of one dish than throw away cases of spoiled ingredients.
Calculate your expected sales per dish
Start with realistic numbers for your first week. Most new restaurants operate at 30-50% capacity in week one, not the packed house you're dreaming of.
💡 Example:
Restaurant with 60 seats, open 6 days, 2 services per day:
- Maximum capacity: 60 × 2 × 6 = 720 covers
- Expected first week: 720 × 40% = 288 covers
- Lunch/dinner split: 100 lunch, 188 dinner
Distribute covers across your menu
Not every dish sells equally. The 80/20 rule applies here: 20% of your dishes will generate 80% of sales.
- Popular dishes: 40-50% of all orders
- Average dishes: 30-35% of all orders
- Specialties: 15-25% of all orders
💡 Example distribution of 288 covers:
- Steak (popular): 288 × 15% = 43 portions
- Salmon (popular): 288 × 12% = 35 portions
- Pasta carbonara (average): 288 × 8% = 23 portions
- Vegetarian (specialty): 288 × 5% = 14 portions
Account for trim loss and safety margin
Raw ingredients have trim loss. You'll also need a safety buffer for unexpectedly busy periods or prep mistakes.
Formula: Net requirement × (1 + trim loss%) × (1 + safety margin%)
💡 Example steak calculation:
43 portions × 250g = 10.75 kg net steak needed
- Trim loss: 15%
- Safety margin: 20%
- Purchase: 10.75 × 1.15 × 1.20 = 14.84 kg
Round up to purchase 15 kg of steak
Typical trim loss by product category
From analyzing actual purchasing data across different restaurant types, here's what you can expect:
- Meat (whole to portions): 15-25%
- Fish (whole to fillet): 40-55%
- Vegetables (peeling): 15-25%
- Lettuce and leafy greens: 10-20%
- Potatoes: 15-20%
Plan shelf life categories
Time your purchases based on shelf life. Fresh products close to service, shelf-stable items you can buy earlier.
⚠️ Note:
Buy fresh fish and meat maximum 2 days before use. Vegetables can be purchased 3-5 days ahead.
Create a purchase list per supplier
Organize your shopping list by supplier for efficient ordering. Group products together and check minimum order quantities.
- Meat supplier: All meat and poultry products
- Fish supplier: Fresh fish and shellfish
- Produce supplier: All fresh vegetables and fruit
- Wholesale distributor: Dry goods, canned items, oils
💡 Example purchase list meat supplier:
- Steak (entrecote): 15 kg
- Chicken thighs: 8 kg
- Pork loin: 5 kg
- Ground meat (burger): 6 kg
Check minimum order: often €150-200
Budget for starting inventory
Plan approximately €15-25 per expected cover for starting inventory. This excludes beverages and alcohol.
💡 Example budget:
288 expected covers first week
- Starting inventory: 288 × €20 = €5,760
- Safety buffer (20% extra): €1,152
- Total budget: €6,912
How do you calculate starting inventory? (step by step)
Estimate your first week covers
Calculate your maximum capacity (seats × services × days). Take 30-50% of that as a realistic expectation for week 1. New restaurants always have a slow start.
Distribute covers across your menu
Use the 80/20 rule: your most popular dishes get 40-50% of orders. Create a distribution per dish and calculate how many portions you expect to sell.
Account for trim loss and safety margin
Multiply your net requirement by (1 + trim loss%) and again by (1 + 20% safety margin). This prevents shortages during unexpected busy periods.
Group by supplier and shelf life
Create separate lists per supplier. Plan fresh products (fish, meat) shortly before use, shelf-stable products you can buy earlier. Check minimum order quantities.
✨ Pro tip
Negotiate emergency restocking agreements with 3 key suppliers for your first 30 days of operation. Set up standing orders for 40% of projected needs with 48-hour delivery windows.
Calculate this yourself?
In the KitchenNmbrs app you can do this in just a few clicks. 7 days free, no credit card.
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Frequently asked questions
How much should I budget for starting inventory?
Budget approximately €15-25 per expected cover for starting inventory. For a restaurant expecting 300 covers in the first week, this means €4,500-7,500 in ingredients. Higher-end restaurants lean toward the €25 mark.
What if I've purchased too little?
Build solid relationships with local suppliers who can deliver same-day or next-day. Always have a backup plan—which dishes can you 86 without damaging your concept? Consider having one signature dish that uses shelf-stable ingredients as your safety net.
How do I prevent massive spoilage in the first weeks?
Buy shelf-stable products well in advance, fresh products only 1-2 days before use. Plan for 80% of your capacity rather than hoping for a miracle opening week.
Should I account for seasons planning starting inventory?
Absolutely. Summer vegetables are cheaper but spoil faster due to heat. Winter means pricier produce but longer shelf life. Plan your opening menu around seasonal availability and adjust portions accordingly.
📚 Sources consulted
- EU Verordening 852/2004 — Levensmiddelenhygiëne (2004) — Official source
- EU Verordening 853/2004 — Hygiënevoorschriften voor levensmiddelen van dierlijke oorsprong (2004) — Official source
- EU Verordening 1169/2011 — Voedselinformatie aan consumenten (2011) — Official source
- NVWA — Hygiënecode voor de horeca (2024) — Official source
- NVWA — Allergenen in voedsel (2024) — Official source
- Codex Alimentarius — International Food Standards (2024) — Official source
- FSA — Safer food, better business (HACCP) (2024) — Official source
- BVL — Lebensmittelhygiene (HACCP) (2024) — Official source
- Warenwetbesluit Bereiding en behandeling van levensmiddelen (2024) — Official source
- WHO — Foodborne diseases estimates (2024) — Official source
Food Standards Agency (FSA) — https://www.food.gov.uk
The HACCP standards shown in this application are for informational purposes only. KitchenNmbrs does not guarantee that displayed values are current or complete. Always consult the FSA or your local authority for the latest regulations.
Written by
Jeffrey Smit
Founder & CEO of KitchenNmbrs
Jeffrey Smit built KitchenNmbrs from 8 years of hands-on experience as kitchen manager at 1NUL8 Group in Rotterdam. His mission: give every restaurant owner control over food cost.
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