Daily price variations in fresh fish can push your food cost from 28% to 45% within 24 hours. In a sushi restaurant where fish is 60-70% of your purchases, every price fluctuation directly impacts your margin. This article shows you how to calculate and manage this risk.
Why daily fish prices are so dangerous
Fresh fish has no fixed price. Tuna that costs €45/kg on Monday can be €65/kg on Friday. For a pizzeria this doesn't matter much, but for a sushi restaurant it's existential.
⚠️ Watch out:
Many sushi restaurants work with fixed menu prices but variable purchasing costs. This is a recipe for loss.
The daily price impact formula
To calculate the risk, use this formula:
Daily price impact = (New price - Old price) / Old price × 100
💡 Example:
Tuna rises from €48/kg to €58/kg:
- Impact: (€58 - €48) / €48 × 100 = 20.8% increase
- On a €28 sashimi (€8 fish ingredients): +€1.67 in costs
- Food cost rises from 28.6% to 34.6%
You lose €1.67 per plate if you don't adjust your price.
Calculate your maximum daily price buffer
Determine how much price increase you can absorb without taking a loss:
Buffer = (Desired food cost % - Current food cost %) × Selling price excl. VAT
💡 Example buffer calculation:
Tuna sashimi €28.00 incl. VAT (€25.69 excl.):
- Current food cost: 28%
- Maximum acceptable: 35%
- Buffer: (35% - 28%) × €25.69 = €1.80
You can absorb €1.80 in extra fish costs per plate.
Set up weekly price monitoring
Check your main supplier every Monday and Thursday. Record prices for:
- Tuna (red): Biggest price swings, often 15-30%
- Salmon: More stable price, but high volumes
- Sea bass/dorade: Seasonal variation
- Shrimp: Can fluctuate 40% around holidays
⚠️ Watch out:
Price increases of more than 25% usually last 2-4 weeks. Then adjust your menu price or temporarily switch to alternatives.
Alternative fish strategy
Always keep 2-3 fish varieties in reserve that offer comparable quality:
- For tuna: Swordfish or yellowtail
- For salmon: Trout or char
- For sea bass: Dorade or mullet
Update your menu weekly with "daily price" for the most expensive items, or work with a fixed markup of 40% on top of daily price.
💡 Example daily price menu:
Instead of "Tuna sashimi - €28":
- "Tuna sashimi - daily price"
- Calculate every morning: daily price × 1.4 = selling price
- €50/kg purchase = €70/kg × portion size
This keeps your margin stable despite price fluctuations.
Digital price monitoring
With a system like KitchenNmbrs you can track purchasing prices per ingredient and immediately see what price changes mean for your food cost. Especially with fresh daily fish, this saves a lot of calculation work and prevents surprises.
How do you calculate daily price risk? (step by step)
Inventory your fish ingredients
Make a list of all fish varieties you use with current purchasing prices per kg. Also note how many grams you use per dish.
Calculate current food cost per fish dish
Divide fish ingredient costs by selling price excl. VAT and multiply by 100. This is your baseline food cost per dish.
Determine your maximum food cost limit
Establish what food cost is still acceptable (usually 35% for sushi). The difference from your current food cost is your buffer for price increases.
Monitor prices 2x per week
Check your main supplier's prices every Monday and Thursday. Note increases above 15% and calculate the impact on your food cost.
Set action thresholds
For price increases above 20% lasting more than a week: adjust menu price, switch to an alternative, or work with daily prices.
✨ Pro tip
Never buy more than 2 days ahead with fresh fish. Better to order more frequently than get stuck with high prices for a whole week.
Calculate this yourself?
In the KitchenNmbrs app you can do this in just a few clicks. 7 days free, no credit card.
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Frequently asked questions
How often should I check my fish prices?
At least 2x per week: Monday for the new week and Thursday for the weekend. For major price swings (>20%) check daily.
What is an acceptable food cost for sushi dishes?
For sushi, food cost usually ranges between 30-40% due to high fish costs. Above 40% it becomes difficult to remain profitable.
Can I pass daily prices on to guests?
Yes, many sushi restaurants use "daily price" on the menu for premium fish like tuna. Then calculate your selling price each morning based on your purchase.
Which fish has the biggest price swings?
Red tuna has the biggest variation, often 20-40% per month. Salmon is more stable, shrimp fluctuates especially around holidays.
How do I prevent losses from sudden price spikes?
Always keep 2-3 alternative fish varieties on hand and work with a maximum food cost limit of 35%. Above that, adjust your price immediately.
⚠️ EU Regulation 1169/2011 — Allergen Information — https://eur-lex.europa.eu/eli/reg/2011/1169/oj
The allergen information on this page is based on EU Regulation 1169/2011. Recipes and ingredients may vary by supplier. Always verify current allergen information with your supplier and communicate this correctly to your guests. KitchenNmbrs is not liable for allergic reactions.
In the UK, the FSA enforces allergen regulations under the Food Information Regulations 2014.
📚 Sources consulted
- EU Verordening 852/2004 — Levensmiddelenhygiëne (2004) — Official source
- EU Verordening 853/2004 — Hygiënevoorschriften voor levensmiddelen van dierlijke oorsprong (2004) — Official source
- EU Verordening 1169/2011 — Voedselinformatie aan consumenten (2011) — Official source
- NVWA — Hygiënecode voor de horeca (2024) — Official source
- NVWA — Allergenen in voedsel (2024) — Official source
- Codex Alimentarius — International Food Standards (2024) — Official source
- FSA — Safer food, better business (HACCP) (2024) — Official source
- BVL — Lebensmittelhygiene (HACCP) (2024) — Official source
- Warenwetbesluit Bereiding en behandeling van levensmiddelen (2024) — Official source
- WHO — Foodborne diseases estimates (2024) — Official source
Food Standards Agency (FSA) — https://www.food.gov.uk
The HACCP standards shown in this application are for informational purposes only. KitchenNmbrs does not guarantee that displayed values are current or complete. Always consult the FSA or your local authority for the latest regulations.
Written by
Jeffrey Smit
Founder & CEO of KitchenNmbrs
Jeffrey Smit built KitchenNmbrs from 8 years of hands-on experience as kitchen manager at 1NUL8 Group in Rotterdam. His mission: give every restaurant owner control over food cost.
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