I'll admit something that might shock you: most restaurants unknowingly sabotage their own profits every single day. The Kasavana and Smith matrix from 1982 reveals exactly which menu items are bleeding money and which ones could transform your bottom line. You can deliberately engineer each guest check to generate maximum profit.
What is the Kasavana and Smith matrix?
Michael Kasavana and Donald Smith created this matrix in 1982, and it sorts every dish into four distinct categories:
- Stars: Popular and profitable
- Plowhorses: Popular but not profitable
- Puzzles: Profitable but not popular
- Dogs: Not popular and not profitable
How do you determine popularity and profitability?
You'll need to calculate two specific values for each dish:
💡 Calculating popularity:
Popularity = (Number sold / Total covers) × 100
If you sell 200 pastas out of 1000 covers = 20% popularity
💡 Calculating profitability:
Gross profit per dish = Selling price excl. VAT - Ingredient costs
Pasta for €18.50 (excl. VAT €16.97) with ingredients of €5.10 = €11.87 gross profit
The four quadrants explained
Stars - High popularity, high profitability
These dishes are pure gold. Here's what you should do:
- Feature them prominently on your menu
- Train staff to recommend them first
- Never run out of ingredients
- Monitor quality obsessively (one bad experience destroys everything)
Plowhorses - High popularity, low profitability
Customers love these dishes, but they're draining your profits. Your options:
- Increase the price: Small increments of €1-2
- Shrink portion size: Same price, lower food costs
- Switch to cheaper ingredients: Without compromising quality
- Reduce menu prominence: Move them further down
⚠️ Watch out:
Price increases require careful testing. Push too hard and your Plowhorse becomes a Dog overnight.
Puzzles - Low popularity, high profitability
These dishes have untapped potential but aren't selling. Try these tactics:
- Improve descriptions: Make them sound irresistible
- Staff education: Have servers actively promote them
- Strategic placement: Top of category or highlighted boxes
- Rename completely: Sometimes a fresh name works wonders
Dogs - Low popularity, low profitability
After managing kitchen operations for nearly a decade, I've learned that Dogs simply waste menu space and tie up capital. You should:
- Eliminate them completely
- Replace with proven Stars or promising Puzzles
- Keep only if strategically necessary (children's options, dietary restrictions)
Practical example of the matrix
💡 Restaurant with 1000 covers per month:
- Steak: 180x sold (18%), €15 profit = Star
- Pasta: 250x sold (25%), €6 profit = Plowhorse
- Lamb rack: 45x sold (4.5%), €18 profit = Puzzle
- Vegetarian lasagna: 35x sold (3.5%), €4 profit = Dog
Your action plan: promote the steak aggressively, raise pasta prices or cut portions, improve lamb rack marketing, and replace that lasagna entirely.
How often should you update the matrix?
Analyze your menu performance every 3 months minimum. Seasonal shifts, food trends, and ingredient costs fluctuate constantly. That winter Star might become a summer Dog.
Using tools like a food cost calculator makes tracking gross profit per dish automatic, so you can focus on analyzing sales patterns rather than crunching numbers.
How do you create a Kasavana and Smith matrix? (step by step)
Gather sales data and profit figures
Note for each dish: number sold, selling price excl. VAT, and ingredient costs. Do this over at least 4 weeks for reliable data.
Calculate popularity and gross profit per dish
Popularity = (number sold / total covers) × 100. Gross profit = selling price excl. VAT - ingredient costs. This gives you the two axes of the matrix.
Determine the average values as the boundary
Calculate the average popularity and average gross profit of all dishes. These become your boundaries between high and low in the matrix.
Place each dish in the correct quadrant
Above average popularity AND profit = Star. Above popularity, below profit = Plowhorse. Below popularity, above profit = Puzzle. Both below average = Dog.
Create an action plan per quadrant
Promote Stars, make Plowhorses more expensive or reduce portions, sell Puzzles better, replace or remove Dogs. Test one change at a time.
✨ Pro tip
Target your 3 highest-volume Plowhorses first and increase prices by exactly €1.50 over 6 weeks. These popular dishes won't lose customers from modest increases, but they'll generate the biggest profit boost since they're already selling frequently.
Calculate this yourself?
In the KitchenNmbrs app you can do this in just a few clicks. 7 days free, no credit card.
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Frequently asked questions
How often should I update my menu engineering matrix?
Every 3 months at minimum. Seasonal changes, customer preferences, and ingredient costs shift constantly. What's profitable in winter might lose money in summer.
What if a dish is strategically important but classified as a Dog?
Some Dogs serve a strategic purpose - kids' meals, vegan options, or signature items. Focus on reducing ingredient costs or making small price adjustments rather than elimination.
Can I make multiple menu changes at once after analysis?
Never change multiple items simultaneously. Test one adjustment at a time so you can measure which changes work and which ones backfire.
How do I know if 8% popularity is considered high or low?
Compare against your menu average. With 15 dishes, average popularity is 6.7%, making 8% above average. Always use your own restaurant's data as the benchmark, not industry standards.
Should seasonal dishes be analyzed separately from year-round items?
Absolutely. Analyze summer and winter menus independently since seasonal preferences dramatically affect performance. A soup that's a Star in January becomes a Dog in July.
What's the minimum amount of sales data needed for reliable analysis?
Collect at least 4 weeks of consistent data before making decisions. Less than that and random events or special promotions can skew your results completely.
Which quadrant should I focus on first for maximum profit impact?
Start with Plowhorses since they're already popular but unprofitable. A small price increase or portion reduction on high-volume items creates immediate profit gains without risking customer loss.
📚 Sources consulted
- EU Verordening 852/2004 — Levensmiddelenhygiëne (2004) — Official source
- EU Verordening 853/2004 — Hygiënevoorschriften voor levensmiddelen van dierlijke oorsprong (2004) — Official source
- EU Verordening 1169/2011 — Voedselinformatie aan consumenten (2011) — Official source
- NVWA — Hygiënecode voor de horeca (2024) — Official source
- NVWA — Allergenen in voedsel (2024) — Official source
- Codex Alimentarius — International Food Standards (2024) — Official source
- FSA — Safer food, better business (HACCP) (2024) — Official source
- BVL — Lebensmittelhygiene (HACCP) (2024) — Official source
- Warenwetbesluit Bereiding en behandeling van levensmiddelen (2024) — Official source
- WHO — Foodborne diseases estimates (2024) — Official source
Food Standards Agency (FSA) — https://www.food.gov.uk
The HACCP standards shown in this application are for informational purposes only. KitchenNmbrs does not guarantee that displayed values are current or complete. Always consult the FSA or your local authority for the latest regulations.
Written by
Jeffrey Smit
Founder & CEO of KitchenNmbrs
Jeffrey Smit built KitchenNmbrs from 8 years of hands-on experience as kitchen manager at 1NUL8 Group in Rotterdam. His mission: give every restaurant owner control over food cost.
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