Kasavana and Smith matrix from 1982

Quick answer

I'll admit something that might shock you: most restaurants unknowingly sabotage their own profits every single day. The Kasavana and Smith matrix from 1982 reveals exactly which menu items are bleeding money and which ones could transform your bottom line.

I'll admit something that might shock you: most restaurants unknowingly sabotage their own profits every single day. The Kasavana and Smith matrix from 1982 reveals exactly which menu items are bleeding money and which ones could transform your bottom line. You can deliberately engineer each guest check to generate maximum profit.

What is the Kasavana and Smith matrix?

Michael Kasavana and Donald Smith created this matrix in 1982, and it sorts every dish into four distinct categories:

Stars: Popular and profitable
Plowhorses: Popular but not profitable
Puzzles: Profitable but not popular
Dogs: Not popular and not profitable

How do you determine popularity and profitability?

You'll need to calculate two specific values for each dish:

? Calculating popularity:

Popularity = (Number sold / Total covers) × 100

If you sell 200 pastas out of 1000 covers = 20% popularity

? Calculating profitability:

Gross profit per dish = Selling price excl. VAT - Ingredient costs

Pasta for €18.50 (excl. VAT €16.97) with ingredients of €5.10 = €11.87 gross profit

The four quadrants explained

Stars - High popularity, high profitability

These dishes are pure gold. Here's what you should do:

Feature them prominently on your menu
Train staff to recommend them first
Never run out of ingredients
Monitor quality obsessively (one bad experience destroys everything)

Plowhorses - High popularity, low profitability

Customers love these dishes, but they're draining your profits. Your options:

Increase the price: Small increments of €1-2
Shrink portion size: Same price, lower food costs
Switch to cheaper ingredients: Without compromising quality
Reduce menu prominence: Move them further down

⚠️ Watch out:

Price increases require careful testing. Push too hard and your Plowhorse becomes a Dog overnight.

Puzzles - Low popularity, high profitability

These dishes have untapped potential but aren't selling. Try these tactics:

Improve descriptions: Make them sound irresistible
Staff education: Have servers actively promote them
Strategic placement: Top of category or highlighted boxes
Rename completely: Sometimes a fresh name works wonders

Dogs - Low popularity, low profitability

After managing kitchen operations for nearly a decade, I've learned that Dogs simply waste menu space and tie up capital. You should:

Eliminate them completely
Replace with proven Stars or promising Puzzles
Keep only if strategically necessary (children's options, dietary restrictions)

Practical example of the matrix

? Restaurant with 1000 covers per month:

Steak: 180x sold (18%), €15 profit = Star
Pasta: 250x sold (25%), €6 profit = Plowhorse
Lamb rack: 45x sold (4.5%), €18 profit = Puzzle
Vegetarian lasagna: 35x sold (3.5%), €4 profit = Dog

Your action plan: promote the steak aggressively, raise pasta prices or cut portions, improve lamb rack marketing, and replace that lasagna entirely.

How often should you update the matrix?

Analyze your menu performance every 3 months minimum. Seasonal shifts, food trends, and ingredient costs fluctuate constantly. That winter Star might become a summer Dog.

Using tools like a food cost calculator makes tracking gross profit per dish automatic, so you can focus on analyzing sales patterns rather than crunching numbers.

How do you create a Kasavana and Smith matrix? (step by step)

Gather sales data and profit figures

Note for each dish: number sold, selling price excl. VAT, and ingredient costs. Do this over at least 4 weeks for reliable data.

Calculate popularity and gross profit per dish

Popularity = (number sold / total covers) × 100. Gross profit = selling price excl. VAT - ingredient costs. This gives you the two axes of the matrix.

Determine the average values as the boundary

Calculate the average popularity and average gross profit of all dishes. These become your boundaries between high and low in the matrix.

Place each dish in the correct quadrant

Above average popularity AND profit = Star. Above popularity, below profit = Plowhorse. Below popularity, above profit = Puzzle. Both below average = Dog.

Create an action plan per quadrant

Promote Stars, make Plowhorses more expensive or reduce portions, sell Puzzles better, replace or remove Dogs. Test one change at a time.

✨ Pro tip

Target your 3 highest-volume Plowhorses first and increase prices by exactly €1.50 over 6 weeks. These popular dishes won't lose customers from modest increases, but they'll generate the biggest profit boost since they're already selling frequently.

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In the KitchenNmbrs app you can do this in just a few clicks. 7 days free, no credit card.

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Frequently asked questions

How often should I update my menu engineering matrix?

Every 3 months at minimum. Seasonal changes, customer preferences, and ingredient costs shift constantly. What's profitable in winter might lose money in summer.

What if a dish is strategically important but classified as a Dog?

Some Dogs serve a strategic purpose - kids' meals, vegan options, or signature items. Focus on reducing ingredient costs or making small price adjustments rather than elimination.

Can I make multiple menu changes at once after analysis?

Never change multiple items simultaneously. Test one adjustment at a time so you can measure which changes work and which ones backfire.

How do I know if 8% popularity is considered high or low?

Compare against your menu average. With 15 dishes, average popularity is 6.7%, making 8% above average. Always use your own restaurant's data as the benchmark, not industry standards.

Should seasonal dishes be analyzed separately from year-round items?

Absolutely. Analyze summer and winter menus independently since seasonal preferences dramatically affect performance. A soup that's a Star in January becomes a Dog in July.

What's the minimum amount of sales data needed for reliable analysis?

Collect at least 4 weeks of consistent data before making decisions. Less than that and random events or special promotions can skew your results completely.

Which quadrant should I focus on first for maximum profit impact?

Start with Plowhorses since they're already popular but unprofitable. A small price increase or portion reduction on high-volume items creates immediate profit gains without risking customer loss.

ℹ️ This article was prepared based on official sources and professional expertise. While we strive for current and accurate information, the content may differ from the most recent regulations. Always consult the official authorities for binding standards.

Sources consulted

EU Verordening 852/2004 — Levensmiddelenhygiëne (2004) — Official source
EU Verordening 853/2004 — Hygiënevoorschriften voor levensmiddelen van dierlijke oorsprong (2004) — Official source
EU Verordening 1169/2011 — Voedselinformatie aan consumenten (2011) — Official source
NVWA — Hygiënecode voor de horeca (2024) — Official source
NVWA — Allergenen in voedsel (2024) — Official source
Codex Alimentarius — International Food Standards (2024) — Official source
FSA — Safer food, better business (HACCP) (2024) — Official source
BVL — Lebensmittelhygiene (HACCP) (2024) — Official source

Food Standards Agency (FSA) — https://www.food.gov.uk

The HACCP standards shown in this application are for informational purposes only. KitchenNmbrs does not guarantee that displayed values are current or complete. Always consult the FSA or your local authority for the latest regulations.

Written by

Jeffrey Smit

Founder & CEO of KitchenNmbrs

Jeffrey Smit built KitchenNmbrs from 8 years of hands-on experience as kitchen manager at 1NUL8 Group in Rotterdam. His mission: give every restaurant owner control over food cost.

8 years kitchen manager at 1NUL8 Group Rotterdam

Expertise: food cost management HACCP kitchen management restaurant operations food safety compliance

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