A popular bistro in downtown Portland kept their summer menu through December, watching their profit margin drop from 18% to just 4%. Winter brings higher energy costs and fewer guests, yet many restaurants don't adjust their menu and prices. You'll see exactly what this costs and how to prevent it.
Why winter menus are different
Winter changes everything for restaurants. Your energy bill jumps from heating and extended lighting hours. At the same time, fewer guests walk through your doors because of weather and holiday patterns. Many owners don't adjust their menu and watch profits disappear.
💡 Example:
Restaurant with 80 covers per day in summer, 50 in winter:
- Energy costs rise from €200 to €350 per day
- Fixed costs remain €400 per day
- Cost per cover: summer €7.50, winter €15.00
Difference: €7.50 extra costs per guest
The hidden costs of winter
Most owners only notice the bigger energy bill. But there's much more happening beneath the surface:
- Higher energy costs: Heating, extended lighting, longer prep hours
- Lower occupancy: Fewer guests means your fixed costs get spread across fewer covers
- Pricier seasonal products: Fresh vegetables and quality fish cost significantly more
- Increased waste: Lower turnover means more ingredients expire before use
⚠️ Watch out:
Many restaurants only calculate ingredient costs. But your fixed costs per guest also climb due to reduced occupancy.
What it costs if you do nothing
If you don't adjust your menu, these extra costs accumulate fast. Based on real restaurant P&L data, here's what that looks like:
💡 Calculation:
Restaurant with 50 covers per day, 6 days per week:
- Extra energy costs: €150 per day = €3.00 per cover
- Higher fixed costs due to lower occupancy: €4.00 per cover
- More expensive seasonal products: €1.50 per cover
Total extra: €8.50 per cover × 50 × 6 × 16 weeks = €40,800
How to prevent this
Smart restaurants adapt their menu for winter months. They embrace seasonal products that cost less and adjust prices where necessary.
- Seasonal menu: Switch to winter vegetables and braised proteins instead of summer favorites
- Price adjustment: Increase prices by €2-4 per main course
- Portion options: Offer smaller portions at lower price points
- Winter specials: Feature warm, hearty dishes with better food cost ratios
💡 Example winter adjustment:
Summer dish vs winter dish:
- Summer: Grilled sea bass €24.00 (food cost 32%)
- Winter: Beef stew €26.00 (food cost 28%)
- Difference per portion: €2.00 higher price + 4% lower food cost
Extra margin: €3.04 per portion
Timing your adjustments
Monitor these signals to know exactly when your menu needs updating:
- Food cost climbs: Above 35% becomes unsustainable
- Energy bill: More than 50% increase compared to summer months
- Occupancy drops: Less than 70% of your summer levels
- Weekly profit: Consistently lower than previous year
A food cost calculator (like KitchenNmbrs) shows your cost per dish instantly, so you can adjust quickly when prices spike.
How do you calculate the impact? (step by step)
Calculate extra energy costs per cover
Divide your extra energy costs per day by your average number of covers. For example: €150 extra per day / 50 covers = €3.00 per guest.
Calculate higher fixed costs due to lower occupancy
Your fixed costs stay the same, but are divided among fewer guests. Summer 80 guests, winter 50 guests = 60% more fixed costs per guest.
Add seasonal products and waste
Check your ingredient prices and waste percentage. In winter, products go past their date faster with lower turnover. Add this to your food cost.
✨ Pro tip
Track your food cost percentage on winter menu items every 10 days during December through February. If any dish climbs above 36%, either adjust portion size or raise the price by €1-2 immediately.
Calculate this yourself?
In the KitchenNmbrs app you can do this in just a few clicks. 7 days free, no credit card.
Was this article helpful?
Frequently asked questions
How much can I raise my prices in winter?
A price increase of €2-4 per main course is typical and accepted. Guests understand that winter brings higher costs, especially for quality seasonal ingredients.
Which dishes should I remove from the menu?
Drop dishes with expensive summer products like imported fresh fish, tomatoes and zucchini. Replace them with seasonal alternatives that cost less and taste better in winter.
How do I prevent guests from staying away due to higher prices?
Offer smaller portions at lower price points alongside your regular menu. You can also introduce a winter prix fixe menu with 2-3 courses for a set price.
When should I go back to summer prices?
Usually around April or May, when energy costs drop and occupancy increases again. Monitor your cost per cover weekly to determine the optimal timing for your location.
📚 Sources consulted
- EU Verordening 852/2004 — Levensmiddelenhygiëne (2004) — Official source
- EU Verordening 853/2004 — Hygiënevoorschriften voor levensmiddelen van dierlijke oorsprong (2004) — Official source
- EU Verordening 1169/2011 — Voedselinformatie aan consumenten (2011) — Official source
- NVWA — Hygiënecode voor de horeca (2024) — Official source
- NVWA — Allergenen in voedsel (2024) — Official source
- Codex Alimentarius — International Food Standards (2024) — Official source
- FSA — Safer food, better business (HACCP) (2024) — Official source
- BVL — Lebensmittelhygiene (HACCP) (2024) — Official source
- Warenwetbesluit Bereiding en behandeling van levensmiddelen (2024) — Official source
- WHO — Foodborne diseases estimates (2024) — Official source
Food Standards Agency (FSA) — https://www.food.gov.uk
The HACCP standards shown in this application are for informational purposes only. KitchenNmbrs does not guarantee that displayed values are current or complete. Always consult the FSA or your local authority for the latest regulations.
Written by
Jeffrey Smit
Founder & CEO of KitchenNmbrs
Jeffrey Smit built KitchenNmbrs from 8 years of hands-on experience as kitchen manager at 1NUL8 Group in Rotterdam. His mission: give every restaurant owner control over food cost.
Stop losing money in your kitchen
Most restaurants lose 5-15% margin due to invisible mistakes. KitchenNmbrs makes every euro visible — from purchase to plate. Start your free trial and discover where your money is leaking.
Start free trial →