78% of restaurants overspend on ingredients due to poor planning. But your recipes can become the foundation for precise purchasing decisions. Calculate exactly what you need based on planned dishes instead of relying on guesswork.
From recipes to shopping list
Most restaurant owners buy based on gut feeling. They estimate how much they'll need for the coming week. That often goes wrong: too much of one thing, too little of another.
Tools like KitchenNmbrs flip this approach. You plan which dishes you'll make and how many portions first. The app automatically calculates how much of each ingredient you need.
💡 Example:
You plan for this week:
- 50 portions pasta carbonara
- 30 portions steak with fries
- 40 portions salmon fillet
The system calculates that you need: 6 kg spaghetti, 1.5 liters cream, 1.2 kg salmon, etc.
Estimating expected sales
Smart forecasting starts with good data. Look at:
- Same day last week: How much did you sell last Monday?
- Season and weather: Summer = more salads, winter = more stews
- Events: Football final, fair, event in the area
- Reservations: How many tables do you already have booked?
Start conservatively. Better to have a bit too little than a lot of waste.
⚠️ Note:
Don't plan the same number of portions every day. Thursday and Friday are usually busier than Monday and Tuesday.
Buffers and safety margins
Never calculate exactly what you need. Always add a buffer:
- Perishables (fish, leafy greens): 10-15% extra
- Shelf-stable products (pasta, rice): 20-25% extra
- Popular dishes: 20% extra (can sell out)
This buffer prevents you from running out of ingredients mid-week. From years of working in professional kitchens, I've learned that undershooting your order is far more costly than slight overordering.
💡 Buffer example:
You calculate 1.2 kg salmon fillet needed for 40 portions.
Buffer of 15%: 1.2 kg × 1.15 = 1.38 kg
Order: 1.4 kg salmon fillet
Deduct existing inventory
Before you order, check what you already have. Count what's in your fridge, freezer, and dry storage.
Recipe-based systems automatically deduct what you already have from what you need.
- Check expiration dates - use what's about to expire first
- Count only usable inventory (no damaged products)
- Calculate with net weight (not packaging weight)
Suppliers and orders
Divide your shopping list among your suppliers. Many restaurants work with:
- Meat and fish supplier: 2-3× per week fresh products
- Greengrocer: 2-3× per week fresh vegetables
- Dry goods: 1× per week or every 2 weeks
- Beverage supplier: 1× per week or less
Order times are important. Fresh fish for Friday usually needs to be ordered on Wednesday.
⚠️ Note:
Check minimum order quantities with your suppliers. Sometimes it's cheaper to order a bit more than to fall below the minimum.
Building a weekly routine
Make this a fixed routine. Every week at the same time (for example, Sunday) you plan the week and make your shopping list.
The more often you do this, the better you get at estimating. After a few weeks you'll know your patterns and it becomes automatic.
How do you create a shopping list from recipes?
Plan your menu for the week
Choose which dishes you'll offer and estimate how many portions you expect to sell per day. Look at last week and account for events.
Calculate required ingredients
Multiply your recipe quantities by the number of planned portions. KitchenNmbrs does this automatically for all your dishes at once.
Add buffers
Add 10-25% extra depending on shelf life and popularity of the dish. This prevents you from running out of ingredients.
Deduct current inventory
Check what you already have and deduct it from your calculated need. Pay attention to expiration dates and use what's about to expire first.
Divide among suppliers
Split your list per supplier and pay attention to order times and minimum order quantities. Order fresh products more frequently than shelf-stable products.
✨ Pro tip
Focus on your top 8 dishes that generate 70% of your revenue over the next 2 weeks. Master the purchasing for these items first, then expand to your full menu.
Calculate this yourself?
In the KitchenNmbrs app you can do this in just a few clicks. 7 days free, no credit card.
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Frequently asked questions
How do I know how many portions I'll sell?
Look at the same day last week as a starting point. Account for weather, events, and season. Start conservatively - you can always order more during the week if needed.
What if I've ordered too much?
Use the surplus in specials or daily dishes. Some products you can freeze. Learn from your mistake and adjust your estimate for next week.
Do I have to calculate each ingredient separately?
No, recipe management systems automatically add up how much of each ingredient you need across all your recipes. This saves time and prevents calculation errors.
How often should I make my shopping list?
Make this a weekly routine, for example every Sunday. For fresh products like fish you can order extra during the week if needed.
📚 Sources consulted
- EU Verordening 852/2004 — Levensmiddelenhygiëne (2004) — Official source
- EU Verordening 853/2004 — Hygiënevoorschriften voor levensmiddelen van dierlijke oorsprong (2004) — Official source
- EU Verordening 1169/2011 — Voedselinformatie aan consumenten (2011) — Official source
- NVWA — Hygiënecode voor de horeca (2024) — Official source
- NVWA — Allergenen in voedsel (2024) — Official source
- Codex Alimentarius — International Food Standards (2024) — Official source
- FSA — Safer food, better business (HACCP) (2024) — Official source
- BVL — Lebensmittelhygiene (HACCP) (2024) — Official source
- Warenwetbesluit Bereiding en behandeling van levensmiddelen (2024) — Official source
- WHO — Foodborne diseases estimates (2024) — Official source
Food Standards Agency (FSA) — https://www.food.gov.uk
The HACCP standards shown in this application are for informational purposes only. KitchenNmbrs does not guarantee that displayed values are current or complete. Always consult the FSA or your local authority for the latest regulations.
Written by
Jeffrey Smit
Founder & CEO of KitchenNmbrs
Jeffrey Smit built KitchenNmbrs from 8 years of hands-on experience as kitchen manager at 1NUL8 Group in Rotterdam. His mission: give every restaurant owner control over food cost.
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