Seasonal products can cause your food cost to swing from 25% to 40% within a year. Asparagus costs €8 per kilo in May, €25 in August. Many restaurant owners don't adjust their menu prices and lose hundreds of euros per month.
Why seasonal products can eat into your profit
The problem with seasonal products is that your purchase price can double or triple, while your menu price stays the same. You calculate your food cost in the cheap season, but earn nothing in the expensive season.
💡 Example: Asparagus risotto
Menu price: €24.00 (incl. 9% VAT) = €22.02 excl. VAT
- May (in season): asparagus €8/kg, total ingredients €6.50
- August (out of season): asparagus €25/kg, total ingredients €12.80
Food cost May: 29.5% - Food cost August: 58.1%
In August you lose money on every plate you sell. At 20 portions per week you're losing €126 per week on this one dish alone.
The 3 strategies for seasonal products
You have three options to deal with price fluctuations. Each strategy has pros and cons:
Strategy 1: Seasonal menus
Change your menu card with the seasons. Asparagus only in May-June, pumpkin in fall, game in winter.
- Advantage: Always fresh, affordable ingredients
- Advantage: Stable food cost year-round
- Disadvantage: More work on menu development
- Disadvantage: Guests miss their favorite dish
Strategy 2: Flexible pricing
Adjust your menu price based on purchase price. Asparagus risotto costs €24 in May, €32 in August.
⚠️ Heads up:
Dutch guests aren't used to changing prices. This can cause irritation. Communicate clearly why prices differ.
Strategy 3: Average price
Calculate an average purchase price over the entire year and base your menu price on that. You earn less in the cheap season, but also not too little in the expensive season. This is a pattern we see repeatedly in restaurant financials - places that plan for year-round averages tend to maintain more stable profit margins.
💡 Example: Average price calculation
Asparagus per kg:
- May-June (2 months): €8/kg
- July-September (3 months): €18/kg
- October-April (7 months): €25/kg
Average: (2×€8 + 3×€18 + 7×€25) ÷ 12 = €20.17/kg
How to choose the right strategy
The right strategy depends on your type of business and your guests:
- Fine dining: Seasonal menus work well. Guests actually expect this.
- Bistro/brasserie: Average price is often most practical.
- Casual dining: Seasonal menus or average price, depending on your regular guests.
- Delivery: Average price, because online guests compare prices.
Tools to track price fluctuations
Manually tracking seasonal prices takes a lot of time. You need to check your supplier price every week and calculate what this means for your food cost.
Food cost software automatically recalculates your margins when you enter a new purchase price. This way you immediately see if a dish is still profitable.
💡 Practical tip:
Check the prices of your 3 most seasonal ingredients every Monday. Update these in your system and see what it does to your food cost. This way you avoid surprises.
Communication with your guests
If you choose flexible pricing or seasonal menus, explain this to your guests:
- "Our menus change with the seasons for the freshest quality"
- "Prices may vary based on season and availability"
- On your website: "Seasonal menu - prices subject to change"
Honest communication prevents disappointment and shows that you consciously choose quality.
How do you calculate the optimal price for seasonal products?
Collect price data for a full year
Ask your supplier for prices from the past 12 months for your main seasonal products. Note the lowest, highest, and average price per month.
Calculate your average purchase price
Add up all monthly prices and divide by 12. Or weight by month based on how much you sell (more sales in season = heavier weight).
Set your menu price at 30% food cost
Use your average purchase price to calculate total ingredient costs. Divide this by 0.30 for your minimum selling price excl. VAT.
Test and monitor monthly
Check your actual food cost every month with current purchase prices. Adjust your strategy if there are major deviations (>5 percentage points).
✨ Pro tip
Track your top 5 seasonal ingredients' weekly prices for 8 weeks during their transition periods. You'll spot the exact moment prices start climbing and can adjust portions or switch suppliers before your margins get crushed.
Calculate this yourself?
In the KitchenNmbrs app you can do this in just a few clicks. 7 days free, no credit card.
Was this article helpful?
Frequently asked questions
How often should I adjust my menu price for seasonal products?
For most businesses, 2-3 times per year works well: spring (March), summer (June), and fall/winter (October). More often than monthly irritates guests.
What if my supplier suddenly doubles the price?
First check other suppliers. If all prices are rising, you have three options: temporarily remove from menu, raise the price, or replace with an alternative ingredient.
Should I avoid seasonal products altogether?
No, seasonal products can actually be very profitable in the right season. Plan them smartly: sell a lot when they're cheap, less when they're expensive.
How do I explain price differences to guests?
Be honest: "Our prices follow the season to always offer the freshest quality." Put this on your menu or website, so guests are prepared.
Can I freeze seasonal products when they're cheap?
Some can (like berries, peas), others can't (asparagus, tomatoes lose quality). Do factor in freezing costs and quality loss in your cost price.
What percentage of my menu should be seasonal items?
Keep it under 30% of your total menu offerings. This gives you flexibility without making menu management too complex or unpredictable for regular customers.
How far in advance should I plan for seasonal price changes?
Start planning 6-8 weeks before the season change. This gives you time to test new recipes, train staff, and update your POS system with new prices.
📚 Sources consulted
- EU Verordening 852/2004 — Levensmiddelenhygiëne (2004) — Official source
- EU Verordening 853/2004 — Hygiënevoorschriften voor levensmiddelen van dierlijke oorsprong (2004) — Official source
- EU Verordening 1169/2011 — Voedselinformatie aan consumenten (2011) — Official source
- NVWA — Hygiënecode voor de horeca (2024) — Official source
- NVWA — Allergenen in voedsel (2024) — Official source
- Codex Alimentarius — International Food Standards (2024) — Official source
- FSA — Safer food, better business (HACCP) (2024) — Official source
- BVL — Lebensmittelhygiene (HACCP) (2024) — Official source
- Warenwetbesluit Bereiding en behandeling van levensmiddelen (2024) — Official source
- WHO — Foodborne diseases estimates (2024) — Official source
Food Standards Agency (FSA) — https://www.food.gov.uk
The HACCP standards shown in this application are for informational purposes only. KitchenNmbrs does not guarantee that displayed values are current or complete. Always consult the FSA or your local authority for the latest regulations.
Written by
Jeffrey Smit
Founder & CEO of KitchenNmbrs
Jeffrey Smit built KitchenNmbrs from 8 years of hands-on experience as kitchen manager at 1NUL8 Group in Rotterdam. His mission: give every restaurant owner control over food cost.
Make better decisions with real numbers
Should you change your menu? Raise prices? Test a new concept? KitchenNmbrs simulates scenarios with your own data. Try it free for 14 days.
Start free trial →