Sarah's catering company books 4-5 events monthly but she's barely breaking even. Sound familiar? Most caterers guess at their minimum event requirements without crunching the actual numbers. Here's how to calculate exactly how many bookings you need each month to stay profitable.
Gather your fixed monthly costs
For your break-even calculation you first need an overview of all costs you have every month, regardless of how many events you do.
💡 Example fixed costs:
- Kitchen/location rent: €1.200
- Insurance: €180
- Phone/internet: €80
- Accountant: €150
- Equipment depreciation: €300
- Car/transport: €250
Total fixed costs: €2.160 per month
Calculate your average margin per event
Now you need to know how much you keep on average per event after deducting all variable costs (ingredients, on-site staff, fuel).
💡 Example event for 50 people:
Revenue: €35 per person = €1.750
- Ingredients (30%): €525
- On-site staff: €200
- Fuel/transport: €45
- Tableware/materials: €80
Margin per event: €1.750 - €850 = €900
⚠️ Note:
Work with your average event. Some are larger (higher margin), others smaller. Check your last 10 events for a realistic average.
The break-even formula
With this data you can calculate how many events you need at minimum:
Number of events = Fixed costs / Margin per event
💡 Calculation:
€2.160 fixed costs / €900 margin per event = 2.4 events
You need a minimum of 3 events per month to break even.
Add a safety margin
Break-even means €0 profit. For a healthy buffer add 30-50% on top. This covers unexpected costs and gives you room for investments.
- For 20% profit: 3 events × 1.2 = 4 events per month
- For 30% profit: 3 events × 1.3 = 4 events per month
- For 50% profit: 3 events × 1.5 = 5 events per month
Factor in seasons in your planning
Catering is seasonal. Summer and December are often busy, January and February quiet. Plan by quarter instead of by month.
💡 Quarterly planning:
- Busy quarter (summer): 6-8 events per month
- Normal quarter: 4-5 events per month
- Quiet quarter (winter): 2-3 events per month
On average you'll then hit your 4-5 events per month.
Verify your calculation with actual figures
Track every month how many events you did and what your profit was. Does this match your calculation? If not, your assumptions aren't realistic.
From tracking this across dozens of restaurants, I've found that most caterers underestimate their true variable costs by 15-20%. So build in that buffer from the start.
An app like KitchenNmbrs can help you track your actual costs and margin per event, so you can calculate more accurately over time.
How do you calculate how many events you need? (step by step)
Make a list of all your fixed monthly costs
Add up: rent, insurance, phone, accountant, depreciation, transport. These are costs you have regardless of how many events you do.
Calculate your average margin per event
Take your average revenue per event minus all variable costs (ingredients, on-site staff, transport, materials). This is what's left over for fixed costs and profit.
Divide fixed costs by margin per event
The formula: Number of events = Fixed costs / Margin per event. This gives you your break-even number. Add 30-50% for profit and unexpected costs.
✨ Pro tip
Aim for 6-7 event bookings monthly if you need 5 profitable ones. Cancellations happen 15-20% of the time, so this buffer ensures you'll hit your minimum target.
Calculate this yourself?
In the KitchenNmbrs app you can do this in just a few clicks. 7 days free, no credit card.
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Frequently asked questions
Should I include VAT in my calculation?
Always calculate excluding VAT. Your revenue of €35 per person becomes €32.11 excl. 9% VAT. Your costs are also often excluding VAT if you're a business owner.
What if my events vary greatly in size?
Create three categories: small (20-40 people), medium (40-80 people) and large events (80+ people). Calculate separately for each category how many you need.
How often should I update this calculation?
Check each quarter whether your assumptions still hold. If suppliers raise prices or your fixed costs increase, adjust your calculation accordingly.
What if I have much fewer events some months?
Build a buffer during busy months. Set aside 20-30% of your profit for quiet periods. That way you can also cover your fixed costs in January and February.
Should I factor in my own time as a business owner?
Yes, calculate at least €20-25 per hour for your own time. Otherwise you're working for free and that's not a healthy business. Add this to your variable costs per event.
How do I account for last-minute cancellations in my planning?
Track your cancellation rate over 6 months and add 10-15% extra bookings to compensate. If you cancel 1 in 8 events, book 9 events to deliver 8 reliably.
📚 Sources consulted
- EU Verordening 852/2004 — Levensmiddelenhygiëne (2004) — Official source
- EU Verordening 853/2004 — Hygiënevoorschriften voor levensmiddelen van dierlijke oorsprong (2004) — Official source
- EU Verordening 1169/2011 — Voedselinformatie aan consumenten (2011) — Official source
- NVWA — Hygiënecode voor de horeca (2024) — Official source
- NVWA — Allergenen in voedsel (2024) — Official source
- Codex Alimentarius — International Food Standards (2024) — Official source
- FSA — Safer food, better business (HACCP) (2024) — Official source
- BVL — Lebensmittelhygiene (HACCP) (2024) — Official source
- Warenwetbesluit Bereiding en behandeling van levensmiddelen (2024) — Official source
- WHO — Foodborne diseases estimates (2024) — Official source
Food Standards Agency (FSA) — https://www.food.gov.uk
The HACCP standards shown in this application are for informational purposes only. KitchenNmbrs does not guarantee that displayed values are current or complete. Always consult the FSA or your local authority for the latest regulations.
Written by
Jeffrey Smit
Founder & CEO of KitchenNmbrs
Jeffrey Smit built KitchenNmbrs from 8 years of hands-on experience as kitchen manager at 1NUL8 Group in Rotterdam. His mission: give every restaurant owner control over food cost.
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