Deciding to close lunch service is like choosing between a slow leak and a quick bandage - you might stop the bleeding, but you could also cut off circulation. Restaurant owners face this dilemma daily as tight margins force tough choices. The math behind this decision determines if you're saving money or throwing it away.
Calculate your current lunch figures
Start by tracking exactly what lunch brings to your bottom line. Most operators guess at these numbers, and that's one of the most common blind spots in kitchen management.
💡 Example calculation:
Restaurant with lunch service, 5 days per week:
- Average lunch revenue: €350 per day
- Staff lunch: 1 chef + 1 server = €25/hour total
- Lunch service: 11:00-15:00 = 4 hours
- Labor cost lunch: €100 per day
Net proceeds: €350 - €100 = €250 per day
But wait - that's before food costs. If your lunch dishes run 30% food cost, subtract another €105 (€350 × 0.30). You're left with €145 for fixed costs and profit.
Measure the impact of closing
Closing doesn't just slash labor costs - it kills revenue too. And some expenses keep running no matter what.
- Savings: Lunch staff wages (€100/day in example)
- Loss: Net lunch margin (€145/day in example)
- Ongoing: Rent, utilities, insurance continue
⚠️ Attention:
In this example you lose €45 per day by closing (€145 margin - €100 savings = €45 loss). Closing would hurt your finances.
Situations where closing makes sense
Closing becomes smart when labor costs exceed your net margin. This typically happens with:
- Low occupancy: Fewer than 20 covers per lunch service
- Low average check: Under €12-15 per person
- High labor cost: Overstaffed for the volume
- High food cost: Lunch dishes above 35% food cost
💡 Break-even example:
With €100 labor cost per day you need:
- Revenue: at least €250 (at 30% food cost and 20% other costs)
- Or: 20 covers at €12.50
- Or: 15 covers at €16.70
Consistently below these numbers? Lunch is draining your cash.
Alternatives to closing completely
Before shutting down lunch entirely, test these options:
- Skeleton crew: Can one person handle lunch solo?
- Limited menu: 3-4 dishes with low food costs
- Partial schedule: Open Friday-Sunday for lunch only
- Takeaway focus: Eliminate server wages
The hidden costs of closing
Closing creates ripple effects that don't show up on spreadsheets:
- Customer loss: Lunch guests might skip dinner too
- Visibility: A dark restaurant signals trouble
- Staff retention: Fewer hours means good employees leave
- Fixed costs: Rent and utilities spread over less revenue
💡 Rule of thumb:
If lunch consistently generates less than €150 net margin per day (after labor and food costs), closing often beats staying open.
Test it for a month
The smartest approach? Run a one-month test. Track these metrics:
- Total monthly revenue (lunch + dinner)
- Total labor cost
- Number of dinner guests (do they drop too?)
- Staff satisfaction
Food cost calculators help you track these figures and measure the real impact of your decision.
How do you calculate whether closing lunch makes sense?
Measure your current lunch figures
Track for 2 weeks: daily lunch revenue, number of covers, and staff costs during lunch. This gives you a realistic picture of what lunch brings in now.
Calculate your net margin per day
Subtract from your average daily lunch revenue: food cost (usually 25-35%) and labor cost. What's left is your contribution to fixed costs and profit.
Compare savings with loss
Savings = lunch labor cost. Loss = lunch net margin. If savings are higher than loss, closing might make sense.
Test for a month and measure the impact
Close for a trial month and monitor whether your total monthly revenue declines. Sometimes restaurants also lose dinner customers from closing lunch.
✨ Pro tip
Track your dinner covers for 8 weeks after closing lunch - if they drop by more than 15%, you're losing crossover customers and should consider reopening. The hidden customer loss often outweighs the labor savings.
Calculate this yourself?
In the KitchenNmbrs app you can do this in just a few clicks. 7 days free, no credit card.
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Frequently asked questions
How many covers do I need minimum to make lunch profitable?
This depends on your average check and labor costs. With €100 daily labor, you need at least 15-20 covers averaging €12-15 each. Below this threshold, you're likely losing money.
Can I run lunch with fewer staff?
Often yes. Try running lunch with one person and a simplified menu of 3-4 dishes. This cuts labor costs in half while maintaining some revenue stream.
What if I close lunch but lose dinner customers too?
This risk is real and hard to predict. Track your total monthly revenue before and after closing. If dinner revenue drops more than your lunch losses, reopening makes sense.
Which lunch dishes have the lowest food cost?
Pastas, soups and grain bowls typically run 20-25% food cost. Meat and fish dishes usually hit 30-35%. Focus your lunch menu on items under 30% food cost.
Should I factor fixed costs into this decision?
Fixed costs like rent and utilities run regardless of lunch service. Focus on marginal costs - what extra expenses does lunch create versus what revenue it generates.
How long should I test before making a permanent decision?
Test for at least 4-6 weeks, preferably 2-3 months. Customers need time to adjust their habits, so you won't see the full impact immediately.
What's the break-even point for reopening lunch service?
You need lunch to generate at least 1.5x your labor costs in gross revenue to break even after food costs. So if labor costs €80 daily, aim for €120+ in lunch sales minimum.
📚 Sources consulted
- EU Verordening 852/2004 — Levensmiddelenhygiëne (2004) — Official source
- EU Verordening 853/2004 — Hygiënevoorschriften voor levensmiddelen van dierlijke oorsprong (2004) — Official source
- EU Verordening 1169/2011 — Voedselinformatie aan consumenten (2011) — Official source
- NVWA — Hygiënecode voor de horeca (2024) — Official source
- NVWA — Allergenen in voedsel (2024) — Official source
- Codex Alimentarius — International Food Standards (2024) — Official source
- FSA — Safer food, better business (HACCP) (2024) — Official source
- BVL — Lebensmittelhygiene (HACCP) (2024) — Official source
- Warenwetbesluit Bereiding en behandeling van levensmiddelen (2024) — Official source
- WHO — Foodborne diseases estimates (2024) — Official source
Food Standards Agency (FSA) — https://www.food.gov.uk
The HACCP standards shown in this application are for informational purposes only. KitchenNmbrs does not guarantee that displayed values are current or complete. Always consult the FSA or your local authority for the latest regulations.
Written by
Jeffrey Smit
Founder & CEO of KitchenNmbrs
Jeffrey Smit built KitchenNmbrs from 8 years of hands-on experience as kitchen manager at 1NUL8 Group in Rotterdam. His mission: give every restaurant owner control over food cost.
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