As an entrepreneur, you often have to make decisions without having all the information. Your supplier raises prices, your chef wants to add a new dish, or your competitor lowers his prices. Waiting until you have all the numbers often means being too late. In this article you'll learn how to make smart choices with limited information.
The reality of incomplete information
In hospitality, you rarely have all the numbers at hand. You don't know exactly how many guests will come tonight, what your competitor makes on his steak, or what your food cost will look like if your supplier raises his prices.
Yet you have to decide. Now. Because standing still means falling behind.
Work with scenarios instead of exact figures
Instead of waiting for perfect data, you create three scenarios:
- Best case: What happens if everything goes your way?
- Realistic: What do you actually expect?
- Worst case: What if things go wrong?
💡 Example:
Your supplier raises beef by 15%. You sell 50 steaks per week at €32.00.
- Best case: You raise price to €35, guests accept it → +€150/week
- Realistic: You raise to €34, lose 10% of guests → +€63/week
- Worst case: You keep price the same, lose €3 per steak → -€150/week
Conclusion: Price increase is necessary, even if you lose some guests
The 80/20 rule for decisions
You don't need 100% of the information. With 80% you can already make good decisions. Focus on the figures that have the most impact:
- Your 5 best-selling dishes (80% of your revenue)
- Your 3 most expensive ingredients
- Your busiest days of the week
Reversible vs. irreversible decisions
Not all decisions are equally final. Make a distinction between:
Reversible decisions (low risk):
- Adjust menu price (you can change it again next month)
- Add a new dish (you can remove it if it doesn't sell)
- Switch suppliers for one product (you can reverse it)
Irreversible decisions (high risk):
- Fire a chef
- Renovate your kitchen
- Sign a contract for 2+ years
⚠️ Note:
For irreversible decisions: wait until you have more certainty. For reversible decisions: test quickly and adjust.
Quick wins: decisions with low risk
Some choices you can make without much data, because the risk is low:
- Test one new dish: Costs you a few hundred euros in ingredients at most
- Raise the price of one dish by €1: Easy to reverse
- Try a new supplier for one product: Order a small quantity
💡 Example:
You're wondering if you can make your pasta carbonara more expensive. Instead of hesitating for weeks:
- Week 1: Raise from €18 to €19
- Week 2: Measure how many you sell
- Week 3: Compare with last month
After 3 weeks you know if it works. If not, you lower the price again.
Use your gut feeling as extra data
Your experience as an entrepreneur is also data. If you've been in hospitality for years, you have a feel for:
- How guests react to price increases
- Which dishes will sell well
- When it gets busy
Combine this intuition with the figures you do have. That gives you a more complete picture than just numbers or just intuition alone.
Set deadlines for your decision
Without a deadline you'll keep hesitating endlessly. Tell yourself:
- "I'll decide on Friday whether to raise the price"
- "After the weekend I'll know if the new dish stays"
- "Next week I'll switch to the new supplier"
This forces you to work with the information you have, instead of endlessly gathering more data.
How do you make decisions with limited information?
Create three scenarios
Write down what happens in the best case, the realistic case, and the worst case. Calculate for each scenario what it costs or brings in.
Determine if the decision is reversible
Can you easily reverse the decision? Then the risk is low and you can decide faster. For irreversible choices, wait until you have more certainty.
Set a deadline and test small
Give yourself a deadline to decide. Start with a small test instead of changing everything at once. Measure the result and adjust.
✨ Pro tip
Keep a log of your decisions and their outcomes. After a year you'll see patterns: which choices worked out well and why. This helps you make your next decisions faster and better.
Calculate this yourself?
In the KitchenNmbrs app you can do this in just a few clicks. 7 days free, no credit card.
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Frequently asked questions
How do I know if I have enough information to decide?
You have enough information when you can create three scenarios and know what each choice roughly costs. Perfect data doesn't exist in hospitality.
What if my decision turns out wrong?
For reversible decisions, you simply reverse it. For irreversible choices, you learn from it for next time. No decision is often worse than a wrong decision.
Do I always have to create three scenarios?
Not always. For small decisions (like testing one dish) your gut feeling is often enough. For big choices (new supplier, price increase) scenarios really help.
How do I prevent myself from deciding too impulsively?
Always ask yourself: is this decision reversible? For irreversible choices, sleep on it. For reversible choices, you can act faster.
What if I hesitate too long over every decision?
Set deadlines for yourself and stick to them. After the deadline you decide with the information you have. Standing still often costs more than a wrong choice you can adjust.
📚 Sources consulted
- EU Verordening 852/2004 — Levensmiddelenhygiëne (2004) — Official source
- EU Verordening 853/2004 — Hygiënevoorschriften voor levensmiddelen van dierlijke oorsprong (2004) — Official source
- EU Verordening 1169/2011 — Voedselinformatie aan consumenten (2011) — Official source
- NVWA — Hygiënecode voor de horeca (2024) — Official source
- NVWA — Allergenen in voedsel (2024) — Official source
- Codex Alimentarius — International Food Standards (2024) — Official source
- FSA — Safer food, better business (HACCP) (2024) — Official source
- BVL — Lebensmittelhygiene (HACCP) (2024) — Official source
- Warenwetbesluit Bereiding en behandeling van levensmiddelen (2024) — Official source
- WHO — Foodborne diseases estimates (2024) — Official source
Food Standards Agency (FSA) — https://www.food.gov.uk
The HACCP standards shown in this application are for informational purposes only. KitchenNmbrs does not guarantee that displayed values are current or complete. Always consult the FSA or your local authority for the latest regulations.
Written by
Jeffrey Smit
Founder & CEO of KitchenNmbrs
Jeffrey Smit built KitchenNmbrs from 8 years of hands-on experience as kitchen manager at 1NUL8 Group in Rotterdam. His mission: give every restaurant owner control over food cost.
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