Restaurant owners make over 40 decisions daily, yet 73% admit they rarely have complete data before choosing. Your supplier hikes beef prices overnight, your chef wants to test three new appetizers, or a competing platformggest competitor just cut their lunch prices by 20%. You can't afford to wait for perfect numbers.
The reality of incomplete information
In hospitality, complete data is a luxury you don't have. You can't predict tonight's walk-ins, your competitor's actual profit margins, or how a 12% supplier increase will hit your bottom line next quarter.
But here's what you can do: decide anyway. Standing still kills restaurants faster than wrong moves you can fix.
Work with scenarios instead of exact figures
Ditch the hunt for perfect numbers. Build three scenarios instead:
- Best case: Everything breaks your way
- Realistic: Your honest expectation
- Worst case: Murphy's law strikes
? Example:
Your supplier bumps beef up 15%. You move 50 steaks weekly at €32.00.
- Best case: Price jumps to €35, customers don't flinch → +€150/week
- Realistic: You hit €34, lose 10% of orders → +€63/week
- Worst case: You absorb the cost, eat €3 per steak → -€150/week
Result: Price increase isn't optional, even with some customer loss
The 80/20 rule for decisions
You don't need every data point. Eighty percent gets you there. Zero in on what moves the needle:
- Your top 5 dishes (they drive 80% of revenue)
- Your 3 priciest ingredients
- Your peak service days
Based on real restaurant P&L data we've analyzed, most owners obsess over minor menu items while ignoring their profit engines. Focus your energy where it counts.
Reversible vs. irreversible decisions
Not every choice carries the same weight. Sort them into two buckets:
Reversible decisions (low stakes):
- Menu price tweaks (change them next month)
- New dish trials (86 it if it flops)
- Single-product supplier swaps (easy to undo)
Irreversible decisions (high stakes):
- Staff terminations
- Kitchen renovations
- Multi-year contracts
⚠️ Note:
Irreversible choices demand more certainty. Reversible ones? Test fast, adjust faster.
Quick wins: decisions with minimal risk
Some moves you can make right now, because the downside's tiny:
- One new dish test: A few hundred in ingredients, max
- Single €1 price bump: Reverse it next week if needed
- New supplier trial: Start with a small order
? Example:
Unsure if your carbonara can handle a price jump? Stop overthinking:
- Week 1: Bump from €18 to €19
- Week 2: Track sales volume
- Week 3: Compare to last month's numbers
Three weeks gives you the answer. If it backfires, drop the price back down.
Use your gut feeling as extra data
Your restaurant experience isn't just intuition—it's data. Years in hospitality teach you:
- Customer price sensitivity patterns
- Which dishes will hit or miss
- Rush timing and seasonal shifts
Blend this instinct with your hard numbers. Pure data misses context. Pure gut feeling ignores reality. Together, they work.
Set deadlines for your decision
No deadline means endless hesitation. Lock yourself in:
- "Friday I'm deciding on the price increase"
- "The new appetizer gets three weeks to prove itself"
- "I'm switching suppliers by month-end"
Deadlines force you to work with available information instead of chasing perfect data that doesn't exist.
Related articles
How do you make decisions with limited information?
Create three scenarios
Write down what happens in the best case, the realistic case, and the worst case. Calculate for each scenario what it costs or brings in.
Determine if the decision is reversible
Can you easily reverse the decision? Then the risk is low and you can decide faster. For irreversible choices, wait until you have more certainty.
Set a deadline and test small
Give yourself a deadline to decide. Start with a small test instead of changing everything at once. Measure the result and adjust.
✨ Pro tip
Track your last 15 decisions over the next 90 days—what you chose, why you chose it, and how it played out. You'll spot patterns in what works and build confidence for faster future calls.
Calculate this yourself?
In the KitchenNmbrs app you can do this in just a few clicks. 7 days free, no credit card.
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Frequently asked questions
How do I know if I have enough information to decide?
What if my decision backfires completely?
Should I always create scenarios for every choice?
Sources consulted
- EU Verordening 852/2004 — Levensmiddelenhygiëne (2004) — Official source
- EU Verordening 853/2004 — Hygiënevoorschriften voor levensmiddelen van dierlijke oorsprong (2004) — Official source
- EU Verordening 1169/2011 — Voedselinformatie aan consumenten (2011) — Official source
- NVWA — Hygiënecode voor de horeca (2024) — Official source
- NVWA — Allergenen in voedsel (2024) — Official source
- Codex Alimentarius — International Food Standards (2024) — Official source
- FSA — Safer food, better business (HACCP) (2024) — Official source
- BVL — Lebensmittelhygiene (HACCP) (2024) — Official source
Food Standards Agency (FSA) — https://www.food.gov.uk
The HACCP standards shown in this application are for informational purposes only. KitchenNmbrs does not guarantee that displayed values are current or complete. Always consult the FSA or your local authority for the latest regulations.
Written by
Jeffrey Smit
Founder & CEO of KitchenNmbrs
Jeffrey Smit built KitchenNmbrs from 8 years of hands-on experience as kitchen manager at 1NUL8 Group in Rotterdam. His mission: give every restaurant owner control over food cost.
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