A typical ghost kitchen needs 75-120 orders daily just to break even. Without dining room revenue, your survival depends entirely on hitting delivery volume targets. Here's how to calculate your exact minimum.
Gather your fixed costs per month
Start with all the costs you have every month, regardless of how much you sell:
- Kitchen rent: €2,000 - €4,000
- Staff: €3,000 - €8,000
- Energy: €400 - €800
- Insurance: €200 - €400
- Platform subscriptions: €100 - €300
- Packaging materials: €300 - €600
💡 Example:
Ghost kitchen with 1 chef and 1 assistant:
- Rent: €2,500
- Staff: €5,200
- Energy: €600
- Insurance: €300
- Other: €400
Total fixed costs: €9,000/month
Calculate your average order value and margin
Look at your platform data from the past month. You need two figures:
- Average order value: Total revenue ÷ number of orders
- Platform fees: 15-30% of your order value goes to Deliveroo/Uber Eats
- Food cost: Usually 28-35% for delivery
- Packaging costs: €0.80 - €1.50 per order
💡 Example margin calculation:
Average order: €18.50
- Platform fee (25%): €4.63
- Food cost (32%): €5.92
- Packaging: €1.20
- VAT (9%): €1.53
Net per order: €18.50 - €4.63 - €5.92 - €1.20 - €1.53 = €5.22
⚠️ Note:
Platform fees differ by provider and can change. Check your current fees in your dashboard. Always calculate margins excluding VAT.
Calculate your break-even point
Now you can figure out how many orders you need minimum:
Break-even orders per month = Fixed costs ÷ Net margin per order
Divide this by the number of working days for your daily minimum.
💡 Example break-even:
Fixed costs: €9,000/month
Net per order: €5.22
Break-even: €9,000 ÷ €5.22 = 1,725 orders/month
Per day (25 working days): 69 orders/day
Plan your profit margin
Break-even isn't enough. You want actual profit. Add 20-30% to your break-even for healthy margins:
- For 20% profit: Break-even × 1.2
- For 30% profit: Break-even × 1.3
💡 Example profit target:
Break-even: 69 orders/day
For 25% profit: 69 × 1.25 = 86 orders/day
This gives €1,800 profit per month
Track your numbers daily
After managing kitchen operations for nearly a decade, I've learned that ghost kitchens live or die by daily tracking. Check every day:
- Number of orders vs. your minimum
- Average order value (rising/falling?)
- Platform fees (change regularly)
- Packaging costs per order
- Food cost of your most popular dishes
Food cost calculators show your per-dish margins directly and let you adjust quickly if profits drop.
How do you calculate your required orders? (step by step)
Add up all fixed costs
Make a list of rent, staff, energy, insurance and other monthly costs. These are costs you have regardless of your revenue.
Calculate net margin per order
Subtract from your average order value: platform fees, food cost, packaging costs and VAT. This is what you keep net per order.
Divide fixed costs by net margin
Fixed costs ÷ net margin per order = break-even number of orders per month. Divide by working days for your daily minimum.
✨ Pro tip
Track your daily orders against your 86-order target for 30 consecutive days. Most ghost kitchens fail because they don't realize they're 15-20 orders short daily until it's too late.
Calculate this yourself?
In the KitchenNmbrs app you can do this in just a few clicks. 7 days free, no credit card.
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Frequently asked questions
What if my average order value fluctuates?
Calculate with the average of the last 3 months. Check monthly whether your break-even point still holds and adjust your prices or menu if needed.
Should I create different break-even points per platform?
Yes, if your fees differ significantly. Deliveroo often has different fees than Uber Eats. Calculate per platform and see where you're most profitable.
What about seasonal fluctuations?
Calculate your break-even for your slowest month. If you're profitable then, you'll have extra buffer in busy periods for investments or unexpected costs.
How much profit is realistic for a ghost kitchen?
Healthy ghost kitchens make 15-25% net profit. More than 25% is excellent, less than 10% is risky. Plan for at least 20% buffer for unexpected costs.
📚 Sources consulted
- EU Verordening 852/2004 — Levensmiddelenhygiëne (2004) — Official source
- EU Verordening 853/2004 — Hygiënevoorschriften voor levensmiddelen van dierlijke oorsprong (2004) — Official source
- EU Verordening 1169/2011 — Voedselinformatie aan consumenten (2011) — Official source
- NVWA — Hygiënecode voor de horeca (2024) — Official source
- NVWA — Allergenen in voedsel (2024) — Official source
- Codex Alimentarius — International Food Standards (2024) — Official source
- FSA — Safer food, better business (HACCP) (2024) — Official source
- BVL — Lebensmittelhygiene (HACCP) (2024) — Official source
- Warenwetbesluit Bereiding en behandeling van levensmiddelen (2024) — Official source
- WHO — Foodborne diseases estimates (2024) — Official source
Food Standards Agency (FSA) — https://www.food.gov.uk
The HACCP standards shown in this application are for informational purposes only. KitchenNmbrs does not guarantee that displayed values are current or complete. Always consult the FSA or your local authority for the latest regulations.
Written by
Jeffrey Smit
Founder & CEO of KitchenNmbrs
Jeffrey Smit built KitchenNmbrs from 8 years of hands-on experience as kitchen manager at 1NUL8 Group in Rotterdam. His mission: give every restaurant owner control over food cost.
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