Seasonal fruit can cause your brunch food cost to fluctuate significantly. Strawberries cost €8/kg in January, €3/kg in June - that's €5 per kilo difference on your yogurt parfait. In this article, you'll learn how to track these price fluctuations and adjust your menu prices accordingly.
Why seasonal fruit makes your food cost fluctuate
Fruit is one of the most volatile ingredients in your kitchen. A smoothie bowl with fresh berries can have 40% food cost in winter, 25% in summer. Without adjustments, you'll lose money for months.
💡 Example:
Acai bowl (€12.50 incl. VAT = €11.47 excl. VAT):
- Winter: strawberries €8/kg, blueberries €12/kg
- Summer: strawberries €3/kg, blueberries €6/kg
- Difference per bowl: €2.50
Food cost winter: 35% | Food cost summer: 22%
Gather your current fruit prices
Start by getting an overview of what you're paying now. Record the price per kilo of all your brunch fruit for the coming months.
- Check your invoices from the past 3 months
- Call your supplier for seasonal price indications
- Distinguish between organic and conventional
- Note: frozen fruit has less price fluctuation
⚠️ Heads up:
Always calculate with net weight. A kilo of strawberries becomes 850 grams after washing and removing the hulls.
Calculate your seasonal impact per dish
For each brunch dish with fruit, create a winter and summer version of the cost price. This shows you exactly where the biggest impact is.
💡 Example calculation:
Yogurt parfait with 150g mixed fruit:
- Winter: €1.80 fruit (12% of €15 = 36% food cost)
- Summer: €0.90 fruit (6% of €15 = 24% food cost)
- Difference: 12 percentage points food cost
At 200 parfaits/month: €180 difference
Strategies for stable margins
You have three options to handle seasonal fluctuations. Each strategy has pros and cons.
- Fixed prices: Accept lower margins in expensive months
- Seasonal menu: Rotate dishes by season
- Flexible prices: Adjust menu price per quarter
- Mix strategy: Combine fresh and frozen fruit
💡 Mix strategy example:
Smoothie bowl winter adjustment:
- 50% fresh strawberries (€8/kg)
- 50% frozen strawberries (€4/kg)
- Average price: €6/kg
Food cost stays stable around 28%
When to adjust your menu price
If your food cost rises more than 5 percentage points due to seasonal effects, consider a price adjustment. For smaller fluctuations, you can often compensate elsewhere.
- Food cost rises from 25% to 35%: adjust price
- Food cost rises from 28% to 32%: usually acceptable
- Check this monthly for your top 5 brunch dishes
⚠️ Heads up:
Customers accept seasonal price changes better than arbitrary increases. Communicate this clearly.
How do you calculate seasonal impact? (step by step)
Inventory your fruit usage
Make a list of all fruit types you use in brunch dishes. Note how many grams you use on average per dish and how many dishes you sell per month.
Gather seasonal prices
Ask your supplier for price indications for winter, spring, summer, and fall. Also note the prices of frozen alternatives as a backup option.
Calculate food cost per season
Calculate the food cost for each brunch dish using winter and summer prices. Use the formula: (ingredient costs / selling price excl. VAT) × 100.
Determine your strategy
Choose per dish whether you adjust the price, change the recipe, or accept the seasonal fluctuation. Document this so your team knows what's changing.
✨ Pro tip
Check your top 3 fruit dishes every month and recalculate the food cost. This prevents you from losing money for months without noticing.
Calculate this yourself?
In the KitchenNmbrs app you can do this in just a few clicks. 7 days free, no credit card.
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Frequently asked questions
How much can my food cost fluctuate due to seasons?
A fluctuation of 3-5 percentage points is normal and acceptable. If the difference is more than 5 percentage points, it's wise to adjust your strategy.
Do I need to adjust my menu price every month?
No, that confuses customers. Adjust prices at most 2-3 times per year, during clear seasonal changes. Smaller fluctuations you can absorb in your margin.
Is frozen fruit a good solution?
Yes, for smoothies and hot dishes frozen works well. It has stable prices and less waste. For garnishing and raw applications, fresh fruit is still needed.
How do I communicate seasonal prices to customers?
Be honest about seasonality. Write 'seasonal fruit' or 'price varies by season' on your menu. Customers usually understand this.
Which brunch dishes are most sensitive to seasons?
Smoothie bowls, fresh fruit salads, and yogurt parfaits fluctuate the most. Hot dishes like pancakes with fruit are less sensitive due to smaller fruit portions.
📚 Sources consulted
- EU Verordening 852/2004 — Levensmiddelenhygiëne (2004) — Official source
- EU Verordening 853/2004 — Hygiënevoorschriften voor levensmiddelen van dierlijke oorsprong (2004) — Official source
- EU Verordening 1169/2011 — Voedselinformatie aan consumenten (2011) — Official source
- NVWA — Hygiënecode voor de horeca (2024) — Official source
- NVWA — Allergenen in voedsel (2024) — Official source
- Codex Alimentarius — International Food Standards (2024) — Official source
- FSA — Safer food, better business (HACCP) (2024) — Official source
- BVL — Lebensmittelhygiene (HACCP) (2024) — Official source
- Warenwetbesluit Bereiding en behandeling van levensmiddelen (2024) — Official source
- WHO — Foodborne diseases estimates (2024) — Official source
Food Standards Agency (FSA) — https://www.food.gov.uk
The HACCP standards shown in this application are for informational purposes only. KitchenNmbrs does not guarantee that displayed values are current or complete. Always consult the FSA or your local authority for the latest regulations.
Written by
Jeffrey Smit
Founder & CEO of KitchenNmbrs
Jeffrey Smit built KitchenNmbrs from 8 years of hands-on experience as kitchen manager at 1NUL8 Group in Rotterdam. His mission: give every restaurant owner control over food cost.
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