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📝 Starting a restaurant & business plan · ⏱️ 2 min read

How do I create an opening schedule based on expected visitor numbers?

📝 KitchenNmbrs · updated 16 Mar 2026

Creating smart opening schedules prevents paying staff for empty seats. Most restaurant owners guess their hours, bleeding money during slow periods. Data-driven decisions about operating hours can make or break your bottom line.

Gather data about your expected visitors

New restaurants don't have historical data, but you can build realistic estimates. Use these sources:

  • Location analysis: Count foot traffic at different times of day
  • Competition: Check when similar businesses in your area are busy
  • Target audience: Lunch crowd vs. dinner crowd have different times
  • Seasons: Summer vs. winter can make a big difference

💡 Example:

Bistro on shopping street, 40 seats:

  • Lunch (12:00-15:00): 60% occupancy = 24 covers
  • Dinner (18:00-22:00): 80% occupancy = 32 covers
  • Between times (15:00-18:00): 20% occupancy = 8 covers

Question: is that between time profitable?

Calculate your break-even point per time slot

For each time slot you need to know: how many covers do you need at minimum to cover costs?

Formula for break-even covers per hour:
Break-even = (Fixed costs per hour) / (Average margin per cover)

💡 Example calculation:

Costs during opening hours:

  • Staff: €25/hour (chef + service)
  • Energy: €8/hour (lighting, cooling, kitchen)
  • Other: €5/hour (music, cleaning, wear and tear)

Total: €38/hour fixed costs

Average bill: €22 per person
Margin after food cost (30%): €22 × 0.70 = €15.40

Break-even: €38 / €15.40 = 2.5 covers per hour

Analyze different scenarios

Create an overview of different opening schedules and their financial impact. From years of working in professional kitchens, I've seen too many places open all day just because "restaurants should be open."

⚠️ Note:

Don't forget the 'startup costs' per day. Every time you open you need at least 1-2 hours of prep time and closing time. Count these in your first and last hour.

ScenarioOpening hoursHours per dayFixed costsRequired covers
Lunch only11:30-15:304 hours€15210 covers
Dinner only17:30-22:305 hours€19012 covers
Lunch + dinner11:30-22:3011 hours€41827 covers

Test and adjust based on reality

Start conservatively and expand as the numbers allow:

  • Week 1-4: Open only during your strongest expected times
  • Week 5-8: Test expansion with one additional time slot
  • Month 3+: Analyze which times are structurally profitable

💡 Example test period:

Month 1: Dinner only (Tue-Sun 17:30-22:30)

Month 2: + Weekend lunch (Sat-Sun 12:00-15:00)

Month 3: + Weekday lunch (Wed-Fri 12:00-15:00)

Each time slot should be tested for at least 3 weeks for reliable data.

Account for seasons and events

Your opening schedule doesn't have to be the same all year:

  • Summer: Possibly open later, longer evenings
  • Winter: Close earlier, less lunch traffic
  • Holidays: Adjusted hours or closed
  • Local events: Extra opening hours during festivals or markets

A food cost calculator helps you track daily covers and revenue, so you can make data-driven decisions about your opening hours.

How do you create an opening schedule? (step by step)

1

Calculate your break-even per hour

Add up your fixed costs per hour (staff + energy + other). Divide this by your average margin per cover. This gives you the minimum number of guests per hour.

2

Estimate expected visitors per time slot

Analyze your location, target audience, and competition. Make realistic estimates for lunch, dinner, and between times. Start conservatively.

3

Compare scenarios and test

Create a table with different opening hours and their costs. Start with the most promising times and expand step by step based on actual results.

✨ Pro tip

Test each new time slot for exactly 4 weeks before making permanent decisions. Track covers per 2-hour blocks to identify your most profitable windows.

Calculate this yourself?

In the KitchenNmbrs app you can do this in just a few clicks. 7 days free, no credit card.

Try KitchenNmbrs free →

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Frequently asked questions

Should I be open for all desired times right away?

No, start conservatively with your strongest expected times. You can always expand, but losses in the first months are hard to recover from.

What if a time slot is just barely not profitable?

See if you can lower costs with fewer staff or increase revenue through targeted marketing. If neither works after 4 weeks, close that time slot.

How do I handle seasonal fluctuations in my schedule?

Adjust your hours quarterly based on actual data. Summer might support longer evening hours, while winter typically sees reduced lunch traffic. Track patterns for at least one full year.

⚠️ EU Regulation 1169/2011 — Allergen Information https://eur-lex.europa.eu/eli/reg/2011/1169/oj

The allergen information on this page is based on EU Regulation 1169/2011. Recipes and ingredients may vary by supplier. Always verify current allergen information with your supplier and communicate this correctly to your guests. KitchenNmbrs is not liable for allergic reactions.

In the UK, the FSA enforces allergen regulations under the Food Information Regulations 2014.

ℹ️ This article was prepared based on official sources and professional expertise. While we strive for current and accurate information, the content may differ from the most recent regulations. Always consult the official authorities for binding standards.

📚 Sources consulted

Food Standards Agency (FSA) https://www.food.gov.uk

The HACCP standards shown in this application are for informational purposes only. KitchenNmbrs does not guarantee that displayed values are current or complete. Always consult the FSA or your local authority for the latest regulations.

JS

Written by

Jeffrey Smit

Founder & CEO of KitchenNmbrs

Jeffrey Smit built KitchenNmbrs from 8 years of hands-on experience as kitchen manager at 1NUL8 Group in Rotterdam. His mission: give every restaurant owner control over food cost.

🏆 8 years kitchen manager at 1NUL8 Group Rotterdam
Expertise: food cost management HACCP kitchen management restaurant operations food safety compliance

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