Last month, a pizzeria owner watched his shrimp costs jump from €18 to €35 per kilo overnight. His seafood pizza went from profitable to barely breaking even. Here's how to calculate margins when seafood prices swing wildly.
Why seafood can eat into your margin
Pizzas seem simple to calculate. Dough, sauce, cheese — those prices stay put. But seafood? That's unpredictable. Shrimp can go from €18 to €35 per kilo in just a few weeks.
⚠️ Watch out:
Many pizzerias don't update their food cost when ingredient prices rise. This means you're unknowingly earning less on every pizza.
Calculate your base food cost per pizza
Start with the fixed ingredients. They make up 70-80% of your food cost and stay fairly stable:
- Pizza dough: flour, yeast, oil, salt
- Tomato sauce: tomatoes, herbs, oil
- Cheese: mozzarella or blend
- Olive oil and herbs
💡 Example basic pizza (Ø 30cm):
- Dough (300g): €0.45
- Tomato sauce (80g): €0.25
- Mozzarella (120g): €1.80
- Olive oil and herbs: €0.15
Base food cost: €2.65
Calculate with minimum and maximum seafood prices
Seafood's the variable factor. Always calculate two scenarios: cheap and expensive. This way you know what your margin will be in both cases.
💡 Example shrimp (100g per pizza):
Scenario 1 - Low price:
- Shrimp: €18/kg = €1.80 per 100g
- Total food cost: €2.65 + €1.80 = €4.45
Scenario 2 - High price:
- Shrimp: €35/kg = €3.50 per 100g
- Total food cost: €2.65 + €3.50 = €6.15
Calculate your margin in both scenarios
With a fixed selling price, you'll get two different margins. Check if both are still profitable. I've seen restaurants lose €200-400 monthly because they didn't adjust for price swings - a mistake that adds up fast.
💡 Example at €16.50 selling price:
Selling price excl. VAT: €16.50 / 1.09 = €15.14
Low shrimp price:
- Food cost: €4.45 / €15.14 × 100 = 29.4%
- Margin: €15.14 - €4.45 = €10.69
High shrimp price:
- Food cost: €6.15 / €15.14 × 100 = 40.6%
- Margin: €15.14 - €6.15 = €8.99
Three strategies for changing prices
1. Flexible menu price: Adjust your price during big swings. Increase by €2-3 if seafood becomes 50% more expensive.
2. Seasonal offerings: Remove the pizza from the menu if seafood gets too expensive. Replace it with an alternative using more stable ingredients.
3. Average purchasing: Buy seafood at different price levels. This smooths out the fluctuations.
⚠️ Watch out:
Check your supplier price at least once a week. Seafood can change quickly due to season, weather, or demand.
Track your margins with digital tools
Manually tracking changing prices eats up time. A food cost calculator helps you quickly run different scenarios and keep your margins current.
You can record multiple suppliers and prices per ingredient, so you immediately see the impact on your margin. No more Excel sheets you forget to update.
How do you calculate pizza margin with changing prices? (step by step)
Calculate your fixed base food cost
Add up all stable ingredients: dough, sauce, cheese, oil and herbs. This makes up 70-80% of your food cost and changes little.
Check current seafood price with supplier
Call or email your supplier for the current price per kilo. Calculate what your portion (usually 80-120g) costs per pizza.
Calculate total food cost and food cost percentage
Add base + seafood. Divide by your selling price excl. VAT and multiply by 100 for your food cost percentage.
Create scenarios for high and low prices
Calculate your margin with both cheap and expensive seafood. This way you know if your pizza always stays profitable.
Decide your strategy for price increases
Decide in advance: do you raise the menu price, remove the pizza from the menu, or accept lower margin? Plan this ahead of time.
✨ Pro tip
Run both price scenarios every 2 weeks for your seafood pizzas. Calculate margins at current prices and at 30% higher seafood costs - this prevents nasty surprises.
Calculate this yourself?
In the KitchenNmbrs app you can do this in just a few clicks. 7 days free, no credit card.
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Frequently asked questions
How often should I check my food cost with changing ingredient prices?
Check your supplier price at least once a week for expensive ingredients like seafood. With major fluctuations over 20%, adjust your calculation immediately.
What is an acceptable food cost for seafood pizzas?
For pizzas, typically 25-32% food cost applies. With seafood this can go up to 35% due to higher ingredient value. Above 40% it becomes hard to be profitable.
How do I communicate price changes to guests?
Be transparent: add 'Prices may vary by season' on your menu. Or work with daily specials where the price can change depending on market price.
Which seafood has the most stable prices?
Squid and mussels are usually more stable than shrimp or lobster. Frozen seafood fluctuates less than fresh, but has different taste properties.
📚 Sources consulted
- EU Verordening 852/2004 — Levensmiddelenhygiëne (2004) — Official source
- EU Verordening 853/2004 — Hygiënevoorschriften voor levensmiddelen van dierlijke oorsprong (2004) — Official source
- EU Verordening 1169/2011 — Voedselinformatie aan consumenten (2011) — Official source
- NVWA — Hygiënecode voor de horeca (2024) — Official source
- NVWA — Allergenen in voedsel (2024) — Official source
- Codex Alimentarius — International Food Standards (2024) — Official source
- FSA — Safer food, better business (HACCP) (2024) — Official source
- BVL — Lebensmittelhygiene (HACCP) (2024) — Official source
- Warenwetbesluit Bereiding en behandeling van levensmiddelen (2024) — Official source
- WHO — Foodborne diseases estimates (2024) — Official source
Food Standards Agency (FSA) — https://www.food.gov.uk
The HACCP standards shown in this application are for informational purposes only. KitchenNmbrs does not guarantee that displayed values are current or complete. Always consult the FSA or your local authority for the latest regulations.
Written by
Jeffrey Smit
Founder & CEO of KitchenNmbrs
Jeffrey Smit built KitchenNmbrs from 8 years of hands-on experience as kitchen manager at 1NUL8 Group in Rotterdam. His mission: give every restaurant owner control over food cost.
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