Seasonal ingredients can completely change your profitability within a week. Asparagus costs €12/kg in April, €28/kg in June. If you don't adjust your menu price, your profit evaporates. In this article, you'll learn how to quickly calculate whether a seasonal dish is still profitable and when you need to take action.
Check your current food cost percentage
Start by calculating your current food cost with the new purchase price. This gives you immediate insight into the impact of the price increase.
💡 Example:
Your asparagus menu cost last month:
- Asparagus: €12/kg (400g per portion) = €4.80
- Other ingredients: €3.20
- Total ingredients: €8.00
- Menu price: €28.50 incl. VAT (€26.15 excl. VAT)
Food cost then: 30.6%
Now asparagus has become €22/kg. The same portion now costs:
💡 New calculation:
- Asparagus: €22/kg (400g per portion) = €8.80
- Other ingredients: €3.20
- Total ingredients: €12.00
- Same menu price: €26.15 excl. VAT
New food cost: 45.9%
⚠️ Note:
A food cost of 45.9% means you're probably losing money on this dish. Most restaurants keep it under 35%.
Calculate your break-even point
Determine at what menu price your dish becomes profitable again with the new purchase price. Use your desired food cost percentage for this.
The formula: Minimum selling price = Ingredient costs / (Desired food cost / 100)
💡 Break-even calculation:
With €12.00 ingredient costs and 30% desired food cost:
- €12.00 / 0.30 = €40.00 excl. VAT
- €40.00 × 1.09 = €43.60 incl. VAT
You would need to charge €43.60 instead of €28.50
Analyze your options
You have four options to respond to the price increase. Each has pros and cons:
- Raise menu price: Maintain your margin, but risk lower sales
- Reduce portion size: 300g asparagus instead of 400g saves €2.20 per plate
- Adjust recipe: Less expensive ingredients, more filler
- Temporarily remove from menu: Wait until prices drop
Test the impact on your revenue
A price increase from €28.50 to €35.00 sounds dramatic, but calculate what it means for your total revenue.
💡 Revenue impact:
Suppose you normally sell 50 asparagus menus per week:
- Old price: 50 × €28.50 = €1,425
- New price with 20% less sales: 40 × €35.00 = €1,400
- Difference: -€25 revenue, but +€280 margin
Even with lower sales, you can earn more.
⚠️ Note:
Monitor your sales figures for the first two weeks after a price adjustment. If sales drop more than 30%, consider a different strategy.
Use a seasonal calendar for planning
Avoid surprises by tracking seasonal prices and having alternative suppliers. Create a plan for when you feature which dishes on your menu.
- Asparagus: April-June, peak in May
- Oysters: September-April, more expensive in summer
- Game dishes: October-February
- Summer fruit: June-September
A system like KitchenNmbrs helps you quickly calculate what price changes mean for your food cost, without having to calculate manually.
How do you calculate the impact of a price increase? (step by step)
Calculate your new ingredient costs
Add up all ingredients with the new prices. Don't forget additional costs like packaging or extra prep time. Note the difference from the old cost price.
Check your new food cost percentage
Divide your new ingredient costs by your current selling price (excl. VAT) and multiply by 100. If this exceeds 35%, you're probably losing money.
Calculate your new minimum price
Divide your ingredient costs by your desired food cost (for example 0.30 for 30%). Multiply by 1.09 for the price including VAT. This is your break-even point.
✨ Pro tip
Always set a range in your cost price calculation for seasonal dishes. Calculate with the highest expected purchase price, not the lowest. That way you won't have surprises.
Calculate this yourself?
In the KitchenNmbrs app you can do this in just a few clicks. 7 days free, no credit card.
Was this article helpful?
Frequently asked questions
How much can I raise my price without losing customers?
An increase of 10-15% is usually accepted if you communicate it well. Explain that it's about seasonal ingredients and emphasize the quality.
Is it better to wait until prices drop again?
That depends on how long the season lasts and how much revenue you lose. For asparagus (short season) waiting can be smart, for structural price increases it's not.
Do I need to adjust all seasonal dishes at once?
No, check each dish separately. Some have more margin and can absorb an increase, others are already tightly priced and need immediate adjustment.
How often should I check my prices during the season?
For volatile ingredients like fish and seasonal vegetables, check at least weekly. For more stable products, monthly is sufficient.
Can I adjust the portion size instead of raising the price?
Yes, but be transparent. 20% smaller portions are noticeable to guests. Better to adjust the recipe with more filler and less of the expensive ingredient.
⚠️ EU Regulation 1169/2011 — Allergen Information — https://eur-lex.europa.eu/eli/reg/2011/1169/oj
The allergen information on this page is based on EU Regulation 1169/2011. Recipes and ingredients may vary by supplier. Always verify current allergen information with your supplier and communicate this correctly to your guests. KitchenNmbrs is not liable for allergic reactions.
In the UK, the FSA enforces allergen regulations under the Food Information Regulations 2014.
📚 Sources consulted
- EU Verordening 852/2004 — Levensmiddelenhygiëne (2004) — Official source
- EU Verordening 853/2004 — Hygiënevoorschriften voor levensmiddelen van dierlijke oorsprong (2004) — Official source
- EU Verordening 1169/2011 — Voedselinformatie aan consumenten (2011) — Official source
- NVWA — Hygiënecode voor de horeca (2024) — Official source
- NVWA — Allergenen in voedsel (2024) — Official source
- Codex Alimentarius — International Food Standards (2024) — Official source
- FSA — Safer food, better business (HACCP) (2024) — Official source
- BVL — Lebensmittelhygiene (HACCP) (2024) — Official source
- Warenwetbesluit Bereiding en behandeling van levensmiddelen (2024) — Official source
- WHO — Foodborne diseases estimates (2024) — Official source
Food Standards Agency (FSA) — https://www.food.gov.uk
The HACCP standards shown in this application are for informational purposes only. KitchenNmbrs does not guarantee that displayed values are current or complete. Always consult the FSA or your local authority for the latest regulations.
Written by
Jeffrey Smit
Founder & CEO of KitchenNmbrs
Jeffrey Smit built KitchenNmbrs from 8 years of hands-on experience as kitchen manager at 1NUL8 Group in Rotterdam. His mission: give every restaurant owner control over food cost.
Purchase smarter with real-time insights
Seasonal prices fluctuate — so do your recipe costs. KitchenNmbrs automatically recalculates your margins when purchase prices change. Never get surprised again. Start free.
Start free trial →