What happens to your profit margins when asparagus jumps from €12/kg to €28/kg overnight? Seasonal price swings can destroy your dish profitability faster than you realize. You need a clear system to calculate whether that seasonal special still makes financial sense.
Check your current food cost percentage
Start by calculating your current food cost with the new purchase price. This gives you immediate insight into the impact of the price increase.
? Example:
Your asparagus menu cost last month:
- Asparagus: €12/kg (400g per portion) = €4.80
- Other ingredients: €3.20
- Total ingredients: €8.00
- Menu price: €28.50 incl. VAT (€26.15 excl. VAT)
Food cost then: 30.6%
Now asparagus has jumped to €22/kg. The same portion now costs:
? New calculation:
- Asparagus: €22/kg (400g per portion) = €8.80
- Other ingredients: €3.20
- Total ingredients: €12.00
- Same menu price: €26.15 excl. VAT
New food cost: 45.9%
⚠️ Note:
A food cost of 45.9% means you're probably losing money on this dish. Most restaurants keep it under 35%.
Calculate your break-even point
Determine at what menu price your dish becomes profitable again with the new purchase price. Use your target food cost percentage for this calculation.
The formula: Minimum selling price = Ingredient costs / (Target food cost / 100)
? Break-even calculation:
With €12.00 ingredient costs and 30% target food cost:
- €12.00 / 0.30 = €40.00 excl. VAT
- €40.00 × 1.09 = €43.60 incl. VAT
You'd need to charge €43.60 instead of €28.50
Analyze your options
You've got four main strategies to handle the price spike. Each comes with trade-offs:
- Raise menu price: Protect your margin, but risk customer pushback
- Reduce portion size: 300g asparagus instead of 400g saves €2.20 per plate
- Adjust recipe: Less expensive ingredients, more supporting elements
- Pull from menu temporarily: Wait for prices to stabilize
Test the impact on your revenue
A price jump from €28.50 to €35.00 sounds scary, but run the numbers on what it actually means for your bottom line. From years of working in professional kitchens, I've seen restaurants panic over price increases that actually improved their profitability.
? Revenue impact:
Say you normally sell 50 asparagus dishes per week:
- Old price: 50 × €28.50 = €1,425
- New price with 20% fewer sales: 40 × €35.00 = €1,400
- Difference: -€25 revenue, but +€280 margin
Even with lower sales, you can earn more.
⚠️ Note:
Track your sales numbers for the first two weeks after any price adjustment. If sales drop more than 30%, consider switching strategies.
Use a seasonal calendar for planning
Don't get caught off guard by predictable price swings. Track seasonal patterns and line up backup suppliers. Plan which dishes you'll feature during different months.
- Asparagus: April-June, peak pricing in May
- Oysters: September-April, premium rates in summer
- Game dishes: October-February
- Summer fruit: June-September
Tools like KitchenNmbrs help you quickly calculate what price changes mean for your food cost, without manual spreadsheet work.
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How do you calculate the impact of a price increase? (step by step)
Calculate your new ingredient costs
Add up all ingredients with the new prices. Don't forget additional costs like packaging or extra prep time. Note the difference from the old cost price.
Check your new food cost percentage
Divide your new ingredient costs by your current selling price (excl. VAT) and multiply by 100. If this exceeds 35%, you're probably losing money.
Calculate your new minimum price
Divide your ingredient costs by your desired food cost (for example 0.30 for 30%). Multiply by 1.09 for the price including VAT. This is your break-even point.
✨ Pro tip
Always calculate seasonal dishes using peak-season pricing, not the attractive early-season rates. If asparagus starts at €12/kg, price your menu assuming it'll hit €22/kg within 4 weeks.
Calculate this yourself?
In the KitchenNmbrs app you can do this in just a few clicks. 7 days free, no credit card.
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Frequently asked questions
How much can I raise my price without losing customers?
Is it better to wait until prices drop again?
Do I need to adjust all seasonal dishes at once?
How often should I check my prices during peak season?
Can I adjust portion size instead of raising the price?
What food cost percentage should I target for seasonal dishes?
Should I negotiate with suppliers during price spikes?
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Sources consulted
- EU Verordening 852/2004 — Levensmiddelenhygiëne (2004) — Official source
- EU Verordening 853/2004 — Hygiënevoorschriften voor levensmiddelen van dierlijke oorsprong (2004) — Official source
- EU Verordening 1169/2011 — Voedselinformatie aan consumenten (2011) — Official source
- NVWA — Hygiënecode voor de horeca (2024) — Official source
- NVWA — Allergenen in voedsel (2024) — Official source
- Codex Alimentarius — International Food Standards (2024) — Official source
- FSA — Safer food, better business (HACCP) (2024) — Official source
- BVL — Lebensmittelhygiene (HACCP) (2024) — Official source
Food Standards Agency (FSA) — https://www.food.gov.uk
The HACCP standards shown in this application are for informational purposes only. KitchenNmbrs does not guarantee that displayed values are current or complete. Always consult the FSA or your local authority for the latest regulations.
Written by
Jeffrey Smit
Founder & CEO of KitchenNmbrs
Jeffrey Smit built KitchenNmbrs from 8 years of hands-on experience as kitchen manager at 1NUL8 Group in Rotterdam. His mission: give every restaurant owner control over food cost.
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