Picture this: you're planning your winter menu and every dish seems to push your food costs higher than summer. Braised meats and hearty stews naturally cost more than fresh salads, but you're wondering if those numbers are acceptable. The answer depends on understanding seasonal cost fluctuations and setting realistic thresholds.
Why winter menus cost more to produce
Winter changes everything about ingredient availability. Fresh vegetables become scarce and pricey, while your customers crave rich, protein-heavy dishes. This shift drives up ingredient costs — and that's completely normal.
? Example of seasonal difference:
Summer dish (salad with goat cheese):
- Mixed greens: €1.20
- Goat cheese: €2.40
- Walnuts: €0.80
- Dressing: €0.30
Total food cost: €4.70
Winter dish (venison stew):
- Venison: €6.50
- Carrots/onions: €1.20
- Red wine: €1.80
- Cream/herbs: €1.10
Total food cost: €10.60
The 5% rule for seasonal menus
Here's a guideline that works: your winter menu can run 3-5 percentage points higher in food cost than summer. This accounts for pricier ingredients and customer expectations for heartier meals.
- Summer menu: 28-32% food cost
- Winter menu: 31-37% food cost
- Danger zone: Above 38% hurts profitability
⚠️ Note:
Always calculate using your selling price minus VAT. A €32 menu item equals €29.36 excluding VAT (32 ÷ 1.09).
Your options for high-cost winter dishes
If your winter dishes push past 37% food cost, you've got three moves — and this is the kind of thing you only learn after closing your first month at a loss:
- Increase menu prices: Customers expect to pay more in winter
- Tweak your recipes: Use less expensive cuts, add more vegetables
- Accept thinner margins: Make up the difference with drink sales
? Practical example:
Your venison stew costs €10.60 in ingredients. You sell it for €32 (€29.36 excluding VAT).
Food cost: (€10.60 ÷ €29.36) × 100 = 36.1%
This works for a winter dish. At 40%+, you'd need to bump the price to €35-36.
Monitoring costs throughout the season
Review your food cost per dish every 6 weeks. Ingredient prices shift rapidly due to weather, harvest conditions, and supply chain issues.
- Update purchase prices in your tracking system
- Recalculate food cost per dish
- Compare against last season's numbers
- Adjust menu pricing if costs exceed 37%
Using tools like a food cost calculator helps you spot seasonal differences quickly without doing math by hand.
Related articles
How do you calculate whether your winter prices can increase?
Calculate the food cost of your winter dishes
Add up all ingredient costs per dish. Don't forget herbs, butter, and garnish. This gives you the exact cost per portion.
Calculate your food cost percentage
Divide your food cost by your selling price excluding VAT and multiply by 100. Formula: (food cost ÷ selling price excl. VAT) × 100.
Compare with your summer menu
Is your winter food cost 3-5 percentage points higher? That's normal. Above 37% total becomes risky and requires price adjustment.
✨ Pro tip
Track your 8 highest-volume winter dishes every 6 weeks for food cost creep. If those core items stay under 37%, you can confidently price the rest of your seasonal menu.
Calculate this yourself?
In the KitchenNmbrs app you can do this in just a few clicks. 7 days free, no credit card.
Calculate it yourself?
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Frequently asked questions
Can my winter dishes always be more expensive?
How often should I adjust my seasonal prices?
What if customers complain about higher winter prices?
Can I keep summer prices through winter?
Which ingredients spike most in winter?
Should I calculate food costs differently for winter specials?
Sources consulted
- EU Verordening 852/2004 — Levensmiddelenhygiëne (2004) — Official source
- EU Verordening 853/2004 — Hygiënevoorschriften voor levensmiddelen van dierlijke oorsprong (2004) — Official source
- EU Verordening 1169/2011 — Voedselinformatie aan consumenten (2011) — Official source
- NVWA — Hygiënecode voor de horeca (2024) — Official source
- NVWA — Allergenen in voedsel (2024) — Official source
- Codex Alimentarius — International Food Standards (2024) — Official source
- FSA — Safer food, better business (HACCP) (2024) — Official source
- BVL — Lebensmittelhygiene (HACCP) (2024) — Official source
Food Standards Agency (FSA) — https://www.food.gov.uk
The HACCP standards shown in this application are for informational purposes only. KitchenNmbrs does not guarantee that displayed values are current or complete. Always consult the FSA or your local authority for the latest regulations.
Written by
Jeffrey Smit
Founder & CEO of KitchenNmbrs
Jeffrey Smit built KitchenNmbrs from 8 years of hands-on experience as kitchen manager at 1NUL8 Group in Rotterdam. His mission: give every restaurant owner control over food cost.
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