Create scenarios for best case

Quick answer

Picture this: you've just launched your seasonal pumpkin soup special, expecting decent sales, but three weeks in you've only sold 30% of what you projected. Now you're stuck with expensive ingredients and a dish that's eating into your margins.

Picture this: you've just launched your seasonal pumpkin soup special, expecting decent sales, but three weeks in you've only sold 30% of what you projected. Now you're stuck with expensive ingredients and a dish that's eating into your margins. Creating best case, realistic, and worst case scenarios beforehand prevents these costly surprises.

Why scenarios matter for seasonal dishes

Seasonal dishes have a limited sales window. You can't adjust mid-season like you can with fixed menu items. That's why you need to know upfront: how many sales do you need at minimum to break even?

⚠️ Note:

Seasonal dishes often carry higher ingredient costs because ingredients are scarce. Always calculate with higher food cost percentages than your regular menu items.

The three scenarios explained

Best Case: Everything aligns perfectly. Great weather, high guest count, everyone orders your seasonal special.

Realistic: Normal sales performance, based on your historical data and external factors.

Worst Case: Poor sales due to bad weather, increased competition, or shifting customer preferences.

Step 1: Gather your foundation data

For each scenario you need these numbers:

Ingredient costs per portion
Selling price (excl. 9% VAT)
Number of days you'll sell the dish
Average covers per day during that season
Percentage of guests ordering seasonal dishes

? Example foundation data:

Pumpkin soup for October/November:

Ingredient costs: €3.20 per portion
Selling price: €12.50 incl. VAT = €11.47 excl. VAT
Sales period: 60 days
Average covers: 80 per day
Food cost: 27.9%

Step 2: Set your penetration percentages

The penetration percentage shows what portion of your guests order the seasonal dish. This fluctuates significantly per scenario:

Best Case: 25-35% (high enthusiasm and trial rate)
Realistic: 15-20% (standard interest level)
Worst Case: 8-12% (only dedicated fans order it)

? Example sales calculation:

Pumpkin soup scenarios at 80 covers/day, 60 days:

Best Case (25%): 80 × 60 × 0.25 = 1,200 portions
Realistic (18%): 80 × 60 × 0.18 = 864 portions
Worst Case (10%): 80 × 60 × 0.10 = 480 portions

Step 3: Calculate revenue and profit per scenario

Now you can determine earnings for each scenario:

Revenue formula:
Number of portions × Selling price excl. VAT

Profit formula:
(Selling price - Ingredient costs) × Number of portions

? Example profit calculation:

Pumpkin soup profit per scenario:

Best Case: (€11.47 - €3.20) × 1,200 = €9,924
Realistic: (€11.47 - €3.20) × 864 = €7,145
Worst Case: (€11.47 - €3.20) × 480 = €3,970

Difference between best and worst case: €5,954!

Step 4: Find your break-even point

How many portions must you sell minimum to cover your fixed costs (staff time, recipe development, marketing)?

Break-even formula:
Fixed costs ÷ (Selling price - Ingredient costs)

? Example break-even:

Fixed costs pumpkin soup development: €1,000

Break-even: €1,000 ÷ €8.27 = 121 portions
This represents 2.5% of your worst case scenario
Well below your 480 portions worst case

Conclusion: even worst case remains profitable

Step 5: Account for external factors

Based on real restaurant P&L data, seasonal dishes get influenced by factors beyond your control:

Weather: Soup performs poorly at 25°C in October
Competition: Does every restaurant offer the same seasonal dish?
Trends: Is the ingredient still trendy this year?
Ingredient prices: Can spike suddenly due to supply shortages

⚠️ Note:

Monitor your ingredient prices weekly during the season. Asparagus can jump 30% more expensive within a week due to poor harvests.

Decision matrix: Go or no-go?

Use these guidelines to decide:

GO: Worst case scenario still shows profit
MAYBE: Realistic scenario is profitable, worst case breaks even
NO-GO: Only best case scenario turns a profit

A seasonal dish shouldn't lose money even in the worst scenario. You've got enough business risks already.

Tools for scenario planning

A food cost calculator like KitchenNmbrs speeds up scenario calculations:

Automatically calculate cost price per portion
Test different selling prices
See ingredient price increase impact immediately
Track sales figures for improved future scenarios

How do you create scenarios for seasonal dishes? (step by step)

Calculate your cost price per portion exactly

Add up all ingredients including garnish, spices, and oil. Also account for cutting waste - seasonal ingredients often have more waste.

Determine realistic penetration percentages

Best case 25-35%, realistic 15-20%, worst case 8-12% of your guests. Look at historical data from similar seasonal dishes.

Calculate all three scenarios

Number of portions × (selling price - cost price) = profit per scenario. The difference between best and worst case shows your risk.

Determine your break-even point

Fixed costs ÷ profit margin per portion = minimum number of portions. This must be well below your worst case scenario.

Monitor and adjust during the season

Track weekly how much you sell. Below your realistic scenario? Then you can still promote or adjust the price.

✨ Pro tip

Order ingredients based on your worst case scenario for the first 10 days of sales. If you're hitting realistic or best case numbers, you can quickly reorder without getting stuck with spoiled seasonal ingredients.

Calculate this yourself?

In the KitchenNmbrs app you can do this in just a few clicks. 7 days free, no credit card.

Try KitchenNmbrs free →

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Frequently asked questions

What if my worst case scenario shows a loss?

Then the seasonal dish carries too much risk. Consider raising the selling price, finding cheaper ingredients, or choosing a different dish entirely. Seasonal dishes must at least break even in worst case scenarios.

Should I account for labor costs in my scenarios?

Only if the seasonal dish requires extra staff for complex preparation. Normal labor costs are already built into your general cost structure. Don't double-count existing overhead expenses.

How do I prevent over-ordering for a seasonal dish?

Start with worst case scenario quantities for your initial order. If sales exceed expectations, you can reorder quickly. Seasonal ingredients spoil fast, so it's better to run short temporarily than waste expensive inventory.

ℹ️ This article was prepared based on official sources and professional expertise. While we strive for current and accurate information, the content may differ from the most recent regulations. Always consult the official authorities for binding standards.

Sources consulted

EU Verordening 852/2004 — Levensmiddelenhygiëne (2004) — Official source
EU Verordening 853/2004 — Hygiënevoorschriften voor levensmiddelen van dierlijke oorsprong (2004) — Official source
EU Verordening 1169/2011 — Voedselinformatie aan consumenten (2011) — Official source
NVWA — Hygiënecode voor de horeca (2024) — Official source
NVWA — Allergenen in voedsel (2024) — Official source
Codex Alimentarius — International Food Standards (2024) — Official source
FSA — Safer food, better business (HACCP) (2024) — Official source
BVL — Lebensmittelhygiene (HACCP) (2024) — Official source

Food Standards Agency (FSA) — https://www.food.gov.uk

The HACCP standards shown in this application are for informational purposes only. KitchenNmbrs does not guarantee that displayed values are current or complete. Always consult the FSA or your local authority for the latest regulations.

Written by

Jeffrey Smit

Founder & CEO of KitchenNmbrs

Jeffrey Smit built KitchenNmbrs from 8 years of hands-on experience as kitchen manager at 1NUL8 Group in Rotterdam. His mission: give every restaurant owner control over food cost.

8 years kitchen manager at 1NUL8 Group Rotterdam

Expertise: food cost management HACCP kitchen management restaurant operations food safety compliance

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