Seasonal dishes can make or break your profit. Asparagus in May, pumpkin in October, Christmas menus in December - but what if sales disappoint? In this article you'll learn how to create best case, realistic, and worst case scenarios for seasonal dishes, so you're never caught off guard by disappointing sales.
Why scenarios are crucial for seasonal dishes
Seasonal dishes have a limited sales window. You can't adjust mid-season like you can with fixed menu items. That's why you need to know in advance: how much sales do you need at minimum to break even?
⚠️ Note:
Seasonal dishes often have higher ingredient costs because ingredients are scarce. Always calculate with higher food cost percentages than you're used to.
The three scenarios explained
Best Case: Everything goes perfectly. Nice weather, lots of guests, everyone wants your seasonal special.
Realistic: Normal sales, based on your historical data and external factors.
Worst Case: Disappointing sales due to bad weather, competition, or changing tastes.
Step 1: Gather your basic data
For each scenario you need these figures:
- Ingredient costs per portion
- Selling price (excl. 9% VAT)
- Number of days you sell the dish
- Average covers per day in that season
- Percentage of guests ordering seasonal dishes
💡 Example basic data:
Pumpkin soup in October/November:
- Ingredient costs: €3.20 per portion
- Selling price: €12.50 incl. VAT = €11.47 excl. VAT
- Sales days: 60 days
- Average covers: 80 per day
- Food cost: 27.9%
Step 2: Determine your penetration percentages
The penetration percentage is what percentage of your guests order the seasonal dish. This varies greatly per scenario:
- Best Case: 25-35% (everyone wants to try it)
- Realistic: 15-20% (normal interest)
- Worst Case: 8-12% (only true enthusiasts)
💡 Example sales calculation:
Pumpkin soup scenarios at 80 covers/day, 60 days:
- Best Case (25%): 80 × 60 × 0.25 = 1,200 portions
- Realistic (18%): 80 × 60 × 0.18 = 864 portions
- Worst Case (10%): 80 × 60 × 0.10 = 480 portions
Step 3: Calculate revenue and profit per scenario
Now you can calculate what you earn per scenario:
Revenue formula:
Number of portions × Selling price excl. VAT
Profit formula:
(Selling price - Ingredient costs) × Number of portions
💡 Example profit calculation:
Pumpkin soup profit per scenario:
- Best Case: (€11.47 - €3.20) × 1,200 = €9,924
- Realistic: (€11.47 - €3.20) × 864 = €7,145
- Worst Case: (€11.47 - €3.20) × 480 = €3,970
Difference between best and worst case: €5,954!
Step 4: Determine your break-even point
How many portions must you sell at minimum to cover your fixed costs (staff, recipe development, marketing)?
Break-even formula:
Fixed costs ÷ (Selling price - Ingredient costs)
💡 Example break-even:
Fixed costs pumpkin soup development: €1,000
- Break-even: €1,000 ÷ €8.27 = 121 portions
- This is 2.5% of your worst case scenario
- Well below your 480 portions worst case
Conclusion: even worst case is profitable
Step 5: Make external factors transparent
Seasonal dishes are influenced by factors outside your control:
- Weather: Soup sells poorly at 25°C in October
- Competition: Does everyone have the same seasonal dish?
- Trends: Is the ingredient still popular this year?
- Ingredient prices: Can suddenly rise due to scarcity
⚠️ Note:
Check your ingredient prices weekly during the season. Asparagus can become 30% more expensive within a week due to poor harvest.
Decision matrix: Do it or not?
Use these rules of thumb to decide:
- GO: Worst case scenario is still profitable
- MAYBE: Realistic scenario is profitable, worst case breaks even
- NO-GO: Only best case scenario is profitable
A seasonal dish must not lose money even in the worst scenario. You have enough risks in your business already.
How KitchenNmbrs helps with scenario planning
With KitchenNmbrs you can quickly calculate different scenarios:
- Automatically calculate cost price per portion
- Test different selling prices
- See the impact of ingredient price increases immediately
- Track sales figures for better future scenarios
How do you create scenarios for seasonal dishes? (step by step)
Calculate your cost price per portion exactly
Add up all ingredients including garnish, spices, and oil. Also account for cutting waste - seasonal ingredients often have more waste.
Determine realistic penetration percentages
Best case 25-35%, realistic 15-20%, worst case 8-12% of your guests. Look at historical data from similar seasonal dishes.
Calculate all three scenarios
Number of portions × (selling price - cost price) = profit per scenario. The difference between best and worst case shows your risk.
Determine your break-even point
Fixed costs ÷ profit margin per portion = minimum number of portions. This must be well below your worst case scenario.
Monitor and adjust during the season
Track weekly how much you sell. Below your realistic scenario? Then you can still promote or adjust the price.
✨ Pro tip
Always start with your worst case scenario for ordering. Selling better? Then you can reorder. The other way around you're stuck with perishable seasonal ingredients you throw away.
Calculate this yourself?
In the KitchenNmbrs app you can do this in just a few clicks. 7 days free, no credit card.
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Frequently asked questions
What if my worst case scenario shows a loss?
Then the seasonal dish is too risky. Consider a higher selling price, cheaper ingredients, or a different dish. Seasonal dishes must always at least break even.
How often should I update my scenarios?
Create them before the season starts. During the season check weekly if you're on track. For next year adjust based on actual sales figures.
Should I account for labor costs in my scenarios?
Only if the seasonal dish requires extra staff (complex preparation). Normal labor costs are already in your general cost structure and don't need to be included.
Can I use the same penetration percentages for all seasonal dishes?
No, this varies by dish type. Soups have different percentages than game dishes or summer drinks. Build historical data per seasonal dish category.
What do I do if ingredient prices rise during the season?
Check your supplier prices weekly. If prices rise >15% you can consider adjusting your selling price or temporarily stopping the dish. Always plan a buffer.
How do I prevent over-ordering for a seasonal dish?
In the first week only order for your worst case scenario. Selling better? Then you can reorder. Seasonal ingredients spoil quickly, so better too little than too much.
📚 Sources consulted
- EU Verordening 852/2004 — Levensmiddelenhygiëne (2004) — Official source
- EU Verordening 853/2004 — Hygiënevoorschriften voor levensmiddelen van dierlijke oorsprong (2004) — Official source
- EU Verordening 1169/2011 — Voedselinformatie aan consumenten (2011) — Official source
- NVWA — Hygiënecode voor de horeca (2024) — Official source
- NVWA — Allergenen in voedsel (2024) — Official source
- Codex Alimentarius — International Food Standards (2024) — Official source
- FSA — Safer food, better business (HACCP) (2024) — Official source
- BVL — Lebensmittelhygiene (HACCP) (2024) — Official source
- Warenwetbesluit Bereiding en behandeling van levensmiddelen (2024) — Official source
- WHO — Foodborne diseases estimates (2024) — Official source
Food Standards Agency (FSA) — https://www.food.gov.uk
The HACCP standards shown in this application are for informational purposes only. KitchenNmbrs does not guarantee that displayed values are current or complete. Always consult the FSA or your local authority for the latest regulations.
Written by
Jeffrey Smit
Founder & CEO of KitchenNmbrs
Jeffrey Smit built KitchenNmbrs from 8 years of hands-on experience as kitchen manager at 1NUL8 Group in Rotterdam. His mission: give every restaurant owner control over food cost.
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