Many restaurants launch new dishes with high hopes, only to watch them fail quietly. Smart operators calculate minimum popularity thresholds before making menu changes. Here's the exact formula to determine if your new dish deserves its spot.
Why popularity drives profitability
A dish might boast a perfect 28% food cost, but if customers ignore it, you're bleeding money. Every menu item creates ongoing expenses:
- Ingredients in stock (which can spoil)
- Time for your chef to prepare it
- Space on the menu (which you could use for popular dishes)
- Complexity in the kitchen
The key is calculating exactly how much you need to sell to recover these costs.
The formula for minimum popularity
Calculate minimum popularity using this equation:
? Formula:
Minimum sales per week = Fixed costs per dish / Margin per portion
Fixed costs include:
- Stock costs (ingredients that can spoil)
- Chef's time for preparation and mise-en-place
- Opportunity costs (what you'd earn with a more popular dish)
Step 1: Calculate your fixed costs per dish
Add up what the dish costs you, regardless of sales volume:
? Example: Grilled sea bream
Fixed costs per week:
- 2 whole fish in stock: €36
- Garnish (lemon, herbs): €8
- Extra chef time (filleting): 2 hours × €18 = €36
- Menu space: €20
Total fixed costs: €100 per week
Step 2: Calculate your margin per portion
This equals your selling price minus all variable costs:
? Example: Margin calculation
Sea bream on the menu: €28.50 incl. VAT
- Selling price excl. VAT: €26.15
- Ingredient costs: €8.50
- Variable costs (gas, service): €3.20
Margin per portion: €26.15 - €8.50 - €3.20 = €14.45
Step 3: Calculate minimum sales
Divide your fixed costs by your margin per portion:
? Minimum sales:
€100 / €14.45 = 7 portions per week
With 6 opening days, this means: at least 1-2 portions per day to break even.
⚠️ Note:
This is your break-even point. For profit, you want to sell at least 20-30% more. So aim for 9-10 portions per week.
Different scenarios for popularity
After managing kitchen operations for nearly a decade, I've seen how different establishments require different standards:
- Fine dining: 3-5% of total covers per dish
- Bistro/brasserie: 5-8% of total covers per dish
- Casual dining: 8-12% of total covers per dish
A dish that falls below these percentages should be replaced with something more appealing.
When to remove a dish from the menu
Remove a dish from the menu if:
- It stays below minimum sales for 4 weeks
- Ingredients spoil regularly
- Your chef spends too much time on it
- Guests often return it or complain about it
? Real-world example:
Restaurant De Smederij removed their lamb shoulder from the menu after 6 weeks. Minimum sales were 8 portions per week, but they averaged only 3. The spoiled lamb cost them an extra €180 per month.
Tools to track popularity
Manual counting wastes time and creates errors. Most restaurants use their POS system to analyze sales figures per dish. Tools like KitchenNmbrs can help you quickly identify which dishes fall below minimum popularity, so you can adjust before losses mount.
Related articles
How do you calculate minimum popularity? (step by step)
Add up all fixed costs
Calculate what the dish costs you per week, even without sales. Think about stock, extra prep time, and menu space. Write down this amount.
Calculate margin per portion
Subtract all variable costs from your selling price (excl. VAT): ingredients, preparation, service. This is your profit per sold portion.
Divide fixed costs by margin
Fixed costs per week divided by margin per portion gives you minimum sales. Add 20-30% to this for profitability.
✨ Pro tip
Track your new dish sales against the 7-portion weekly minimum for the first 30 days. If it hasn't hit the threshold by day 21, start planning a replacement.
Calculate this yourself?
In the KitchenNmbrs app you can do this in just a few clicks. 7 days free, no credit card.
Was this article helpful?
Frequently asked questions
What if a dish is seasonal?
Should I include marketing costs?
How often should I check popularity?
What if a dish is just below minimum sales?
kennisbank.ingredients_in_article
Sources consulted
- EU Verordening 852/2004 — Levensmiddelenhygiëne (2004) — Official source
- EU Verordening 853/2004 — Hygiënevoorschriften voor levensmiddelen van dierlijke oorsprong (2004) — Official source
- EU Verordening 1169/2011 — Voedselinformatie aan consumenten (2011) — Official source
- NVWA — Hygiënecode voor de horeca (2024) — Official source
- NVWA — Allergenen in voedsel (2024) — Official source
- Codex Alimentarius — International Food Standards (2024) — Official source
- FSA — Safer food, better business (HACCP) (2024) — Official source
- BVL — Lebensmittelhygiene (HACCP) (2024) — Official source
Food Standards Agency (FSA) — https://www.food.gov.uk
The HACCP standards shown in this application are for informational purposes only. KitchenNmbrs does not guarantee that displayed values are current or complete. Always consult the FSA or your local authority for the latest regulations.
Written by
Jeffrey Smit
Founder & CEO of KitchenNmbrs
Jeffrey Smit built KitchenNmbrs from 8 years of hands-on experience as kitchen manager at 1NUL8 Group in Rotterdam. His mission: give every restaurant owner control over food cost.
kennisbank.more_in_category
Related questions
Explore more topics
Develop recipes with instant cost calculation
Every new recipe has a cost price. KitchenNmbrs calculates it while you build the recipe — so you know if it's profitable before it hits the menu. Try it free.
Start free trial →