Adding a new dish to your menu is an investment. You spend time on recipe development, staff training, and marketing. But how do you know if a dish is worth keeping? In this article, you'll learn how to calculate the minimum popularity a dish needs to remain profitable.
Why popularity matters for profitability
A dish can have a perfect food cost of 28%, but if nobody orders it, you lose money. Every dish on your menu costs you:
- Ingredients in stock (which can spoil)
- Time for your chef to prepare it
- Space on the menu (which you could use for popular dishes)
- Complexity in the kitchen
The trick is to calculate how much you need to sell minimum to recover these costs.
The formula for minimum popularity
Calculate minimum popularity like this:
📊 Formula:
Minimum sales per week = Fixed costs per dish / Margin per portion
Where fixed costs consist of:
- Stock costs (ingredients that can spoil)
- Chef's time for preparation and mise-en-place
- Opportunity costs (what you'd earn with a more popular dish)
Step 1: Calculate your fixed costs per dish
Add up what the dish costs you, even if you don't sell a single one:
💡 Example: Grilled sea bream
Fixed costs per week:
- 2 whole fish in stock: €36
- Garnish (lemon, herbs): €8
- Extra chef time (filleting): 2 hours × €18 = €36
- Menu space: €20
Total fixed costs: €100 per week
Step 2: Calculate your margin per portion
This is your selling price minus all variable costs:
💡 Example: Margin calculation
Sea bream on the menu: €28.50 incl. VAT
- Selling price excl. VAT: €26.15
- Ingredient costs: €8.50
- Variable costs (gas, service): €3.20
Margin per portion: €26.15 - €8.50 - €3.20 = €14.45
Step 3: Calculate minimum sales
Divide your fixed costs by your margin per portion:
🎯 Minimum sales:
€100 / €14.45 = 7 portions per week
With 6 opening days, this means: at least 1-2 portions per day to break even.
⚠️ Note:
This is your break-even point. For profit, you want to sell at least 20-30% more. In this example, 9-10 portions per week.
Different scenarios for popularity
Different standards apply depending on your type of establishment:
- Fine dining: 3-5% of total covers per dish
- Bistro/brasserie: 5-8% of total covers per dish
- Casual dining: 8-12% of total covers per dish
A dish that falls below these percentages is better replaced with something more popular.
When to remove a dish from the menu
Remove a dish from the menu if:
- It stays below minimum sales for 4 weeks
- Ingredients spoil regularly
- Your chef spends too much time on it
- Guests often return it or complain about it
💡 Real-world example:
Restaurant De Smederij removed their lamb shoulder from the menu after 6 weeks. Minimum sales were 8 portions per week, but they sold an average of 3. The spoiled lamb cost them an extra €180 per month.
Tools to track popularity
Manual counting is time-consuming and error-prone. Many restaurants use their POS system to analyze sales figures per dish. Apps like KitchenNmbrs can help you quickly see which dishes fall below minimum popularity, so you can adjust in time.
How do you calculate minimum popularity? (step by step)
Add up all fixed costs
Calculate what the dish costs you per week, even without sales. Think about stock, extra prep time, and menu space. Write down this amount.
Calculate margin per portion
Subtract all variable costs from your selling price (excl. VAT): ingredients, preparation, service. This is your profit per sold portion.
Divide fixed costs by margin
Fixed costs per week divided by margin per portion gives you minimum sales. Add 20-30% to this for profitability.
✨ Pro tip
Check your POS system every Friday to see which dishes fall below minimum sales. That way you can still adjust over the weekend with recommendations from your service staff.
Calculate this yourself?
In the KitchenNmbrs app you can do this in just a few clicks. 7 days free, no credit card.
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Frequently asked questions
What if a dish is seasonal?
Calculate minimum sales per season instead of per week. Divide your total seasonal costs by the number of weeks you sell the dish.
Should I include marketing costs?
Yes, if you advertise specifically for this dish or have photos taken. Add these costs to your fixed costs and divide over the expected sales period.
How often should I check popularity?
Check new dishes weekly for the first month, then monthly. Established dishes can be evaluated quarterly for popularity and profitability.
What if a dish is just below minimum sales?
Try raising the price or lowering the cost price first. If that doesn't work within 2-3 weeks, replace the dish with a proven popular option.
Do different standards apply to vegetarian dishes?
Vegetarian dishes often have lower ingredient costs, so a lower minimum sales threshold. But they still need enough popularity to cover fixed costs.
⚠️ EU Regulation 1169/2011 — Allergen Information — https://eur-lex.europa.eu/eli/reg/2011/1169/oj
The allergen information on this page is based on EU Regulation 1169/2011. Recipes and ingredients may vary by supplier. Always verify current allergen information with your supplier and communicate this correctly to your guests. KitchenNmbrs is not liable for allergic reactions.
In the UK, the FSA enforces allergen regulations under the Food Information Regulations 2014.
📚 Sources consulted
- EU Verordening 852/2004 — Levensmiddelenhygiëne (2004) — Official source
- EU Verordening 853/2004 — Hygiënevoorschriften voor levensmiddelen van dierlijke oorsprong (2004) — Official source
- EU Verordening 1169/2011 — Voedselinformatie aan consumenten (2011) — Official source
- NVWA — Hygiënecode voor de horeca (2024) — Official source
- NVWA — Allergenen in voedsel (2024) — Official source
- Codex Alimentarius — International Food Standards (2024) — Official source
- FSA — Safer food, better business (HACCP) (2024) — Official source
- BVL — Lebensmittelhygiene (HACCP) (2024) — Official source
- Warenwetbesluit Bereiding en behandeling van levensmiddelen (2024) — Official source
- WHO — Foodborne diseases estimates (2024) — Official source
Food Standards Agency (FSA) — https://www.food.gov.uk
The HACCP standards shown in this application are for informational purposes only. KitchenNmbrs does not guarantee that displayed values are current or complete. Always consult the FSA or your local authority for the latest regulations.
Written by
Jeffrey Smit
Founder & CEO of KitchenNmbrs
Jeffrey Smit built KitchenNmbrs from 8 years of hands-on experience as kitchen manager at 1NUL8 Group in Rotterdam. His mission: give every restaurant owner control over food cost.
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