Think of your menu like a sports team roster. Some players are superstars (high profit, loved by fans), others are benchwarmers eating up salary with no performance. You wouldn't keep underperforming players just because they're on the roster, right?
The 4-quadrant method for menu analysis
This approach combines two vital metrics: profitability (your earnings per dish) and popularity (ordering frequency). Your dishes fall into 4 distinct categories.
💡 Example: Restaurant with 20 dishes
After analysis, there are 4 categories:
- Stars (5 dishes): popular and profitable
- Plowhorses (6 dishes): popular but low profit
- Puzzles (4 dishes): profitable but not popular
- Dogs (5 dishes): not popular and no profit
Those 5 Dogs? Off the menu immediately. You'll save on purchasing and reduce kitchen complexity.
Calculate profitability per dish
You need two figures for each dish: ingredient costs and absolute profit (forget percentages for now).
Formula for absolute profit:
Profit per portion = Selling price excl. VAT - Ingredient costs
💡 Example calculation:
Pasta Carbonara:
- Menu price: €18.50 incl. VAT
- Excl. VAT: €18.50 ÷ 1.09 = €16.97
- Ingredient costs: €5.10
- Absolute profit: €16.97 - €5.10 = €11.87
Why absolute profit instead of food cost percentage? A dish with 25% food cost at €30 (€7.50 profit) beats 20% food cost at €15 (€3.00 profit) every time.
Measure the popularity of each dish
Track popularity through sales data. Pull numbers from the past 4-6 weeks for reliable results.
- Count orders for each dish
- Divide by total dishes sold
- Multiply by 100 for percentage
💡 Example popularity:
Last month (1,000 dishes total):
- Steak: 120× ordered = 12%
- Pasta Carbonara: 85× ordered = 8.5%
- Vegetarian curry: 25× ordered = 2.5%
Steak clearly dominates the curry in customer preference.
Divide your dishes into 4 categories
Start by finding your benchmarks. Calculate the average profit per portion and average popularity percentage across all dishes.
⚠️ Note:
Use your own menu averages, not industry standards. Every restaurant operates differently.
The 4 categories:
- Stars: Above average profit + above average popularity
- Plowhorses: Below average profit + above average popularity
- Puzzles: Above average profit + below average popularity
- Dogs: Below average profit + below average popularity
Which dishes do you remove from the menu?
Dogs are your first elimination targets. They're unpopular and generate minimal revenue. Removing them delivers multiple benefits:
- Simplified purchasing process
- Reduced inventory requirements
- Kitchen staff can focus on profitable items
- Cleaner, more focused menu
💡 Real-world example:
Restaurant De Kern had 24 dishes. After analysis:
- 7 Dogs removed
- Menu reduced from 24 to 17 dishes
- Less purchasing, less waste
- Chef can deliver better quality
Result: 12% lower food cost due to reduced complexity.
I've seen this mistake cost the average restaurant EUR 200-400 per month - keeping unprofitable dishes simply because "we've always had them." Data beats sentiment every time.
Plowhorses don't require immediate removal, but they need intervention. They're crowd-pleasers with poor margins. Your options:
- Increase prices (cautiously, since they're popular)
- Substitute cheaper ingredients
- Trim portion sizes slightly
How often should you do this analysis?
Run this evaluation every 3-4 months. Popularity and profitability shift constantly due to:
- Seasonal fluctuations
- Supplier price adjustments
- Emerging food trends
- Customer demographic changes
⚠️ Note:
Don't eliminate more than 20-30% of your menu simultaneously. Customers need adjustment time for changes.
Tools like KitchenNmbrs automatically track dish profitability. Pull sales data from your POS system or track manually if needed.
How do you decide which dishes to remove? (step by step)
Gather data on all dishes
Note for each dish: ingredient costs, selling price, and number of times sold (last 4-6 weeks). Calculate absolute profit per portion: selling price excl. VAT minus ingredient costs.
Calculate your menu averages
Add up all absolute profits and divide by number of dishes for average profit. Add up all sales numbers for total, calculate percentage per dish for popularity.
Divide into 4 categories
Place each dish in a quadrant: Stars (popular + profitable), Plowhorses (popular + low profit), Puzzles (profitable + not popular), Dogs (not popular + low profit).
Remove the Dogs from your menu
Dishes in the Dogs category generate little revenue and are rarely ordered. By removing them you reduce complexity and your chef can focus on profitable dishes.
✨ Pro tip
Analyze your menu's bottom 6 performers over the past 8 weeks - if they're averaging under 3% popularity each, they're prime removal candidates. Those dishes are likely costing you more in complexity than they're generating in revenue.
Calculate this yourself?
In the KitchenNmbrs app you can do this in just a few clicks. 7 days free, no credit card.
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Frequently asked questions
What if a Dog dish is my signature dish?
First examine ingredient costs closely. You can often boost profit through cheaper alternatives or slight portion adjustments. If it's truly your signature, keep it but accept it's not a money-maker.
How many dishes can I remove at once?
Remove maximum 20-30% of your menu simultaneously. Customers need adjustment time. Start with obvious losers and gauge guest reactions before eliminating more dishes.
What do I do with Plowhorses - popular but low-profit dishes?
Focus on improving profitability first: modest price increases, cheaper ingredients, or smaller portions. Only remove them if profitability improvements prove impossible.
What if I don't have a POS system for sales figures?
Manually track orders for 2-3 weeks using a kitchen checklist. It requires effort but provides valuable insights into what sells versus what sits. The data is worth the temporary inconvenience.
📚 Sources consulted
- EU Verordening 852/2004 — Levensmiddelenhygiëne (2004) — Official source
- EU Verordening 853/2004 — Hygiënevoorschriften voor levensmiddelen van dierlijke oorsprong (2004) — Official source
- EU Verordening 1169/2011 — Voedselinformatie aan consumenten (2011) — Official source
- NVWA — Hygiënecode voor de horeca (2024) — Official source
- NVWA — Allergenen in voedsel (2024) — Official source
- Codex Alimentarius — International Food Standards (2024) — Official source
- FSA — Safer food, better business (HACCP) (2024) — Official source
- BVL — Lebensmittelhygiene (HACCP) (2024) — Official source
- Warenwetbesluit Bereiding en behandeling van levensmiddelen (2024) — Official source
- WHO — Foodborne diseases estimates (2024) — Official source
Food Standards Agency (FSA) — https://www.food.gov.uk
The HACCP standards shown in this application are for informational purposes only. KitchenNmbrs does not guarantee that displayed values are current or complete. Always consult the FSA or your local authority for the latest regulations.
Written by
Jeffrey Smit
Founder & CEO of KitchenNmbrs
Jeffrey Smit built KitchenNmbrs from 8 years of hands-on experience as kitchen manager at 1NUL8 Group in Rotterdam. His mission: give every restaurant owner control over food cost.
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