Here's what I wish someone had told me earlier: that popular dish killing your margins doesn't have to stay that way. A Plow Horse attracts crowds but drains profits, and you're stuck between keeping guests happy and staying profitable. The real question isn't whether to keep it - it's whether tweaking beats tossing.
What exactly is a Plow Horse?
Menu engineering splits dishes into four buckets:
- Stars: Popular and profitable
- Plow Horses: Popular but not profitable
- Puzzles: Not popular but profitable
- Dogs: Not popular and not profitable
Your Plow Horse is that crowd-pleaser where you barely break even. But you can't just axe it - guests would revolt.
💡 Example:
Your Caesar Salad flies out 40 times weekly (clearly popular), but carries a brutal 38% food cost. Meanwhile, your other dishes hover around 28%.
Classic Plow Horse territory: high volume, thin margins.
Calculate the impact of adjusting vs. removing
You need three key numbers for this decision:
- Current contribution: What's it earning now?
- Potential contribution: What could it earn after tweaks?
- Alternative contribution: What happens if guests order something else?
Contribution per dish = (Selling price excl. VAT - Ingredient costs) × Units sold
💡 Example calculation:
Caesar Salad: €16.50 incl. VAT = €15.14 excl. VAT
- Ingredient costs: €5.75
- Contribution per portion: €15.14 - €5.75 = €9.39
- Weekly sales: 40 portions
- Total weekly contribution: €9.39 × 40 = €375.60
Scenario 1: Adjusting the dish
Boost profitability through:
- Portion control: Trim ingredients while keeping the same price
- Ingredient swaps: Switch to cheaper cheese or different toppings
- Price bumps: Add €1-2 to the ticket
- Upselling sides: Generate extra revenue per guest
💡 Example adjustment:
Scenario: Cut ingredient costs to €4.50 per portion
- New contribution per portion: €15.14 - €4.50 = €10.64
- Weekly sales drop to 35 portions (losing 5 due to changes): €372.40
- Net difference: €372.40 - €375.60 = -€3.20 weekly
Nearly identical results, but much healthier food cost.
⚠️ Reality check:
Factor in guest pushback. Smaller portions or higher prices typically mean fewer orders.
Scenario 2: Removing the dish
Pulling the dish creates two outcomes:
- Loss: Current contribution vanishes
- Opportunity: Guests pivot to alternatives (hopefully more profitable ones)
The million-dollar question: where do those guests go next? Most kitchen managers discover too late that understanding guest behavior patterns makes or breaks these decisions.
💡 Example removal:
From those 40 weekly Caesar Salad orders:
- 10 guests walk to competitors (complete loss)
- 20 guests order your pasta instead (€12.50 contribution each)
- 10 guests grab your burger (€11.80 contribution each)
New weekly contribution: (20 × €12.50) + (10 × €11.80) = €368
Net change: €368 - €375.60 = -€7.60 weekly
Making the decision
Stack up your scenarios:
- Status quo: €375.60 weekly
- Post-adjustment: €372.40 weekly
- After removal: €368.00 weekly
Here, adjustment wins. You'll keep nearly the same contribution while slashing food cost from 38% down to 30%.
⚠️ Go slow:
Test changes gradually. Minor tweaks often go unnoticed, but dramatic shifts can send regulars packing.
Additional factors to consider
Numbers don't tell the whole story. Also weigh:
- Kitchen workflow: Does prep eat up tons of time?
- Ingredient crossover: Can you use components in other dishes?
- Seasonal costs: Are ingredients pricey now but cheaper later?
- Market positioning: Is this dish expected at every local spot?
Tools like KitchenNmbrs automate these calculations and let you model different scenarios without spreadsheet headaches.
How do you calculate whether adjusting or removing is better?
Calculate the current contribution
Add up: (Selling price excl. VAT - Ingredient costs) × Number sold per week. This is your starting point.
Calculate adjustment scenario
Calculate new contribution with adjusted ingredients/price/portion size. Account for 10-20% less sales due to the change.
Calculate removal scenario
Estimate what guests order as an alternative. Calculate the contribution of those alternatives. Subtract 20-30% for guests who leave.
Compare all scenarios
Choose the scenario with the highest weekly contribution. Also consider food cost percentage - sometimes slightly lower contribution with lower food cost is better for your cashflow.
✨ Pro tip
Run a 72-hour 'ingredient cost reduction' test by temporarily switching to cheaper components before making permanent recipe changes. Track both sales volume and guest feedback during this window.
Calculate this yourself?
In the KitchenNmbrs app you can do this in just a few clicks. 7 days free, no credit card.
Was this article helpful?
Frequently asked questions
How much sales will I lose if I adjust a popular dish?
Small changes like 5% smaller portions often go unnoticed. But price hikes or major recipe overhauls can cost you 10-25% of sales. Test carefully first.
When is removal always better than adjusting?
If the dish hogs kitchen space, needs special ingredients you don't use elsewhere, or runs above 40% food cost with no room to improve. Sometimes cutting losses beats fighting uphill battles.
How do I predict what guests will order as alternatives?
Dig into your sales data to see what similar customer segments typically choose. You can also run a 'sold out' test or simply ask regulars what their backup choice would be.
📚 Sources consulted
- EU Verordening 852/2004 — Levensmiddelenhygiëne (2004) — Official source
- EU Verordening 853/2004 — Hygiënevoorschriften voor levensmiddelen van dierlijke oorsprong (2004) — Official source
- EU Verordening 1169/2011 — Voedselinformatie aan consumenten (2011) — Official source
- NVWA — Hygiënecode voor de horeca (2024) — Official source
- NVWA — Allergenen in voedsel (2024) — Official source
- Codex Alimentarius — International Food Standards (2024) — Official source
- FSA — Safer food, better business (HACCP) (2024) — Official source
- BVL — Lebensmittelhygiene (HACCP) (2024) — Official source
- Warenwetbesluit Bereiding en behandeling van levensmiddelen (2024) — Official source
- WHO — Foodborne diseases estimates (2024) — Official source
Food Standards Agency (FSA) — https://www.food.gov.uk
The HACCP standards shown in this application are for informational purposes only. KitchenNmbrs does not guarantee that displayed values are current or complete. Always consult the FSA or your local authority for the latest regulations.
Written by
Jeffrey Smit
Founder & CEO of KitchenNmbrs
Jeffrey Smit built KitchenNmbrs from 8 years of hands-on experience as kitchen manager at 1NUL8 Group in Rotterdam. His mission: give every restaurant owner control over food cost.
Engineer your menu for maximum margin
Menu engineering combines popularity with profitability. KitchenNmbrs gives you the data to strategically design your menu. Test it free for 14 days.
Start free trial →