Are you leaving money on the table with your cocktail menu? Most bars focus solely on popularity metrics, missing profitable drinks that could boost their bottom line. The Kasavana and Smith matrix reveals which cocktails deserve promotion, pricing adjustments, or complete removal.
What is the Kasavana and Smith matrix?
The Kasavana and Smith matrix, also called menu engineering, combines two essential metrics:
- Popularity: How frequently customers order each cocktail
- Profitability: Your actual profit margin per drink
Crossing these factors creates four distinct categories, each demanding its own strategic approach.
The four quadrants of cocktails
💡 Example matrix:
A bar with 20 cocktails on the menu:
- Stars: Mojito (popular + profitable)
- Plowhorses: Whiskey Sour (popular + less profitable)
- Puzzles: Negroni (less popular + profitable)
- Dogs: Complex signature cocktail (less popular + less profitable)
Stars: High popularity, high profit. These drinks drive your revenue. Keep ingredients stocked and feature them prominently on your menu layout.
Plowhorses: Popular but margin-killers. Customers love them, but they're eating your profits. Try reducing ingredient costs or carefully increasing prices.
Puzzles: Hidden goldmines with low sales volume. Smart positioning or bartender recommendations can transform these into Stars.
Dogs: Neither popular nor profitable. They're cluttering your menu and confusing customers - time for replacement.
Step 1: Calculate profitability per cocktail
You'll need these numbers for each drink:
- Menu price (excluding 21% VAT for alcohol)
- Total ingredient costs
- Pour cost percentage
💡 Example calculation:
Mojito - selling price €9.00 incl. VAT:
- Price excl. VAT: €9.00 / 1.21 = €7.44
- Ingredient costs: €1.85
- Pour cost: (€1.85 / €7.44) × 100 = 24.9%
- Gross profit: €7.44 - €1.85 = €5.59
⚠️ Note:
Alcoholic beverages carry 21% VAT, not 9%. Always use VAT-excluded prices for accurate pour cost calculations.
Step 2: Measure popularity
Pull sales data from your POS system to track unit sales. Calculate each cocktail's percentage of total cocktail volume:
💡 Example popularity:
Last month's sales:
- Total cocktails sold: 800 units
- Mojito: 120 units = 15% of total
- Whiskey Sour: 80 units = 10% of total
- Negroni: 24 units = 3% of total
Step 3: Set your threshold values
Two benchmark lines create your matrix quadrants:
Popularity threshold: Typically the mathematical average across all cocktails. For 20 menu items, that's 5% each (100% / 20).
Profitability threshold: Either your average gross profit across all drinks, or your target minimum profit per cocktail.
Action plan per quadrant
One of the most common blind spots in kitchen management is treating all menu items equally, but each quadrant demands different tactics.
For Stars: Double down on promotion. Feature them in prime menu real estate and train staff to suggest them first.
For Plowhorses: Attack the cost side by negotiating with suppliers or substituting ingredients. Small price increases can also work if done strategically.
For Puzzles: Marketing makeover time. Move them up on your menu, craft compelling descriptions, or incentivize bartenders to recommend them.
For Dogs: Cut them loose. They're wasting menu space and overwhelming customers with too many choices.
💡 Practical example:
Bar 'De Kraan' applied the matrix and:
- Promoted 3 Puzzle cocktails → sales jumped 40%
- Increased prices on 2 Plowhorses by €0.50
- Eliminated 4 Dogs from their menu
- Result: 12% improvement in cocktail margins
How do you apply the matrix to your cocktail menu?
Gather sales and cost data
Pull from your POS system how many of each cocktail you sold last month. At the same time, calculate the cost price of all ingredients per cocktail, including garnish and mixers.
Calculate popularity and profitability
Divide each cocktail by your total cocktail sales for popularity percentage. Calculate the gross profit per cocktail (selling price excl. VAT minus ingredient cost price).
Plot cocktails in the matrix
Draw a cross graph with popularity on the x-axis and profitability on the y-axis. Place each cocktail in the correct quadrant and create an action plan per category.
Implement improvements
Start with your Puzzles (promote) and Plowhorses (lower cost price). Measure again after 4-6 weeks to see if cocktails have moved between quadrants.
✨ Pro tip
Start your matrix analysis with just your top 12 cocktails sold in the past 60 days. These typically represent 75-85% of your total cocktail revenue and deliver maximum impact for your effort.
Calculate this yourself?
In the KitchenNmbrs app you can do this in just a few clicks. 7 days free, no credit card.
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Frequently asked questions
How often should I update the cocktail matrix?
Refresh your analysis every 2-3 months, or after significant menu changes. Seasonal trends can dramatically shift cocktail popularity patterns.
What if a cocktail falls between two quadrants?
Borderline cases are common near threshold lines. Look at the sales trend - is it gaining or losing momentum? Treat it according to the quadrant it's trending toward.
Should I always eliminate Dogs from the menu?
Not always. Sometimes a cocktail serves strategic purposes like brand identity or concept alignment. But limit Dogs to maximum 10% of your menu space.
How do I calculate costs for cocktails with fresh ingredients?
Weigh every component and price per gram. Include garnishes, fresh herbs, even ice - these seemingly small costs add up quickly.
Can I apply this matrix to beer and wine selections?
Absolutely. The principle works across all beverage categories. With wine, compare profit margins per bottle versus per glass, and with beer, analyze draft versus bottled performance.
What's the ideal profit margin threshold for cocktails?
Most successful bars target 20-25% pour costs, meaning 75-80% gross profit margins. But this varies by market positioning and local competition.
📚 Sources consulted
- EU Verordening 852/2004 — Levensmiddelenhygiëne (2004) — Official source
- EU Verordening 853/2004 — Hygiënevoorschriften voor levensmiddelen van dierlijke oorsprong (2004) — Official source
- EU Verordening 1169/2011 — Voedselinformatie aan consumenten (2011) — Official source
- NVWA — Hygiënecode voor de horeca (2024) — Official source
- NVWA — Allergenen in voedsel (2024) — Official source
- Codex Alimentarius — International Food Standards (2024) — Official source
- FSA — Safer food, better business (HACCP) (2024) — Official source
- BVL — Lebensmittelhygiene (HACCP) (2024) — Official source
- Warenwetbesluit Bereiding en behandeling van levensmiddelen (2024) — Official source
- WHO — Foodborne diseases estimates (2024) — Official source
Food Standards Agency (FSA) — https://www.food.gov.uk
The HACCP standards shown in this application are for informational purposes only. KitchenNmbrs does not guarantee that displayed values are current or complete. Always consult the FSA or your local authority for the latest regulations.
Written by
Jeffrey Smit
Founder & CEO of KitchenNmbrs
Jeffrey Smit built KitchenNmbrs from 8 years of hands-on experience as kitchen manager at 1NUL8 Group in Rotterdam. His mission: give every restaurant owner control over food cost.
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