Picture walking into your kitchen each morning knowing exactly what to prepare and in what quantities. Most restaurants rely on instinct, leading to costly overproduction or disappointing sellouts. Combining your inventory counts with sales patterns gives you the precision to produce just what you need.
Why numbers beat guesswork every time
Knowing your current stock levels and recent sales creates a simple equation: what you expect to sell minus what you already have equals what you need to make. This approach eliminates three profit killers: wasted ingredients from making too much, missed revenue from running out, and excess labor from poor planning.
💡 Example:
Restaurant De Eetkamer sells an average of 45 pasta carbonaras on Friday. Yesterday they sold 38 portions:
- Expected sales Friday: 45 portions
- Leftover from yesterday: 7 portions (still fresh)
- To produce: 45 - 7 = 38 portions
Savings: 7 fewer portions to make = €35 less in ingredients + 30 minutes less prep
Pull the right sales information
Your POS system holds the answers—you just need to ask the right questions. Track daily dish sales, but don't stop there. You'll also need seasonal trends and special event impacts.
- Weekly dish averages: Total the last 4 weeks and divide by 4 for each menu item
- Year-over-year comparison: December sales differ drastically from March numbers
- External factors: Weather, local events, and holidays shift normal patterns
⚠️ Note:
Use at least 3 weeks of data. With less than 3 weeks, your averages are unreliable due to random fluctuations.
Track what you have and how long it'll last
Inventory isn't just about quantities—freshness matters too. That leftover soup might look fine today, but if it expires tomorrow, it changes your production math completely.
💡 Example:
You have 12 portions of ratatouille left from yesterday:
- Fresh until tomorrow: 12 portions
- Expected sales today: 18 portions
- To produce: 18 - 12 = 6 new portions
- Planning for tomorrow: sell the 12 from yesterday first
Don't forget the labor equation
Every dish costs you time, and time equals money. From tracking this across dozens of restaurants, I've seen that labor often represents 30-40% of total food costs. If your chef needs 2 hours to prep 50 portions at €20/hour, you're looking at €0.80 in labor per portion. Overproduction wastes both ingredients and wages.
- Time per portion: Measure actual prep minutes for individual dishes
- Batch efficiency: Making 50 portions takes less than 50× the time of making one
- Smart grouping: Prep dishes with shared ingredients together
Build smart buffers for busy spells
Perfect forecasting doesn't exist, so plan for 10-15% more than your prediction. But resist going higher—too much buffer creates permanent waste patterns.
💡 Example calculation with buffer:
Expected sales: 35 portions of steak
- 15% buffer: 35 × 1.15 = 40 portions
- Inventory: 8 portions
- To produce: 40 - 8 = 32 portions
If you sell 38: 2 left over (acceptable). If you sell 42: sold out (unfortunate, but rare).
Choose your tools wisely
Excel handles basic calculations, but juggling multiple dishes with varying shelf lives gets messy fast. A food cost calculator like KitchenNmbrs processes your sales and inventory automatically, factoring in expiration dates and labor costs per dish.
How do you set up data-driven production planning? (step by step)
Gather 4 weeks of sales data per dish
Export your POS data and calculate the daily average per dish for each day of the week. Monday is different from Friday, so calculate separately for each day. Use at least 3 weeks of data for reliable averages.
Count your current inventory and shelf life
Make a list of all prepared dishes you still have, including when they expire. Dishes that spoil tomorrow must be sold today, so they count double in your planning.
Calculate production minus inventory plus buffer
Subtract your inventory from your expected sales and add a 10-15% buffer. Formula: (Expected sales × 1.15) - Current inventory = To produce. Check this every morning for that day.
✨ Pro tip
Review your inventory levels and previous day's sales every morning at 9:30 AM, then calculate exact production needs for the next 48 hours. This 15-minute routine prevents €200-400 monthly waste across most mid-sized kitchens.
Calculate this yourself?
In the KitchenNmbrs app you can do this in just a few clicks. 7 days free, no credit card.
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Frequently asked questions
How much buffer should I plan for unexpected busy periods?
Plan 10-15% extra for normal days, and 20-25% for special days like Friday or events. More than 25% buffer leads to structural waste.
What if my sales data is unreliable due to seasons?
Compare with the same period last year instead of last month. You sell different volumes in December than in March. Use seasonal correction or ask fellow business owners about their experiences.
How do I factor labor costs into production planning?
Calculate how much time your chef spends on prep per dish. At €20/hour labor costs and 10 minutes prep, each portion costs €3.33 in labor. So overproduction also wastes labor costs.
Do I need to plan every day or can I do it weekly?
Plan daily for perishable items and weekly for shelf-stable inventory. Fresh fish and meat you plan every morning, frozen and dry goods you can order and plan weekly.
📚 Sources consulted
- EU Verordening 852/2004 — Levensmiddelenhygiëne (2004) — Official source
- EU Verordening 853/2004 — Hygiënevoorschriften voor levensmiddelen van dierlijke oorsprong (2004) — Official source
- EU Verordening 1169/2011 — Voedselinformatie aan consumenten (2011) — Official source
- NVWA — Hygiënecode voor de horeca (2024) — Official source
- NVWA — Allergenen in voedsel (2024) — Official source
- Codex Alimentarius — International Food Standards (2024) — Official source
- FSA — Safer food, better business (HACCP) (2024) — Official source
- BVL — Lebensmittelhygiene (HACCP) (2024) — Official source
- Warenwetbesluit Bereiding en behandeling van levensmiddelen (2024) — Official source
- WHO — Foodborne diseases estimates (2024) — Official source
Food Standards Agency (FSA) — https://www.food.gov.uk
The HACCP standards shown in this application are for informational purposes only. KitchenNmbrs does not guarantee that displayed values are current or complete. Always consult the FSA or your local authority for the latest regulations.
Written by
Jeffrey Smit
Founder & CEO of KitchenNmbrs
Jeffrey Smit built KitchenNmbrs from 8 years of hands-on experience as kitchen manager at 1NUL8 Group in Rotterdam. His mission: give every restaurant owner control over food cost.
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