Here's what nobody tells you about ghost kitchens: overproduction will kill your margins faster than any other mistake. You prep for 100 orders, get 70, and watch €60 worth of ingredients go straight into the bin. The math is brutal, but fixable.
What is overproduction in a ghost kitchen?
Overproduction happens when you prep more ingredients than you actually sell. In a regular restaurant you can sometimes improvise with leftovers, but in a ghost kitchen you only have your fixed menu for delivery.
💡 Example:
You expect 80 burger orders and prep:
- 80 buns at €0.45 = €36.00
- 80 burgers at €2.20 = €176.00
- Sliced vegetables for 80 portions = €24.00
Only 55 orders come in. You have €60.00 worth of ingredients left that won't be good tomorrow.
The formula for overproduction impact
Calculate the impact of overproduction like this:
Overproduction loss = (Prepped quantity - Sold quantity) × Cost price per portion
Add this loss to your food cost of the sold portions to see your real margin. After managing kitchen operations for nearly a decade, I've seen this calculation shock operators who thought they were profitable.
💡 Calculation example:
Burger menu selling price: €12.50 incl. 9% VAT = €11.47 excl. VAT
- Cost price per burger: €3.00
- Prepped: 80 units
- Sold: 55 units
- Overproduction: 25 units × €3.00 = €75.00 loss
Real food cost: (55 × €3.00 + €75.00) / (55 × €11.47) = 41.6%
Without overproduction it would have been 26.2%!
Platform fees make it worse
With ghost kitchens you also need to factor in platform fees. If Deliveroo or Uber Eats takes 25% of your order value, you have less room for mistakes.
- Normal food cost: 28-32%
- Platform fee: 20-30%
- Other costs: 25-35%
- Profit: 5-15%
If overproduction pushes your food cost from 30% to 40%, your entire profit disappears.
⚠️ Note:
Always calculate with your selling price excl. VAT and excl. platform fee. Otherwise your margin looks higher than it actually is.
How do you prevent overproduction?
The smartest strategy is data-driven planning based on historical sales:
- Check your averages: How much do you normally sell on this day/time?
- Look at trends: Is it raining? Football match? That affects orders
- Start conservative: Better 5% too little than 20% too much
- Prep in phases: Not everything at 4pm, but also at 6pm and 8pm
💡 Smart prepping:
Instead of prepping everything upfront:
- 60% at 4pm (base stock)
- 25% at 6pm (if it gets busy)
- 15% at 8pm (only during peak hours)
This way you avoid ending up with large surpluses.
Track your overproduction
Keep track of how much you throw away and why. This gives you insight into patterns and helps you plan better.
Tools like KitchenNmbrs help you track cost prices and sales, so you can quickly see what overproduction costs and where to adjust.
How do you calculate overproduction impact? (step by step)
Count your overproduction
Note how many portions you prepped and how many you actually sold. The difference is your overproduction that you'll probably have to throw away.
Calculate the loss in euros
Multiply your overproduction by the cost price per portion. This is your direct loss from overproduction.
Calculate your real food cost
Add the overproduction loss to your normal ingredient costs and divide by your actual revenue. This shows your real margin after waste.
✨ Pro tip
Track your actual vs predicted orders every Tuesday and Friday for 3 weeks - these are typically your most unpredictable days. You'll spot weather and event patterns that standard weekly averages miss completely.
Calculate this yourself?
In the KitchenNmbrs app you can do this in just a few clicks. 7 days free, no credit card.
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Frequently asked questions
Can I use leftover ingredients the next day?
That depends on the product. Sliced vegetables, sauces and meat are often no longer suitable after 1 day. Only dry ingredients like buns can sometimes be used again.
What is an acceptable overproduction percentage?
For ghost kitchens, 5-10% overproduction is normal. Above 15% becomes a serious problem for your margin.
Should I include platform fees in my calculation?
Yes, platform fees are part of your cost structure. Always calculate with your net revenue after platform fees for a realistic picture.
How do I better predict how much I should prep?
Analyze your sales from the last 4 weeks on the same day and time. Also look at external factors like weather, events or holidays that affect your sales.
Is overproduction worse than having too little stock?
Both cost money, but overproduction is often worse because you lose twice: you've paid for the ingredients and you miss the sale. With too little stock you only miss the sale.
Should I calculate overproduction differently for perishable vs non-perishable items?
Absolutely. Non-perishables like dry spices or canned goods can often be used the next day, so their overproduction cost is lower. Perishables like cut vegetables or marinated proteins are a total loss.
How does overproduction affect my weekly P&L differently than daily calculations?
Daily overproduction spikes can hide in weekly averages, making your P&L look better than reality. Track it daily to spot patterns - Tuesday overproduction might consistently kill your weekly margins.
📚 Sources consulted
- EU Verordening 852/2004 — Levensmiddelenhygiëne (2004) — Official source
- EU Verordening 853/2004 — Hygiënevoorschriften voor levensmiddelen van dierlijke oorsprong (2004) — Official source
- EU Verordening 1169/2011 — Voedselinformatie aan consumenten (2011) — Official source
- NVWA — Hygiënecode voor de horeca (2024) — Official source
- NVWA — Allergenen in voedsel (2024) — Official source
- Codex Alimentarius — International Food Standards (2024) — Official source
- FSA — Safer food, better business (HACCP) (2024) — Official source
- BVL — Lebensmittelhygiene (HACCP) (2024) — Official source
- Warenwetbesluit Bereiding en behandeling van levensmiddelen (2024) — Official source
- WHO — Foodborne diseases estimates (2024) — Official source
Food Standards Agency (FSA) — https://www.food.gov.uk
The HACCP standards shown in this application are for informational purposes only. KitchenNmbrs does not guarantee that displayed values are current or complete. Always consult the FSA or your local authority for the latest regulations.
Written by
Jeffrey Smit
Founder & CEO of KitchenNmbrs
Jeffrey Smit built KitchenNmbrs from 8 years of hands-on experience as kitchen manager at 1NUL8 Group in Rotterdam. His mission: give every restaurant owner control over food cost.
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