Most restaurant owners think they're profitable when they're actually bleeding money every month. They don't know their minimum required average bill to break even. Here's how to calculate exactly what each guest needs to spend for your restaurant to survive.
What is the average bill?
The average bill is the amount each guest spends on average in your restaurant. You calculate this by dividing your total revenue by the number of guests.
💡 Example:
Restaurant De Smaak had last month:
- Revenue: €45,000
- Number of guests: 1,800
Average bill: €45,000 ÷ 1,800 = €25.00
Calculate your total monthly costs
For your break-even calculation, you need a complete overview of all your costs. Don't forget any cost item - you need to earn back every euro.
Fixed costs per month:
- Rent and service charges
- Insurance
- Equipment depreciation
- Software subscriptions
- Marketing and advertising
Variable costs per month:
- Personnel costs (including social contributions)
- Food and beverage purchases
- Gas, water, electricity
- Cleaning supplies
- Other operational costs
💡 Example costs Restaurant De Smaak:
- Rent: €4,500
- Personnel: €18,000
- Purchases: €13,500 (30% of revenue)
- Energy: €2,200
- Other: €1,800
Total costs: €40,000 per month
Estimate your expected number of guests
Count how many guests you expect per day and multiply by your opening days. Be realistic - it's better to be cautious than overly optimistic.
Calculate this for different scenarios:
- Conservative: 80% of your expectation
- Realistic: Your best estimate
- Optimistic: 120% of your expectation
⚠️ Note:
Always calculate your break-even using the conservative scenario. If you achieve that, you're safe. Everything above that is profit.
The break-even formula
Now you can calculate what average bill you need at minimum:
Required average bill = Total monthly costs ÷ Expected number of guests
💡 Example calculation:
Restaurant De Smaak (conservative scenario):
- Total costs: €40,000
- Expected guests: 1,600 (80% of 2,000)
Break-even bill: €40,000 ÷ 1,600 = €25.00
Check if your break-even is achievable
Compare your required average bill with what's standard in your type of restaurant and price range. If your break-even bill is much higher than market rates, you have a problem.
Standard average bills:
- Casual dining: €18 - €28
- Fine dining: €45 - €85
- Bistro/brasserie: €22 - €35
- Lunch spot: €12 - €18
- Pizzeria: €16 - €25
If your required bill is too high, you have three options:
- Lower costs: Cheaper location, more efficient purchasing
- Attract more guests: Better marketing, longer opening hours
- Adjust your concept: Justify a higher price range
Use your break-even for daily management
After managing kitchen operations for nearly a decade, I've learned that knowing your break-even is just the start - you need to track it daily to stay profitable.
Calculate your daily break-even:
Daily break-even revenue = Monthly costs ÷ Opening days
💡 Daily check:
Restaurant De Smaak (26 days open):
- €40,000 ÷ 26 days = €1,538 per day
- At 60 guests: €1,538 ÷ 60 = €25.63 average bill needed
- At 80 guests: €1,538 ÷ 80 = €19.23 average bill needed
How do you calculate your required average bill? (step by step)
Add up all your monthly costs
Make a complete list of all fixed and variable costs. Don't forget anything: rent, personnel, purchases, energy, insurance, depreciation. Add everything together for your total monthly costs.
Estimate your expected number of guests per month
Realistically calculate how many guests you expect per day and multiply by your opening days. Create three scenarios: conservative (80%), realistic (100%), and optimistic (120%).
Divide your costs by your guests
Use the formula: Total monthly costs ÷ Expected number of guests = Required average bill. Always calculate your break-even using the conservative scenario.
✨ Pro tip
Track your actual average bill against break-even every Tuesday and Friday - if you're 15% below target for 10 consecutive days, immediately adjust portion sizes or implement upselling tactics.
Calculate this yourself?
In the KitchenNmbrs app you can do this in just a few clicks. 7 days free, no credit card.
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Frequently asked questions
Should I include VAT in my break-even calculation?
No, calculate with amounts excluding VAT. Your costs are also excluding VAT and the VAT you collect you pass on to the tax authorities. Focus on the net amounts you actually keep.
What if my required average bill is higher than market standard?
Then you need to lower costs, attract more guests, or move your concept to a higher price range. A break-even bill that's too high means your business model isn't viable in its current form.
Can I use different average bills for different parts of the day?
Yes, lunch often has a lower average bill than dinner. Calculate per time period how much revenue you need and add those together for your total daily revenue. This gives you more precise targets for each service.
📚 Sources consulted
- EU Verordening 852/2004 — Levensmiddelenhygiëne (2004) — Official source
- EU Verordening 853/2004 — Hygiënevoorschriften voor levensmiddelen van dierlijke oorsprong (2004) — Official source
- EU Verordening 1169/2011 — Voedselinformatie aan consumenten (2011) — Official source
- NVWA — Hygiënecode voor de horeca (2024) — Official source
- NVWA — Allergenen in voedsel (2024) — Official source
- Codex Alimentarius — International Food Standards (2024) — Official source
- FSA — Safer food, better business (HACCP) (2024) — Official source
- BVL — Lebensmittelhygiene (HACCP) (2024) — Official source
- Warenwetbesluit Bereiding en behandeling van levensmiddelen (2024) — Official source
- WHO — Foodborne diseases estimates (2024) — Official source
Food Standards Agency (FSA) — https://www.food.gov.uk
The HACCP standards shown in this application are for informational purposes only. KitchenNmbrs does not guarantee that displayed values are current or complete. Always consult the FSA or your local authority for the latest regulations.
Written by
Jeffrey Smit
Founder & CEO of KitchenNmbrs
Jeffrey Smit built KitchenNmbrs from 8 years of hands-on experience as kitchen manager at 1NUL8 Group in Rotterdam. His mission: give every restaurant owner control over food cost.
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