A cashflow calculation prevents you from running out of money after 3 months. While many new restaurants draft business plans, they often skip the detailed monthly income and expense calculations. You'll master the step-by-step process for creating a realistic six-month cashflow forecast.
Why cashflow differs from profit
Profit on paper doesn't guarantee money in your account. You purchase inventory before selling it. Rent gets paid before opening day. And customers only pay after they've finished eating.
⚠️ Note:
A restaurant can show profits on paper but still face bankruptcy from cashflow issues. Plan month-by-month what flows in and out.
Gather all startup costs
Your cashflow calculation requires a complete cost overview first. Split these into one-time startup expenses and monthly recurring costs.
💡 Example startup costs:
- Kitchen setup: €45.000
- Dining room furniture: €25.000
- Permits: €3.500
- Opening marketing: €5.000
- Initial inventory: €8.000
Total startup costs: €86.500
Calculate your monthly fixed costs
These expenses hit every month, regardless of sales volume. Calculate conservatively - overestimating beats nasty surprises.
- Rent: Including service charges and terrace fees
- Staff: Gross salary plus employer contributions (roughly 30% extra)
- Insurance: Business liability, inventory, legal protection
- Energy: Gas, water, electricity - budget 4-6% of expected revenue
- Other costs: Accountant, software, minor repairs
💡 Example fixed costs per month:
- Rent: €4.500
- Staff (chef + service): €8.500
- Insurance: €450
- Energy: €1.200
- Other: €800
Total fixed costs: €15.450/month
Estimate your monthly revenue realistically
Many starters get too optimistic about revenue. Start conservatively and build gradually. Work with different scenarios: pessimistic, realistic, and optimistic.
Calculate revenue using covers × average bill × operating days:
💡 Example revenue calculation month 2:
- Average 35 covers per day
- Average bill value: €28
- Open 6 days per week = 26 days
Revenue month 2: 35 × €28 × 26 = €25.480
Calculate your variable costs
These costs rise with revenue. Main ones include ingredient purchases (food cost) and possibly extra staff during peak times. Most kitchen managers discover too late that variable costs can spiral quickly without proper tracking systems in place.
- Food cost: Budget 30-35% of revenue
- Beverage purchases: About 25% of beverage revenue
- Credit card fees: 0.5-1.5% of revenue
- Extra staff: You might need additional help during busy periods
Create a month-by-month overview
Put everything in a monthly table. Start with startup capital and add income while subtracting expenses each month.
💡 Example cashflow month 3:
- Opening balance: €15.000
- Revenue in: €28.000
- Fixed costs out: €15.450
- Variable costs out: €9.800
Closing balance: €15.000 + €28.000 - €25.250 = €17.750
⚠️ Note:
Plan a buffer of at least €20.000 for unexpected expenses. Equipment always breaks at the worst possible moment.
Timing additional financing
If your cashflow drops below €10.000 in any month, things get tight. You'll lose room for unexpected expenses or disappointing revenue.
Calculate in advance when this happens, so you can arrange additional financing early. Applying for credit lines while already struggling becomes much harder.
How do you calculate cashflow? (step by step)
Make a list of all startup costs
Write down everything you need to pay once: setup, permits, initial inventory, marketing. Add this up for your total startup cost.
Calculate your monthly fixed costs
Add up rent, staff, insurance, energy and other costs. You have these every month, regardless of your revenue.
Estimate your monthly revenue conservatively
Calculate number of covers × average bill × days open. Start low and build up gradually - better to be pleasantly surprised.
Calculate variable costs per month
Food cost (30-35% of revenue), beverage purchases (25% of beverage revenue) and credit card fees (1% of revenue) increase with your sales.
Put everything in a monthly overview
Create a table with per month: opening balance + income - expenses = closing balance. This shows you when you might run short on cash.
✨ Pro tip
Build three scenarios using 70%, 85%, and 100% of your projected revenue for months 2-6. This gives you early warning signals if actual performance drifts toward the pessimistic range.
Calculate this yourself?
In the KitchenNmbrs app you can do this in just a few clicks. 7 days free, no credit card.
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Frequently asked questions
How much buffer should I keep for unexpected costs?
Plan at least €20.000 extra on top of your calculated cashflow. Equipment always breaks at the worst time and repairs can be expensive.
Should I include VAT in my cashflow calculation?
Yes, calculate with amounts including VAT because you actually pay that. You get VAT back from the tax authority, but that takes 1-2 months.
How realistic should I be with my revenue forecast?
Start pessimistically and build up gradually. Many starters overestimate their revenue by 30-50%. Better to be pleasantly surprised than run out of cash.
📚 Sources consulted
- EU Verordening 852/2004 — Levensmiddelenhygiëne (2004) — Official source
- EU Verordening 853/2004 — Hygiënevoorschriften voor levensmiddelen van dierlijke oorsprong (2004) — Official source
- EU Verordening 1169/2011 — Voedselinformatie aan consumenten (2011) — Official source
- NVWA — Hygiënecode voor de horeca (2024) — Official source
- NVWA — Allergenen in voedsel (2024) — Official source
- Codex Alimentarius — International Food Standards (2024) — Official source
- FSA — Safer food, better business (HACCP) (2024) — Official source
- BVL — Lebensmittelhygiene (HACCP) (2024) — Official source
- Warenwetbesluit Bereiding en behandeling van levensmiddelen (2024) — Official source
- WHO — Foodborne diseases estimates (2024) — Official source
Food Standards Agency (FSA) — https://www.food.gov.uk
The HACCP standards shown in this application are for informational purposes only. KitchenNmbrs does not guarantee that displayed values are current or complete. Always consult the FSA or your local authority for the latest regulations.
Written by
Jeffrey Smit
Founder & CEO of KitchenNmbrs
Jeffrey Smit built KitchenNmbrs from 8 years of hands-on experience as kitchen manager at 1NUL8 Group in Rotterdam. His mission: give every restaurant owner control over food cost.
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