Free-choice deals create unpredictable food costs that can destroy your margins overnight. Your €35 three-course deal might cost you €8 or €15 depending on what guests select. Here's how to maintain control without eliminating choice.
Why free choice deals are risky
A 3-course deal for €35 seems straightforward. Until you notice that 80% of your guests choose the most expensive options. You calculated on an average €10 food cost, but end up at €13.50. Per deal you lose €3.50 in margin.
⚠️ Note:
Guests often choose the most expensive options. Never base your deal price on the cheapest combination.
Calculate your worst-case and best-case scenario
For every deal you need to know what the most expensive and cheapest combination costs. This gives you the range your food cost falls within.
💡 Example 3-course deal:
Starters:
- Soup: €2.50 food cost
- Carpaccio: €6.20 food cost
- Salad: €3.80 food cost
Main courses:
- Pasta: €4.50 food cost
- Fish: €9.80 food cost
- Steak: €11.20 food cost
Desserts:
- Ice cream: €1.80 food cost
- Tiramisu: €3.50 food cost
Cheapest combination: €2.50 + €4.50 + €1.80 = €8.80
Most expensive combination: €6.20 + €11.20 + €3.50 = €20.90
Use the 80/20 rule for realistic calculation
Assume that 80% of your guests choose the pricier options. Create a weighted average based on what you expect guests will order.
💡 Realistic distribution:
Out of 100 guests you expect:
- 20% choose soup (€2.50)
- 30% choose salad (€3.80)
- 50% choose carpaccio (€6.20)
Main course:
- 25% choose pasta (€4.50)
- 35% choose fish (€9.80)
- 40% choose steak (€11.20)
Average starter: (20% × €2.50) + (30% × €3.80) + (50% × €6.20) = €4.74
Average main course: (25% × €4.50) + (35% × €9.80) + (40% × €11.20) = €8.93
Set a maximum food cost per deal
Determine beforehand what your maximum food cost should be for the deal. With a €35 deal (excl. VAT €32.11) and desired food cost of 30% you can spend a maximum of €9.63 on ingredients.
If your expected average exceeds this maximum, you've got three options:
- Increase deal price
- Replace expensive options with cheaper alternatives
- Reduce portion size of expensive items
Monitor your actual choices
Track which combinations guests actually choose during the first few weeks. This gives you data to adjust your calculation. From years of working in professional kitchens, I've learned that guest behavior often surprises you - sometimes they avoid the most expensive option if the mid-range choice sounds more appealing.
💡 Tracking example:
Week 1 results from 50 deals:
- Carpaccio: chosen 35 times (70%)
- Steak: chosen 28 times (56%)
- Tiramisu: chosen 32 times (64%)
Actual average food cost: €16.80 per deal
At €35 deal price: 52% food cost - way too high!
Adjust with menu engineering
If your food cost turns out too high, you can subtly guide guests toward cheaper options:
- Descriptions: Make cheaper options more appealing in the text
- Order: Put cheaper options at the top
- Portions: Make cheaper options slightly larger
- Presentation: Make sure cheaper dishes look amazing
⚠️ Note:
Never suddenly remove popular expensive options. Guests expect choice. Adjust gradually through descriptions and presentation.
Use seasons for cost savings
Adjust your deal options per season. Replace expensive ingredients with seasonal alternatives that are cheaper but equally appealing. Tools like KitchenNmbrs can help you track these seasonal cost fluctuations automatically.
For example: replace steak in winter with game stew, or substitute summer fish with seasonal vegetables in autumn.
How do you calculate food cost with free choice deals?
Calculate cost price per option
Make a list of all choice options and calculate the exact food cost of each option. Don't forget garnishes, sauces or side dishes.
Estimate realistic choice patterns
Assume 80% expensive choices and 20% cheap choices. Create a weighted average of what guests are likely to order.
Determine your maximum food cost
Calculate what you can spend at most on ingredients at your desired margin. Adjust deal price or options if your average is too high.
Monitor and adjust
Track which combinations guests choose during the first few weeks. Use this data to adjust your calculation and optimize options.
✨ Pro tip
Create one 'decoy' expensive option per course that's 40% more costly than your target average. Most guests will choose the second-most expensive option, making your costs predictable within a 15% range.
Calculate this yourself?
In the KitchenNmbrs app you can do this in just a few clicks. 7 days free, no credit card.
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Frequently asked questions
What if my food cost turns out higher than planned?
You have three options: increase deal price, replace expensive options with cheaper alternatives, or adjust portion size of expensive items. Monitor for a week first to be sure of the pattern. Don't panic after just one busy night.
Should I charge different prices per combination?
You can, but then it's no longer a true 'free choice' deal. Guests expect one fixed price with deals. Only consider this if your food cost doesn't work out otherwise.
How do I calculate food cost for dishes with variable garnishes?
Create a standard cost for your base dish, then add the average cost of garnishes guests typically choose. If 60% add expensive garnish A and 40% choose cheap garnish B, use that weighted average. Track actual choices weekly and adjust accordingly.
📚 Sources consulted
- EU Verordening 852/2004 — Levensmiddelenhygiëne (2004) — Official source
- EU Verordening 853/2004 — Hygiënevoorschriften voor levensmiddelen van dierlijke oorsprong (2004) — Official source
- EU Verordening 1169/2011 — Voedselinformatie aan consumenten (2011) — Official source
- NVWA — Hygiënecode voor de horeca (2024) — Official source
- NVWA — Allergenen in voedsel (2024) — Official source
- Codex Alimentarius — International Food Standards (2024) — Official source
- FSA — Safer food, better business (HACCP) (2024) — Official source
- BVL — Lebensmittelhygiene (HACCP) (2024) — Official source
- Warenwetbesluit Bereiding en behandeling van levensmiddelen (2024) — Official source
- WHO — Foodborne diseases estimates (2024) — Official source
Food Standards Agency (FSA) — https://www.food.gov.uk
The HACCP standards shown in this application are for informational purposes only. KitchenNmbrs does not guarantee that displayed values are current or complete. Always consult the FSA or your local authority for the latest regulations.
Written by
Jeffrey Smit
Founder & CEO of KitchenNmbrs
Jeffrey Smit built KitchenNmbrs from 8 years of hands-on experience as kitchen manager at 1NUL8 Group in Rotterdam. His mission: give every restaurant owner control over food cost.
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