Most restaurant owners think they know their food costs, but seasonal price swings tell a different story. What costs €8 per portion in winter can suddenly become €12 in summer due to expensive tomatoes and cucumbers. You'll discover how to map out these differences precisely and adjust your menu accordingly.
Why seasonal margins matter so much
Your menu displays prices you set back in January. But your supplier adjusts prices by season. Tomatoes cost €8 per kilo in December, €3 per kilo in July. If you don't track this, you'll earn much less in winter than you expect.
💡 Example:
Caprese salad - ingredients winter vs summer:
- Tomatoes: €8/kg (winter) vs €3/kg (summer)
- Basil: €45/kg (winter) vs €25/kg (summer)
- Mozzarella: €12/kg (stable)
Portion costs: €4.20 (winter) vs €2.10 (summer)
Difference: €2.10 per plate!
Gather your seasonal data
Start with your 10 best-selling dishes. For each dish, create an overview of ingredients that fluctuate significantly in price. These are usually fresh vegetables, fruit, and herbs.
- Check your supplier lists from January, April, July, and October
- Pay special attention to tomatoes, cucumber, bell peppers, zucchini, asparagus
- Don't forget herbs: basil, parsley, dill vary enormously
- Fruit for desserts: strawberries, raspberries, cherries
⚠️ Note:
Meat and fish also fluctuate, but less predictably. Focus first on vegetables and fruit - that's where you'll see the biggest seasonal differences.
Calculate your margin differences per season
For each dish, calculate the cost price across four seasons. Use this formula: Food cost % = (Ingredient costs / Sales price excl. VAT) × 100
💡 Example calculation:
Tomato-mozzarella salad - menu price €16.50 incl. VAT:
- Sales price excl. VAT: €15.14
- Winter cost price: €4.20 → 27.7% food cost
- Summer cost price: €2.10 → 13.9% food cost
Difference: 13.8 percentage points!
Create a seasonal calendar for your menu
Put all your dishes into an overview showing their food cost per month. This way you can see at a glance which dishes are profitable and when. One of the most common blind spots in kitchen management is assuming food costs remain static year-round.
- Green: food cost below 30% (push this dish)
- Orange: food cost 30-35% (normal, no action needed)
- Red: food cost above 35% (adjust or make less prominent)
During winter you feature warm dishes with seasonal vegetables prominently on your menu. Summer calls for making your salad offerings a focal point.
Adjust your menu strategically per season
You don't need to overhaul your entire menu every month. But you can steer things smartly:
- Seasonal specials: Dishes that are only available when ingredients are cheap
- Rotating daily specials: More salads in summer, more stews in winter
- Staff recommendations: Coach your team to push profitable dishes
💡 Real-world example:
Restaurant De Kust adjusts every three months:
- Summer: 4 salads featured prominently, soup as side dish
- Winter: 2 salads, 3 warm appetizers featured prominently
- Daily special always follows seasonal vegetables
Result: food cost stable around 28% all year
Monitor and adjust monthly
Track your food cost per dish every month. Suppliers adjust prices without warning. What was 25% food cost last month can suddenly become 32%.
With a system like KitchenNmbrs you can see directly which dishes are out of line and quickly adjust with price changes or substitute ingredients.
How do you map out seasonal margins? (step by step)
Select your top 10 dishes
Choose your best-selling dishes. Focus on dishes with fresh vegetables, fruit, or herbs. These fluctuate most in price.
Gather price data from 4 seasons
Check your supplier lists from January, April, July, and October. Note the prices of all seasonal ingredients per dish.
Calculate food cost per season
Calculate the cost price for each dish per season. Use the formula: (ingredient costs / sales price excl. VAT) × 100.
Create a seasonal calendar
Put all dishes in an overview with their food cost per month. Mark green (below 30%), orange (30-35%), and red (above 35%).
Plan your menu adjustments
Determine which dishes you feature when and which you scale back. Create seasonal specials from your most profitable combinations.
✨ Pro tip
Track your 5 highest-margin summer dishes over the next 90 days as autumn approaches. You'll spot exactly which ingredients are driving up costs and can adjust portions or sourcing before winter hits.
Calculate this yourself?
In the KitchenNmbrs app you can do this in just a few clicks. 7 days free, no credit card.
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Frequently asked questions
How often should I update my seasonal analysis?
Check your prices and food cost at least every 3 months. Suppliers often adjust mid-quarter, so keep an eye on your best-selling dishes monthly.
Which ingredients fluctuate most in price?
Tomatoes, bell peppers, zucchini, cucumber, and fresh herbs like basil and parsley show the biggest swings. Seasonal fruits like strawberries and asparagus also vary enormously.
Do I need to adjust my menu every month?
No, that's too much hassle for guests. Work with seasonal specials and daily specials that you can adjust, and keep your base menu stable.
What if my food cost gets too high in winter?
Replace expensive seasonal vegetables with cheaper alternatives, raise the menu price, or make the dish less prominent on your menu. Sometimes a simple ingredient swap saves you 5-8 percentage points.
How do I communicate seasonal prices to guests?
Be transparent about seasonal specials. Guests understand that asparagus costs more in December. Make a story out of it: 'Now that the tomatoes are at their best...'
Should I track every single ingredient's seasonal price?
Focus on ingredients that make up more than 15% of a dish's cost first. Tracking every herb and spice will overwhelm you without much benefit.
What's the biggest seasonal price difference I should expect?
Tomatoes can swing 200-300% between peak and off-season. Fresh herbs often double in winter, while root vegetables stay relatively stable year-round.
📚 Sources consulted
- EU Verordening 852/2004 — Levensmiddelenhygiëne (2004) — Official source
- EU Verordening 853/2004 — Hygiënevoorschriften voor levensmiddelen van dierlijke oorsprong (2004) — Official source
- EU Verordening 1169/2011 — Voedselinformatie aan consumenten (2011) — Official source
- NVWA — Hygiënecode voor de horeca (2024) — Official source
- NVWA — Allergenen in voedsel (2024) — Official source
- Codex Alimentarius — International Food Standards (2024) — Official source
- FSA — Safer food, better business (HACCP) (2024) — Official source
- BVL — Lebensmittelhygiene (HACCP) (2024) — Official source
- Warenwetbesluit Bereiding en behandeling van levensmiddelen (2024) — Official source
- WHO — Foodborne diseases estimates (2024) — Official source
Food Standards Agency (FSA) — https://www.food.gov.uk
The HACCP standards shown in this application are for informational purposes only. KitchenNmbrs does not guarantee that displayed values are current or complete. Always consult the FSA or your local authority for the latest regulations.
Written by
Jeffrey Smit
Founder & CEO of KitchenNmbrs
Jeffrey Smit built KitchenNmbrs from 8 years of hands-on experience as kitchen manager at 1NUL8 Group in Rotterdam. His mission: give every restaurant owner control over food cost.
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