Here's a confession: I've watched too many chefs fall in love with seasonal dishes without doing the math. An asparagus dish in May seems profitable, but in October you're paying double for ingredients. That stew flying off the menu in winter? It'll sit untouched come summer.
Why seasonal comparison matters
Most restaurant owners just look at food cost percentages. But that's only half the picture. A dish with 28% food cost in season can jump to 45% out of season. And popularity swings wildly with weather changes.
⚠️ Note:
Always calculate with prices excluding VAT. The €24.50 on your menu is including 9% VAT = €22.48 excluding.
The 4 factors you must compare
Every seasonal comparison needs these 4 data points:
- Ingredient costs per season - What's it cost in and out of season?
- Popularity per month - How much are you actually selling?
- Margin per portion - What's your net earnings?
- Total profit contribution - Popularity × margin = real value
Tracking ingredient costs year-round
Seasonal ingredients can cost 200-300% more out of season. Here's how you calculate the damage:
💡 Example: Asparagus salad vs. Caesar salad
Asparagus salad (€19.50 incl. VAT = €17.89 excl.)
- May (in season): €4.20 ingredients = 23.5% food cost
- October (out of season): €8.90 ingredients = 49.7% food cost
Caesar salad (€16.50 incl. VAT = €15.14 excl.)
- All year: €4.80 ingredients = 31.7% food cost
Measuring and forecasting popularity
Dig into your sales data from last year. How many portions did you move each month? From tracking this across dozens of restaurants, seasonal dishes typically peak for 3-4 months, then drop off a cliff.
💡 Example: Sales figures per month
Asparagus salad:
- April-June: 120 portions/month
- July-March: 15 portions/month
Caesar salad:
- All year: 85 portions/month (stable)
Calculating total profit contribution
Now you figure out which dish brings in more over 12 months. Formula: (Selling price excl. VAT - Ingredient costs) × Number sold
💡 Example: Annual profit contribution
Asparagus salad:
- In season (3 months): (€17.89 - €4.20) × 360 = €4,928
- Out of season (9 months): (€17.89 - €8.90) × 135 = €1,214
- Total year: €6,142
Caesar salad:
- All year: (€15.14 - €4.80) × 1,020 = €10,547
- Total year: €10,547
Weighing risk factors
Seasonal dishes pack extra risks that hit your bottom line:
- Waste - Ingredients spoil faster when demand drops
- Inventory risk - Expensive ingredients sitting around
- Staff knowledge - Your chef has to relearn the dish after 8 months
- Supplier dependency - Fewer backup options if problems hit
⚠️ Note:
Add waste costs to your ingredient costs. With seasonal dishes, 10-15% waste is normal at season's end.
The decision matrix
Build a simple comparison table:
- High profit contribution + Low risk = Star (keep and promote)
- High profit contribution + High risk = Seasonal winner (limited period)
- Low profit contribution + Low risk = Stable filler (can stay)
- Low profit contribution + High risk = Remove or adjust
In our example: Caesar salad wins on total profit contribution and carries less risk. The asparagus salad works as a seasonal special, but not as a permanent fixture. A food cost calculator like KitchenNmbrs can help you track these numbers monthly.
How do you compare seasonal dishes? (step by step)
Calculate ingredient costs per season
List all ingredients and look up prices in peak season and out of season. Calculate the total cost per portion for both periods.
Analyze sales figures from last year
Check your sales data per month. How many portions did you sell of each dish? Seasonal dishes usually have a peak of 3-4 months.
Calculate total profit contribution per year
Multiply your margin per portion (selling price minus ingredients) by the number of portions sold. Add up all months for the total annual result.
Factor in risk factors
Add waste, inventory risk, and supplier dependency to your costs. Seasonal dishes often have 10-15% extra waste.
Make your decision based on the matrix
Compare total profit contribution and risk. High profit + low risk = star. Low profit + high risk = remove or adjust.
✨ Pro tip
Compare your top 3 seasonal dishes from last year against 2 year-round staples over 12 months. If the seasonal trio brings in less total profit, focus your energy on stable menu items instead.
Calculate this yourself?
In the KitchenNmbrs app you can do this in just a few clicks. 7 days free, no credit card.
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Frequently asked questions
Should I always remove seasonal dishes from the menu out of season?
Not necessarily. If food cost stays below 38% out of season and you're still moving decent volume, keep it. But monitor those numbers monthly.
How do I forecast popularity for a brand-new seasonal dish?
Look at similar dishes from last year. A new asparagus creation will likely follow the same seasonal pattern as your other asparagus dishes. Start conservative with your projections.
Can I swap seasonal ingredients for cheaper alternatives?
Absolutely, but be transparent about it. 'Winter asparagus from Peru' costs more than 'green asparagus.' Guests actually appreciate honesty about ingredient origins.
What's an acceptable food cost for seasonal dishes out of season?
Maximum 38-40% if the dish still sells well. Beyond that, you're losing money and should offer a seasonal alternative instead.
📚 Sources consulted
- EU Verordening 852/2004 — Levensmiddelenhygiëne (2004) — Official source
- EU Verordening 853/2004 — Hygiënevoorschriften voor levensmiddelen van dierlijke oorsprong (2004) — Official source
- EU Verordening 1169/2011 — Voedselinformatie aan consumenten (2011) — Official source
- NVWA — Hygiënecode voor de horeca (2024) — Official source
- NVWA — Allergenen in voedsel (2024) — Official source
- Codex Alimentarius — International Food Standards (2024) — Official source
- FSA — Safer food, better business (HACCP) (2024) — Official source
- BVL — Lebensmittelhygiene (HACCP) (2024) — Official source
- Warenwetbesluit Bereiding en behandeling van levensmiddelen (2024) — Official source
- WHO — Foodborne diseases estimates (2024) — Official source
Food Standards Agency (FSA) — https://www.food.gov.uk
The HACCP standards shown in this application are for informational purposes only. KitchenNmbrs does not guarantee that displayed values are current or complete. Always consult the FSA or your local authority for the latest regulations.
Written by
Jeffrey Smit
Founder & CEO of KitchenNmbrs
Jeffrey Smit built KitchenNmbrs from 8 years of hands-on experience as kitchen manager at 1NUL8 Group in Rotterdam. His mission: give every restaurant owner control over food cost.
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