Most kitchen managers make the same mistake - they try to optimize everything at once and end up overwhelmed. Smart operators focus on the scenarios that move the needle most. Start with what actually impacts your bottom line daily.
Start with your biggest pain points
Not every scenario has the same impact on your results. A price increase on your bestseller has more effect than optimizing a dish you sell twice a month.
💡 Example:
Restaurant with 5 popular dishes:
- Steak: 40 portions/week, food cost 38%
- Salmon: 35 portions/week, food cost 32%
- Pasta: 60 portions/week, food cost 28%
- Burger: 25 portions/week, food cost 35%
- Risotto: 8 portions/week, food cost 42%
Start with the steak: highest food cost and high sales volume.
The 80/20 rule for scenarios
In most restaurants, 20% of the dishes account for 80% of revenue. Focus on that 20% first. Once you have control over those, you've solved the biggest part of your problem.
- Get your POS system data
- Find your 5 best-selling dishes from last month
- Calculate the food cost for each dish
- Start with the dish with the highest food cost
Prioritize based on impact
Each scenario has a different impact on your annual profit. Calculate that impact to determine where your time's worth spending. Most kitchen managers discover too late that they've been optimizing low-impact items while ignoring the real profit killers.
💡 Impact calculation:
Steak scenario - food cost from 38% to 33%:
- 40 portions/week × 52 weeks = 2,080 portions/year
- Selling price: €32 excl. VAT
- Savings per portion: €32 × 5% = €1.60
- Total savings: 2,080 × €1.60 = €3,328/year
That's €277 extra profit per month.
Common scenarios in order of impact
This order works for most restaurants:
- Food cost bestsellers: Biggest impact, relatively easy
- Supplier price increase: Happens regularly, direct effect
- Adjust menu price: Big impact, but sensitive topic
- Optimize portion size: Often invisible to guests
- Reduce cutting waste: Requires training, but pays off
⚠️ Note:
Don't start with price increases. Start with cost reduction. That's less risky and gives you confidence in the numbers.
When calculating doesn't make sense
Some scenarios seem interesting but have little practical value:
- Dishes you sell fewer than 10 times per month
- Seasonal dishes (unless the season is now)
- Complex scenarios with many uncertain factors
- Theoretical situations that probably won't happen
Practical approach for your first month
Week 1-2: Calculate food cost of your 5 bestsellers. No action, just measure.
Week 3: Choose the dish with the highest food cost. Calculate what a 2-3 percentage point improvement yields per year.
Week 4: Implement that improvement (smaller portion, cheaper ingredient, or higher price). Measure the result.
💡 First month example:
Bistro with steak problem:
- Week 1: Steak food cost turns out to be 38%
- Week 2: Impact calculated: €3,328/year with 5% improvement
- Week 3: Portion from 250g to 220g (same plate, different plating)
- Week 4: New food cost: 33%. Guests don't notice.
Result: €277/month extra profit with one adjustment.
How do you determine which scenarios are a priority?
List your 5 bestsellers
Check your POS system and note your 5 most sold dishes from last month. Count the number of portions per dish.
Calculate the current food cost
For each of those 5 dishes, calculate what the ingredients cost and what the food cost percentage is. Focus on accuracy.
Calculate the annual impact
For each dish: calculate what a 2-3 percentage point food cost improvement yields on an annual basis. Use the formula: portions/year × selling price × percentage point difference.
Rank by impact
Sort the dishes by annual impact. Start with the dish that yields the most euros per year when improved.
Start with number 1
Take the dish with the biggest impact. Think of 2-3 concrete ways to lower the food cost and test the most realistic option.
✨ Pro tip
Focus on your top 3 bestsellers for the first 30 days - ignore everything else. Most operators waste weeks calculating dishes that sell 5 times per month while their biggest profit drains go unfixed.
Calculate this yourself?
In the KitchenNmbrs app you can do this in just a few clicks. 7 days free, no credit card.
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Frequently asked questions
Do I need to calculate all dishes before I start?
No, that's a waste of time. Start with your 5 bestsellers. Once you have control over those, you've solved 70-80% of your problem.
What if my bestseller already has good food cost?
Then you take number 2 from the list. It's about the combination of volume and improvement potential. Sometimes number 3 yields more than number 1.
How do I know if a scenario is realistic?
Ask yourself: can I implement this next week without major investments? If yes, it's realistic. You can do complex scenarios later.
What if I don't have a POS system that counts portions?
Estimate based on your experience. Count manually for one week which dishes you make most often. That gives you a good picture.
Do I need to account for seasons?
Only if the season is relevant now. Start with dishes you sell year-round. You can look at seasonal dishes separately.
How long should I test each scenario before moving to the next?
Give it at least 2 weeks of normal service. One week might be an outlier due to weather or events. Two weeks gives you reliable data.
Should I calculate scenarios for drinks and desserts too?
Start with main dishes first - they're your biggest cost center. Add drinks and desserts once you've mastered the mains and have extra time.
📚 Sources consulted
- EU Verordening 852/2004 — Levensmiddelenhygiëne (2004) — Official source
- EU Verordening 853/2004 — Hygiënevoorschriften voor levensmiddelen van dierlijke oorsprong (2004) — Official source
- EU Verordening 1169/2011 — Voedselinformatie aan consumenten (2011) — Official source
- NVWA — Hygiënecode voor de horeca (2024) — Official source
- NVWA — Allergenen in voedsel (2024) — Official source
- Codex Alimentarius — International Food Standards (2024) — Official source
- FSA — Safer food, better business (HACCP) (2024) — Official source
- BVL — Lebensmittelhygiene (HACCP) (2024) — Official source
- Warenwetbesluit Bereiding en behandeling van levensmiddelen (2024) — Official source
- WHO — Foodborne diseases estimates (2024) — Official source
Food Standards Agency (FSA) — https://www.food.gov.uk
The HACCP standards shown in this application are for informational purposes only. KitchenNmbrs does not guarantee that displayed values are current or complete. Always consult the FSA or your local authority for the latest regulations.
Written by
Jeffrey Smit
Founder & CEO of KitchenNmbrs
Jeffrey Smit built KitchenNmbrs from 8 years of hands-on experience as kitchen manager at 1NUL8 Group in Rotterdam. His mission: give every restaurant owner control over food cost.
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