Which menu items should absorb your rising costs first? Rising ingredient prices force tough decisions about menu pricing. You can't raise everything at once without shocking customers.
Analyze your dishes on 3 criteria
Not all dishes are equal. Some can handle price increases better than others. Evaluate each dish using these three factors:
- Popularity: How much volume do you move?
- Current margin: What's your profit per plate right now?
- Price elasticity: How sensitive are diners to cost changes?
💡 Example:
Restaurant with 5 main courses after 15% inflation on meat:
- Steak: popular, low margin (38% food cost), price insensitive
- Pasta: very popular, good margin (25% food cost), price sensitive
- Fish: moderately popular, poor margin (42% food cost), price insensitive
Conclusion: Start with steak and fish, hold off on pasta for now.
Priority 1: Dishes with poor margins
Dishes with food cost above 35% are your first candidates. These items are already eating into profits, and inflation makes them worse.
⚠️ Watch out:
A dish with 40% food cost that becomes 10% more expensive will have a food cost of 44%. Then you lose money on every sale.
Calculate the new food cost after inflation:
New food cost % = (Old ingredient costs × inflation%) / Selling price excl. VAT × 100
💡 Example:
Steak for €32.00 (€29.36 excl. VAT):
- Old ingredient costs: €11.20
- After 15% inflation: €12.88
- New food cost: €12.88 / €29.36 × 100 = 43.9%
This dish MUST go up in price.
Priority 2: Price insensitive dishes
Some dishes can absorb price increases more easily. Focus on:
- Premium dishes: Steak, fish, special menus
- Unique items: Signature dishes customers can't find elsewhere
- Low volumes: Dishes that don't sell frequently
Customers already expect premium pricing on these items. An increase of €2-4 goes less noticed.
Priority 3: Popular dishes with good margins
Your best-sellers with healthy margins (below 30% food cost) should stay put for now. These dishes:
- Draw customers in
- Still generate profit
- Are often price sensitive
Most kitchen managers discover too late that raising prices on their crowd-pleasers can backfire spectacularly. And you'll lose volume on the items that keep your doors busy.
💡 Example:
Popular pasta carbonara:
- Sells 40x per week
- Food cost: 25% (still healthy after inflation)
- Customers compare pasta prices between restaurants
Leave this at the same price for now.
Timing and communication
Don't raise everything at once. Spread changes over 2-3 months:
- Month 1: Dishes with poor margins
- Month 2: Premium/unique dishes
- Month 3: Popular dishes (only if needed)
Communicate honestly with diners. Mention ingredient quality, not inflation.
Alternative strategies
Sometimes you can avoid price increases by:
- Adjusting portions: 200g steak instead of 250g
- Replacing ingredients: Different type of fish or meat
- Optimizing recipes: Less expensive garnish
⚠️ Watch out:
Never compromise the quality of your signature dishes. Guests will notice and your reputation will suffer.
How do you determine the order? (step by step)
Calculate the new food cost of each dish
Add the inflation percentage to all ingredient costs. Divide by your current selling price excl. VAT and multiply by 100. Dishes above 35% get priority.
Rank by price sensitivity
Premium dishes, signature items and low-volume dishes are least price sensitive. Popular basic dishes (pasta, pizza) are most sensitive to price changes.
Create a timeline
Start with poor margins and price insensitive items. Wait 4-6 weeks between increases. Monitor your sales figures after each adjustment before moving on.
✨ Pro tip
Track your top 8 margin-squeezed dishes over the next 6 weeks after price adjustments. If any dish drops more than 25% in sales volume, roll back the increase immediately.
Calculate this yourself?
In the KitchenNmbrs app you can do this in just a few clicks. 7 days free, no credit card.
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Frequently asked questions
How much can I increase without losing customers?
For premium dishes usually €2-4 at a time. For popular basic dishes maximum €1-2. Always test with a small part of your menu first.
What if my competitor doesn't raise prices?
Focus on your unique dishes and quality. If your competitor doesn't raise prices during inflation, they probably have a margin problem.
Do I eventually have to raise all dishes?
Not necessarily. Dishes with healthy margins (below 30% food cost) can often keep their old price, especially if they draw customers.
How do I communicate price increases to guests?
Mention quality and care, not costs. 'Our steak from Dutch farmers' works better than 'due to rising prices'.
Is it better to reduce portions than raise prices?
Only for premium dishes where guests notice portion size less. For popular dishes this stands out more than a small price increase.
Should I raise prices on seasonal specials differently?
Yes, seasonal items have more pricing flexibility since customers expect them to change. You can test higher margins on limited-time dishes before applying increases to regular menu items.
📚 Sources consulted
- EU Verordening 852/2004 — Levensmiddelenhygiëne (2004) — Official source
- EU Verordening 853/2004 — Hygiënevoorschriften voor levensmiddelen van dierlijke oorsprong (2004) — Official source
- EU Verordening 1169/2011 — Voedselinformatie aan consumenten (2011) — Official source
- NVWA — Hygiënecode voor de horeca (2024) — Official source
- NVWA — Allergenen in voedsel (2024) — Official source
- Codex Alimentarius — International Food Standards (2024) — Official source
- FSA — Safer food, better business (HACCP) (2024) — Official source
- BVL — Lebensmittelhygiene (HACCP) (2024) — Official source
- Warenwetbesluit Bereiding en behandeling van levensmiddelen (2024) — Official source
- WHO — Foodborne diseases estimates (2024) — Official source
Food Standards Agency (FSA) — https://www.food.gov.uk
The HACCP standards shown in this application are for informational purposes only. KitchenNmbrs does not guarantee that displayed values are current or complete. Always consult the FSA or your local authority for the latest regulations.
Written by
Jeffrey Smit
Founder & CEO of KitchenNmbrs
Jeffrey Smit built KitchenNmbrs from 8 years of hands-on experience as kitchen manager at 1NUL8 Group in Rotterdam. His mission: give every restaurant owner control over food cost.
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