Historical sales data tell the story of your menu. Which dishes sell well, which don't move, and what do you really earn from them? By smartly analyzing which dishes are popular and profitable, you can strategically raise prices without losing revenue.
Collect your sales data per dish
Start by digging through your register data from the past 3-6 months. You need two figures per dish: how many times it sold and what you really earn from it.
💡 Example:
Steak with fries - past 3 months:
- Sold: 240 times
- Menu price: €28.50
- Ingredient costs: €9.20
- Food cost: 35.4% (too high)
Conclusion: Popular dish, but not enough margin
Create a popularity vs. profitability matrix
Divide your dishes into four categories based on sales volume and food cost percentage:
- Stars: Popular (top 30%) + low food cost (under 30%) → Leave alone
- Plowhorses: Popular + high food cost (above 35%) → Raise price carefully
- Puzzles: Not popular + low food cost → Promote more
- Dogs: Not popular + high food cost → Raise significantly or remove
⚠️ Heads up:
Never raise the price of your absolute bestsellers without good reason. Those are what bring customers in.
Calculate the impact of price increases
For each dish you want to raise, calculate what the effect will be on your margin. Use this formula:
New food cost % = Ingredient costs / (New price / 1.09) × 100
💡 Example:
Pasta carbonara:
- Current price: €16.50 → food cost 38%
- New price: €18.50 → food cost 34%
- Sold: 180x per month
- Extra profit: €2.00 × 180 = €360/month
Even if you sell 10% less, you still earn an extra €324
Test price increases gradually
Don't raise everything at once. Start with your 'Plowhorses' - popular dishes with poor margins. These can best handle a price increase.
- Start with 10-15% increase on dishes with food cost above 35%
- Monitor for 4-6 weeks whether sales drop
- If sales stay stable, consider further adjustment
- Then adjust other categories
Monitor the impact on total revenue
Track not just the sales of adjusted dishes, but also your total revenue and number of covers. Sometimes customers compensate by ordering other dishes.
💡 Example:
After price increase on 3 main courses:
- Main course sales: -8%
- Appetizer sales: +12%
- Total revenue: +3%
- Average check: +11%
Result: Less kitchen work, more profit
Use seasonal patterns to your advantage
Historical data also reveal seasonal patterns. Raise prices on popular seasonal dishes when demand is high, and lower them when ingredients become cheaper.
How do you analyze sales data for price adjustments?
Export register data from 3-6 months
Download sales reports per dish from your register system. You need: number sold per dish, total revenue per dish, and analysis period.
Calculate current food cost per dish
Add up all ingredient costs per dish and divide by the selling price excluding VAT. Mark dishes with food cost above 35% as candidates for price increase.
Rank dishes by popularity
Sort your dishes from most to least sold. The top 30% are your popular dishes - raise these carefully. The bottom 30% can handle bigger increases.
Calculate impact of new prices
For each dish you want to raise, calculate what the new food cost will be and how much extra profit this generates per month at current sales volumes.
Implement gradually and monitor
First raise 3-5 dishes with poor margins but good sales. Measure the effect on sales and total revenue for 4-6 weeks before proceeding further.
✨ Pro tip
Start by raising prices on side dishes and desserts - customers are less price-sensitive about those than main courses, and it gives you confidence for bigger adjustments.
Calculate this yourself?
In the KitchenNmbrs app you can do this in just a few clicks. 7 days free, no credit card.
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Frequently asked questions
How many months of sales data do I need for a good analysis?
At least 3 months, ideally 6 months. This gives you enough data to spot patterns and filter out seasonal fluctuations.
What if I don't have detailed register data per dish?
Start with your 5-10 best-selling dishes that you can track. Estimate sales volumes based on purchases of main ingredients and slowly build a database.
How much can I raise prices without losing customers?
For popular dishes: 10-15% is usually safe. For less popular dishes you can raise 20-25%. Always test gradually and monitor customer reaction.
What if my total revenue drops after price increases?
Give it 6-8 weeks to settle. Often revenue stabilizes at a lower level but with better margins. Calculate whether your total profit is still higher.
Should I look at competitors when raising prices?
Yes, but don't let it be the deciding factor. If your food cost is 40% and the competitor charges less, you have a cost problem, not a pricing problem.
📚 Sources consulted
- EU Verordening 852/2004 — Levensmiddelenhygiëne (2004) — Official source
- EU Verordening 853/2004 — Hygiënevoorschriften voor levensmiddelen van dierlijke oorsprong (2004) — Official source
- EU Verordening 1169/2011 — Voedselinformatie aan consumenten (2011) — Official source
- NVWA — Hygiënecode voor de horeca (2024) — Official source
- NVWA — Allergenen in voedsel (2024) — Official source
- Codex Alimentarius — International Food Standards (2024) — Official source
- FSA — Safer food, better business (HACCP) (2024) — Official source
- BVL — Lebensmittelhygiene (HACCP) (2024) — Official source
- Warenwetbesluit Bereiding en behandeling van levensmiddelen (2024) — Official source
- WHO — Foodborne diseases estimates (2024) — Official source
Food Standards Agency (FSA) — https://www.food.gov.uk
The HACCP standards shown in this application are for informational purposes only. KitchenNmbrs does not guarantee that displayed values are current or complete. Always consult the FSA or your local authority for the latest regulations.
Written by
Jeffrey Smit
Founder & CEO of KitchenNmbrs
Jeffrey Smit built KitchenNmbrs from 8 years of hands-on experience as kitchen manager at 1NUL8 Group in Rotterdam. His mission: give every restaurant owner control over food cost.
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