Most restaurant owners struggle to identify which profitable dishes deserve promotional investment. The popularity threshold shows exactly when a Puzzle dish (profitable but low-selling) transforms into a Star. Here's how to calculate that critical tipping point.
What is a popularity threshold?
Menu engineering splits dishes into categories based on popularity and profitability. A Puzzle earns good margins but sells poorly. The popularity threshold marks where this dish gains enough volume to become a Star.
💡 Example:
Your restaurant sells 1,000 main courses monthly:
- Average per dish: 1,000 ÷ 8 dishes = 125 portions
- Popularity threshold: 125 portions (= average)
- Your beef tenderloin (Puzzle): 80 portions per month
The beef tenderloin needs 45 extra portions monthly to become a Star.
The formula for popularity threshold
Here's the calculation:
Popularity threshold = Total main courses sold ÷ Number of main courses on menu
This shows your average sales per dish. Anything above this line counts as popular.
Calculate growth potential
For each Puzzle, determine required sales increase:
Required growth = Popularity threshold - Current sales
💡 Example calculation:
Restaurant with 6 mains, 900 portions monthly:
- Popularity threshold: 900 ÷ 6 = 150 portions
- Salmon (Puzzle): 95 portions monthly, €12 margin
- Required growth: 150 - 95 = 55 extra portions
Selling 55 extra salmon portions creates a Star worth €660 additional monthly profit.
Which Puzzles have the most potential?
From years of working in professional kitchens, I've learned that not all Puzzles respond equally to promotion. Calculate these metrics for each:
- Growth potential in euros: Required growth × Margin per portion
- Growth percentage: (Required growth ÷ Current sales) × 100
- ROI of promotion: Extra profit vs. marketing costs
⚠️ Note:
A dish requiring 500% growth proves much harder to promote than one needing 20% growth, regardless of absolute profit potential.
Account for seasonal effects
Popularity shifts with seasons. Calculate quarterly thresholds:
- Summer: Salads and fish typically surge
- Winter: Stews and hearty dishes dominate
- Holidays: Premium options get natural boosts
Some dishes naturally transition from Puzzle to Star seasonally without any promotional push.
💡 Seasonal example:
Gazpacho performance:
- Winter: 25 portions monthly (Puzzle)
- Summer: 180 portions monthly (Star)
- Popularity threshold: 150 portions
Season drives the growth automatically - no promotion required.
Tracking and adjustment
Monitor monthly progress toward Star status:
- Recalculate your popularity threshold monthly
- Measure promotional campaign effectiveness
- Pivot strategy for stagnant dishes
Tools like KitchenNmbrs automatically generate menu engineering matrices, calculating popularity thresholds and growth potential for each dish.
How do you calculate the popularity threshold? (step by step)
Gather your sales data
Count the total number of main courses sold last month. Also count how many different main courses are on your menu. Use data from your POS system or manual counting.
Calculate the average per dish
Divide the total number of portions sold by the number of main courses on your menu. This average is your popularity threshold. Dishes that sell more are popular, less are unpopular.
Identify growth potential per Puzzle
For each profitable but unpopular dish: subtract current sales from your popularity threshold. This number is the required growth to move from Puzzle to Star.
Calculate profit from growth
Multiply the required growth by the margin per portion. This shows you the extra profit potential if you successfully promote this dish to Star status.
Prioritize based on feasibility
Choose Puzzles that need less than 50% growth for promotion. These have the highest chance of actually becoming Stars without major marketing investments.
✨ Pro tip
Target Puzzles requiring exactly 25-40% growth over the next 8 weeks. These dishes hit the sweet spot between achievable promotion goals and meaningful profit increases.
Calculate this yourself?
In the KitchenNmbrs app you can do this in just a few clicks. 7 days free, no credit card.
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Frequently asked questions
Should I include side dishes and appetizers in the calculation?
No, stick to main courses only. Appetizers and sides follow different sales patterns that would distort your average.
What if I have a seasonal dish that's unpopular right now?
Calculate your popularity threshold using the appropriate seasonal data. Compare winter dishes against winter performance, not summer sales.
What percentage growth is realistic for a Puzzle dish?
Dishes needing under 30% growth respond well to promotion. Growth requirements of 50-100% prove challenging, while anything above 100% is typically unrealistic without major menu changes.
Can a dish jump directly from Dog to Star without becoming a Puzzle first?
Extremely unlikely. Dogs (unpopular and unprofitable) must achieve profitability before you invest in popularity. Fix margins first, then drive sales.
How often should I recalculate my popularity threshold?
Monthly at minimum, weekly if you're actively managing menu engineering. Your menu and sales constantly evolve, shifting your threshold accordingly.
What happens if my menu has significantly different price points?
Consider calculating separate thresholds for premium versus standard dishes. A $45 steak shouldn't compete directly with a $18 pasta for popularity metrics.
📚 Sources consulted
- EU Verordening 852/2004 — Levensmiddelenhygiëne (2004) — Official source
- EU Verordening 853/2004 — Hygiënevoorschriften voor levensmiddelen van dierlijke oorsprong (2004) — Official source
- EU Verordening 1169/2011 — Voedselinformatie aan consumenten (2011) — Official source
- NVWA — Hygiënecode voor de horeca (2024) — Official source
- NVWA — Allergenen in voedsel (2024) — Official source
- Codex Alimentarius — International Food Standards (2024) — Official source
- FSA — Safer food, better business (HACCP) (2024) — Official source
- BVL — Lebensmittelhygiene (HACCP) (2024) — Official source
- Warenwetbesluit Bereiding en behandeling van levensmiddelen (2024) — Official source
- WHO — Foodborne diseases estimates (2024) — Official source
Food Standards Agency (FSA) — https://www.food.gov.uk
The HACCP standards shown in this application are for informational purposes only. KitchenNmbrs does not guarantee that displayed values are current or complete. Always consult the FSA or your local authority for the latest regulations.
Written by
Jeffrey Smit
Founder & CEO of KitchenNmbrs
Jeffrey Smit built KitchenNmbrs from 8 years of hands-on experience as kitchen manager at 1NUL8 Group in Rotterdam. His mission: give every restaurant owner control over food cost.
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