I've seen too many restaurant owners kill promising dishes because they judged them after just 10 sales. Adding a new dish to your menu engineering matrix requires at least 30-50 sales to get meaningful popularity data. Rush this process, and you'll make costly decisions based on incomplete information.
Why a popularity threshold matters
Menu engineering only works with reliable data. A dish that sold 5 times in 2 weeks tells you nothing. Maybe it was a fluke, maybe it was positioned poorly on the menu, or maybe guests just hadn't discovered it yet.
⚠️ Watch out:
Judging a new dish too early can mean you remove a potential 'Star' because it sold poorly in the first week.
The 30-50 sales rule
Statistically speaking, you need at least 30 sales to recognize a pattern. At 50 sales, the picture becomes clearer. This applies to restaurants that do 80-150 covers per day.
- Small restaurant (30-60 covers/day): Minimum 20-30 sales
- Mid-size restaurant (80-150 covers/day): Minimum 30-50 sales
- Busy restaurant (150+ covers/day): Minimum 50-75 sales
Calculate your minimum observation period
The observation period depends on your average number of covers and how many dishes you have on the menu. From tracking this across dozens of restaurants, I've found most operators underestimate how long they need to wait.
💡 Example:
Restaurant with 100 covers/day, 6 days per week, 12 main courses on the menu:
- Total sales per week: 600 covers
- Average per dish: 50 sales/week
- For 40 sales of new dish: minimum 5-6 days
Minimum observation: 1-2 weeks
Calculate popularity percentage
Once you've got enough sales, calculate the popularity percentage using this formula:
Popularity % = (Dish sales / Total sales all dishes) × 100
💡 Example calculation:
New pasta sold 45 times in 2 weeks. Total all main courses: 600 sales.
- Popularity: (45 / 600) × 100 = 7.5%
- Average with 12 dishes: 8.3%
- Classification: Below average (possible 'Puzzle' or 'Dog')
Matrix classification after observation period
Compare the popularity with your average and combine it with profitability:
- Above average popularity + good margin: Star ⭐
- Above average popularity + poor margin: Plowhorse 🐴
- Below average popularity + good margin: Puzzle 🧩
- Below average popularity + poor margin: Dog 🐕
Seasonal dishes and special circumstances
Some dishes need a longer ramp-up period. Think of more complex dishes, seasonal specials, or dishes that require extensive explanation from staff.
⚠️ Watch out:
Dishes with many allergens or specific target groups (vegan, gluten-free) often have lower popularity, but can still be profitable for their niche.
What to do during the observation period
While you're collecting data, you can still promote and optimize the dish:
- Make sure your staff can explain the dish well
- Position it strategically on the menu
- Monitor food cost and prep time
- Ask guests for feedback
💡 Practical tip:
Use tools like KitchenNmbrs to automatically track how many of each dish you sell, so you know exactly when you reach the 30-50 sales threshold.
How do you calculate the popularity threshold? (step by step)
Determine your minimum sales
Calculate how many sales you need: small restaurant 20-30, mid-size restaurant 30-50, large restaurant 50-75 sales. This gives you a reliable basis for the matrix.
Calculate your observation period
Divide your minimum sales by your average covers per day. This gives you the number of days you need to wait before you add the dish to the matrix.
Monitor and record sales
Track daily how many times the new dish is sold. Once you reach the threshold, calculate the popularity and place the dish in the correct matrix category.
✨ Pro tip
Track new dish sales for exactly 14 days or until you hit 40 sales, whichever comes first. This gives you enough data without waiting too long to make menu decisions.
Calculate this yourself?
In the KitchenNmbrs app you can do this in just a few clicks. 7 days free, no credit card.
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Frequently asked questions
What if a new dish still performs poorly after 50 sales?
Then it's probably a 'Dog' or 'Puzzle'. Analyze whether you can lower the price (Dog to Plowhorse) or improve the dish. Sometimes it's better to remove it from the menu.
Can I lower the popularity threshold for seasonal dishes?
Yes, for dishes with a short sales period (like asparagus in season) you can get by with 20-30 sales. Just keep in mind that your conclusions will be less reliable.
How often should I recalculate popularity?
For new dishes: weekly until you reach the threshold. For existing dishes: monthly. This way you'll spot trends and seasonal effects in time.
What if a dish becomes popular after a slow start?
That can happen when guests 'discover' the dish or when your staff gets better at explaining it. Recalculate popularity after every 25-50 additional sales.
Should I use different thresholds for lunch and dinner?
Yes, if you analyze lunch and dinner separately. Lunch dishes often have different popularity patterns than dinner dishes, so treat them as separate categories.
How do I handle dishes with expensive ingredients that naturally sell less?
Premium dishes like wagyu or lobster will always have lower popularity due to price point. Focus on profit per sale rather than volume, and consider a threshold of 15-25 sales instead.
📚 Sources consulted
- EU Verordening 852/2004 — Levensmiddelenhygiëne (2004) — Official source
- EU Verordening 853/2004 — Hygiënevoorschriften voor levensmiddelen van dierlijke oorsprong (2004) — Official source
- EU Verordening 1169/2011 — Voedselinformatie aan consumenten (2011) — Official source
- NVWA — Hygiënecode voor de horeca (2024) — Official source
- NVWA — Allergenen in voedsel (2024) — Official source
- Codex Alimentarius — International Food Standards (2024) — Official source
- FSA — Safer food, better business (HACCP) (2024) — Official source
- BVL — Lebensmittelhygiene (HACCP) (2024) — Official source
- Warenwetbesluit Bereiding en behandeling van levensmiddelen (2024) — Official source
- WHO — Foodborne diseases estimates (2024) — Official source
Food Standards Agency (FSA) — https://www.food.gov.uk
The HACCP standards shown in this application are for informational purposes only. KitchenNmbrs does not guarantee that displayed values are current or complete. Always consult the FSA or your local authority for the latest regulations.
Written by
Jeffrey Smit
Founder & CEO of KitchenNmbrs
Jeffrey Smit built KitchenNmbrs from 8 years of hands-on experience as kitchen manager at 1NUL8 Group in Rotterdam. His mission: give every restaurant owner control over food cost.
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