A prix fixe menu becomes profitable through strategic dish combinations. Most restaurants fail because they include too many Plow Horses (popular but unprofitable items) without proper compensation. Smart pairing of Stars and Plow Horses delivers consistent margins.
What are Stars and Plow Horses?
Menu engineering divides dishes into four categories based on popularity and profitability:
- Stars: Popular and profitable (food cost under 30%)
- Plow Horses: Popular but not profitable (food cost above 35%)
- Puzzles: Not popular but profitable
- Dogs: Not popular and not profitable
💡 Example dishes:
In a bistro:
- Star: Pasta carbonara (popular, 28% food cost)
- Plow Horse: Entrecote (popular, 38% food cost)
- Puzzle: Duck breast (not popular, 25% food cost)
- Dog: Vegetarian lasagne (not popular, 35% food cost)
The basic calculation for prix fixe margin
For prix fixe menus, you calculate the weighted average food cost across all available dishes.
Formula:
Weighted food cost = (Food cost dish A × Choice % A) + (Food cost dish B × Choice % B) + etc.
💡 Example calculation:
Prix fixe menu €32.50 (excl. 9% VAT = €29.82) with 3 main courses:
- Pasta carbonara: 28% food cost, 50% of guests choose this
- Entrecote: 38% food cost, 35% of guests choose this
- Fish of the day: 30% food cost, 15% of guests choose this
Weighted food cost: (28% × 0.50) + (38% × 0.35) + (30% × 0.15) = 14% + 13.3% + 4.5% = 31.8%
Strategically balancing Stars and Plow Horses
Success depends on steering choice percentages. Guide more guests toward Stars, fewer toward Plow Horses.
- Position Stars prominently: First menu option with compelling descriptions
- Minimize Plow Horse appeal: Last position, shorter descriptions
- Adjust portions: Reduce expensive ingredients in Plow Horses
⚠️ Watch out:
Don't sacrifice quality guests expect. Smaller entrecote portions work fine, but they must still satisfy. Poor quality kills reviews.
The 70/30 rule for prix fixe composition
From years of working in professional kitchens, this proven strategy works: 70% Stars and Puzzles, 30% Plow Horses and Dogs in your prix fixe selection.
💡 Practical example:
Prix fixe with 5 main courses:
- 2 Stars (pasta, chicken): expected choice 60%
- 1 Puzzle (duck): expected choice 10%
- 1 Plow Horse (entrecote): expected choice 25%
- 1 Dog (vegetarian): expected choice 5%
Result: 70% choose profitable options, 30% choose less profitable options
Margin optimization through ingredient substitution
Transform Plow Horses into better performers with smart adjustments:
- Meat: 180g instead of 220g entrecote saves €2.40 per portion
- Side dishes: Cheaper vegetables as garnish
- Sauces: Use identical bases for multiple sauces
💡 Impact calculation:
Adjusting entrecote from 220g to 180g:
- Savings: 40g × €60/kg = €2.40 per portion
- At 100 prix fixe menus per week: €240 savings
- Per year: €240 × 52 = €12,480 extra margin
Monitoring and adjustment
Track monthly which dishes guests select and adjust accordingly:
- Monitor choice percentages per dish
- Recalculate weighted food cost
- Replace overly popular Plow Horses with Stars
Systems like KitchenNmbrs show menu changes' impact on total margins immediately.
How do you calculate the margin on a prix fixe menu? (step by step)
Classify all your dishes
Determine for each dish whether it's a Star, Plow Horse, Puzzle, or Dog. Calculate the food cost and look at the popularity from the past 3 months.
Estimate choice percentages
Predict what percentage of guests will choose which dish. Use data from similar menus or start with 70% Stars/Puzzles, 30% Plow Horses/Dogs.
Calculate the weighted food cost
Multiply each food cost by the choice percentage and add everything up. This is your total food cost for the prix fixe menu.
Determine your selling price
Divide your weighted ingredient costs by your desired food cost percentage (for example 30%). Don't forget to add VAT for the menu price.
Monitor and adjust
Track every month which dishes guests actually choose. Recalculate your weighted food cost and adjust the menu if needed.
✨ Pro tip
Test your Stars-Plow Horses ratio over exactly 6 weeks before making permanent changes. Track daily choice percentages to identify weekend versus weekday selection patterns.
Calculate this yourself?
In the KitchenNmbrs app you can do this in just a few clicks. 7 days free, no credit card.
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Frequently asked questions
What if guests only choose the expensive Plow Horses?
Make Stars more appealing through better descriptions and prime menu positioning. You can also modify Plow Horses with smaller portions or cheaper accompaniments.
How often should I adjust my prix fixe menu?
Review choice percentages monthly. Adjust when weighted food cost exceeds 33% or one dish becomes disproportionately popular.
Can I include multiple Plow Horses in one prix fixe menu?
Yes, but ensure no more than 30% of guests choose them collectively. Balance with additional Stars or modify Plow Horses for better profitability.
Should I calculate prix fixe margins including VAT?
Always calculate excluding VAT for food cost analysis. Menu prices include 9% VAT, but use VAT-exclusive amounts in your formulas.
How do I prevent Stars from becoming too popular?
That's actually ideal! Stars deliver popularity and profit simultaneously. If 80% choose Stars, you've created a highly profitable menu. Just ensure adequate inventory.
What's the minimum number of options needed for effective prix fixe engineering?
Three main course options minimum allows basic Stars-Plow Horses balancing. Five options provide optimal flexibility for the 70/30 rule implementation.
How do I handle seasonal ingredient cost fluctuations in prix fixe menus?
Build 3-5% buffer into your target food cost percentage. Swap seasonal Plow Horses for year-round Stars during expensive ingredient periods.
📚 Sources consulted
- EU Verordening 852/2004 — Levensmiddelenhygiëne (2004) — Official source
- EU Verordening 853/2004 — Hygiënevoorschriften voor levensmiddelen van dierlijke oorsprong (2004) — Official source
- EU Verordening 1169/2011 — Voedselinformatie aan consumenten (2011) — Official source
- NVWA — Hygiënecode voor de horeca (2024) — Official source
- NVWA — Allergenen in voedsel (2024) — Official source
- Codex Alimentarius — International Food Standards (2024) — Official source
- FSA — Safer food, better business (HACCP) (2024) — Official source
- BVL — Lebensmittelhygiene (HACCP) (2024) — Official source
- Warenwetbesluit Bereiding en behandeling van levensmiddelen (2024) — Official source
- WHO — Foodborne diseases estimates (2024) — Official source
Food Standards Agency (FSA) — https://www.food.gov.uk
The HACCP standards shown in this application are for informational purposes only. KitchenNmbrs does not guarantee that displayed values are current or complete. Always consult the FSA or your local authority for the latest regulations.
Written by
Jeffrey Smit
Founder & CEO of KitchenNmbrs
Jeffrey Smit built KitchenNmbrs from 8 years of hands-on experience as kitchen manager at 1NUL8 Group in Rotterdam. His mission: give every restaurant owner control over food cost.
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