Nearly 70% of delivery-only restaurants fail within their first 18 months due to poor financial planning. Most entrepreneurs severely underestimate platform commissions, packaging expenses, and cash flow challenges. Here's how to crunch the numbers before you commit your capital.
Gather all cost items
Delivery concepts carry unique expenses that traditional restaurants don't face. Platform commissions, specialized packaging, and extended payment cycles create a completely different cost structure.
💡 Example cost items dark kitchen:
- Kitchen rent: €2,500/month
- Staff (2 chefs): €6,000/month
- Ingredients: 30% of revenue
- Platform fees: 25% of revenue
- Packaging costs: 3% of revenue
- Energy & other: €800/month
Calculate your platform fees correctly
Third-party platforms like Deliveroo, Uber Eats, and Just Eat extract 15-30% commission from every order. Always model using the highest rate - it's the kind of thing you only learn after closing your first month at a loss.
⚠️ Watch out:
Platform fees are calculated on the total order value including delivery costs. An order of €20 with €2.50 delivery means commission on €22.50.
Include packaging costs in your food cost
Delivery packaging typically runs 2-4% of order value. That's pure cost addition - customers won't pay extra for sustainable containers or leak-proof designs.
💡 Example packaging costs:
- Main course container: €0.45
- Salad container: €0.25
- Sauce pot: €0.15
- Bag + napkins: €0.35
Total per order: €1.20
Determine your minimum order value
You'll need significantly higher average tickets than dine-in restaurants. Each order carries fixed fulfillment costs that small orders can't absorb.
Formula minimum order value:
Min. order = Fixed costs per order / (1 - Variable costs %)
💡 Example calculation:
Fixed costs per order: €3.50 (staff, rent, energy)
Variable costs: 58% (30% food + 25% platform + 3% packaging)
Minimum order: €3.50 / (1 - 0.58) = €8.33
Test your break-even scenario
Work backwards from your monthly overhead to determine daily order targets. This reveals if your concept can realistically generate enough volume.
- Total all fixed monthly expenses
- Calculate net margin per average order
- Divide overhead by per-order margin
- Convert to daily order requirements
💡 Example break-even:
- Fixed costs: €9,300/month
- Average order: €22
- Margin per order: €9.24 (42%)
- Break-even: 1,007 orders/month = 34 orders/day
Plan your working capital
Platforms typically pay out weekly, but ingredient suppliers and staff need immediate payment. Budget for 8-10 weeks of operating expenses upfront.
⚠️ Watch out:
Platforms often pay out weekly, but sometimes hold back money for complaints or refunds. Plan with extra buffer.
How do you calculate feasibility? (step by step)
Make a complete cost list
List all costs: rent, staff, ingredients, platform fees, packaging, energy. Don't forget small items like cleaning supplies or repairs.
Calculate your actual food cost including packaging
Add ingredient costs and packaging costs together. Divide by selling price excl. VAT. Keep it under 35% for healthy margin.
Test different scenarios
Calculate break-even at 25, 50, and 75 orders per day. See which scenario is realistic for your location and concept.
✨ Pro tip
Test for exactly 21 days from your current kitchen or a shared commercial space before signing any dark kitchen lease. This gives you three full weeks of real order patterns, actual packaging costs, and platform payout timing to validate your financial projections.
Calculate this yourself?
In the KitchenNmbrs app you can do this in just a few clicks. 7 days free, no credit card.
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Frequently asked questions
What platform fees should I calculate?
Model with 25-30% to be safe. Deliveroo and Uber Eats range from 15-30% based on your negotiated contract and which services you use. New operators rarely get the lowest rates.
How many orders do I need at minimum per day?
Most dark kitchens require 30-50 daily orders to break even. Your exact number depends on fixed costs and per-order margins. Calculate your specific break-even point using the formula above.
Should I factor in customer acquisition costs?
Absolutely - platforms charge extra for promoted listings and priority placement. Budget 3-5% of revenue for marketing spend beyond base commission fees. Organic visibility alone won't drive sufficient volume initially.
📚 Sources consulted
- EU Verordening 852/2004 — Levensmiddelenhygiëne (2004) — Official source
- EU Verordening 853/2004 — Hygiënevoorschriften voor levensmiddelen van dierlijke oorsprong (2004) — Official source
- EU Verordening 1169/2011 — Voedselinformatie aan consumenten (2011) — Official source
- NVWA — Hygiënecode voor de horeca (2024) — Official source
- NVWA — Allergenen in voedsel (2024) — Official source
- Codex Alimentarius — International Food Standards (2024) — Official source
- FSA — Safer food, better business (HACCP) (2024) — Official source
- BVL — Lebensmittelhygiene (HACCP) (2024) — Official source
- Warenwetbesluit Bereiding en behandeling van levensmiddelen (2024) — Official source
- WHO — Foodborne diseases estimates (2024) — Official source
Food Standards Agency (FSA) — https://www.food.gov.uk
The HACCP standards shown in this application are for informational purposes only. KitchenNmbrs does not guarantee that displayed values are current or complete. Always consult the FSA or your local authority for the latest regulations.
Written by
Jeffrey Smit
Founder & CEO of KitchenNmbrs
Jeffrey Smit built KitchenNmbrs from 8 years of hands-on experience as kitchen manager at 1NUL8 Group in Rotterdam. His mission: give every restaurant owner control over food cost.
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