Most restaurant owners blame "slow days" on bad luck, but that's completely wrong. Rain empties your terrace while local events create surprise rushes. Track weather and events against daily sales - you'll spot patterns that transform guesswork into smart predictions.
Why track weather and events?
Revenue fluctuations aren't random. There's almost always a clear cause. A rainy Thursday pulling 40 covers versus a sunny Thursday hitting 85 covers - that gap tells a story.
? Example:
Bistro De Zon tracked for 3 months:
- Sunny days: average 78 covers
- Rainy days: average 45 covers
- Netherlands football match: +25% revenue
- Market day: +15% revenue
Owner Marco now estimates orders with precision.
The simplest method: keeping a daily log
Skip complicated systems. Log three things daily:
- Weather: Sunny, rainy, cloudy, stormy
- Temperature: Cold (below 10°), mild (10-20°), warm (above 20°)
- Special events: Market day, event, holiday, vacation
Record this alongside daily revenue and cover counts. Patterns emerge within weeks.
⚠️ Note:
Always compare identical weekdays. A rainy Monday versus sunny Saturday comparison is worthless.
Track digitally on your phone
Many operators snap photos of daily reports and add voice memos:
- "Thursday March 15, rain all day, 42 covers, €1,240 revenue"
- "Friday March 16, sunny, market day, 89 covers, €2,680 revenue"
This 30-second routine builds valuable data within a month.
? Example:
Restaurant Het Pleintje discovered after 2 months:
- Rain on weekdays: -40% revenue
- Rain on weekends: -15% revenue (people come anyway)
- Temperature above 25°C: +30% terrace revenue
- Netherlands football: +50% drinks revenue
Owner Linda now orders strategically.
Recognize and use patterns
After 6-8 weeks, clear patterns surface. After managing kitchen operations for nearly a decade, I've seen how this data transforms ordering decisions. Use patterns for:
- Ordering: Reduce meat orders when rain's forecast
- Staff: Schedule extra help for major events
- Menu: Push soups and warm dishes during cold spells
- Marketing: Launch rainy day promotions to draw guests
Perfect predictions aren't the goal - better estimates are. That alone cuts hundreds in monthly waste.
? Example:
Café De Buurman now knows:
- World Cup/Euro matches: order 3x more beer
- First warm day (20°C+): terrace full, more rosé
- King's Day: 5x more snacks, 2x more staff
- Rainy weekdays: focus on regulars, smaller portions
Waste dropped from €800 to €300 monthly.
Keep an eye on local events
Stay informed about area happenings:
- Municipality website for events
- Local Facebook groups
- VVV calendar
- Sports clubs (home matches)
- Schools (parent evenings, school festivals)
Log these events. Over time you'll identify which ones fill seats and which create ghost towns.
How do you start with weather and event tracking?
Create a simple daily log
Use your phone, a notebook, or an Excel file. Note every day: weather, temperature, special events, revenue, and number of covers. That's all you need.
Collect 6-8 weeks of data
Be consistent and note every day, even when it's busy. After 6 weeks you'll have enough data to see first patterns. Always compare the same weekdays with each other.
Analyze and adjust
Look for patterns: what happens in rain, sun, events? Adjust your ordering, staff, and menu accordingly. Test one change at a time, so you can measure if it works.
✨ Pro tip
Check your local weather app every morning at 7 AM for 14 days straight, then note which forecasts actually matched your lunch rush size. You'll quickly learn which weather predictions reliably affect your covers.
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Frequently asked questions
How long before I see patterns?
Should I also track wind speed and humidity?
What if weather doesn't explain my revenue drops?
How do I predict the impact of new events?
Sources consulted
- EU Verordening 852/2004 — Levensmiddelenhygiëne (2004) — Official source
- EU Verordening 853/2004 — Hygiënevoorschriften voor levensmiddelen van dierlijke oorsprong (2004) — Official source
- EU Verordening 1169/2011 — Voedselinformatie aan consumenten (2011) — Official source
- NVWA — Hygiënecode voor de horeca (2024) — Official source
- NVWA — Allergenen in voedsel (2024) — Official source
- Codex Alimentarius — International Food Standards (2024) — Official source
- FSA — Safer food, better business (HACCP) (2024) — Official source
- BVL — Lebensmittelhygiene (HACCP) (2024) — Official source
- Warenwetbesluit Bereiding en behandeling van levensmiddelen (2024) — Official source
- WHO — Foodborne diseases estimates (2024) — Official source
Food Standards Agency (FSA) — https://www.food.gov.uk
The HACCP standards shown in this application are for informational purposes only. KitchenNmbrs does not guarantee that displayed values are current or complete. Always consult the FSA or your local authority for the latest regulations.
Written by
Jeffrey Smit
Founder & CEO of KitchenNmbrs
Jeffrey Smit built KitchenNmbrs from 8 years of hands-on experience as kitchen manager at 1NUL8 Group in Rotterdam. His mission: give every restaurant owner control over food cost.
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