Your menu determines your profit. Many restaurant owners choose dishes based on gut feeling or what they enjoy cooking. But successful operators focus on what actually generates cash flow.
Why gut feeling costs you money
You have a dish that everyone orders. Full tables, every evening. So it's doing well, right? Not necessarily. If that popular pasta carbonara has a food cost of 42%, you're losing money on every portion you sell.
⚠️ Note:
Popularity doesn't mean profitability. A dish that's ordered frequently but doesn't earn well will ultimately cost you money.
Data reveals what's really happening. Which dishes make money. Which don't. And where your opportunities lie to make more profit without losing your guests.
The 4 types of dishes on your menu
Every dish falls into one of these categories:
- Stars: Popular AND profitable (you want more of these)
- Plowhorses: Popular but NOT profitable (raise price or lower costs)
- Puzzles: Not popular but PROFITABLE (promote these)
- Dogs: Not popular and NOT profitable (remove them)
💡 Example:
Restaurant The Gourmet analyzes their top 10 dishes:
- Steak: 40 portions/week, 28% food cost = STAR
- Pasta carbonara: 60 portions/week, 42% food cost = PLOWHORSE
- Lamb rack: 8 portions/week, 25% food cost = PUZZLE
- Vegetarian lasagne: 5 portions/week, 38% food cost = DOG
Action: Make carbonara more expensive, promote lamb rack, remove lasagne from menu.
What data you need
To base your menu on data, collect these figures per dish:
- Number sold: How many portions per week/month
- Food cost percentage: Ingredient costs divided by selling price (excl. VAT)
- Gross profit per portion: Selling price minus ingredient costs
- Total profit: Gross profit per portion × number sold
You get these figures from your POS system (sales numbers) and cost calculations (food cost). This is the kind of thing you only learn after closing your first month at a loss — popularity can mask profitability problems for weeks.
💡 Example calculation:
Salmon with vegetables - €28.00 incl. VAT (€25.69 excl. VAT):
- Ingredient costs: €8.50
- Food cost: (€8.50 / €25.69) × 100 = 33.1%
- Gross profit per portion: €25.69 - €8.50 = €17.19
- Sold: 25 portions/week
- Total profit/week: €17.19 × 25 = €429.75
How to make decisions
With this data, you can make targeted choices:
For Plowhorses (popular, not profitable):
- Raise the price by €1-2
- Reduce the portion size (especially side dishes)
- Find cheaper ingredients without losing quality
- Make the preparation more efficient
For Puzzles (profitable, not popular):
- Place it higher on the menu
- Have your staff recommend it
- Make it a daily special
- Promote it on social media
⚠️ Note:
Never remove more than 2-3 dishes at once from your menu. Guests need time to adjust to changes.
Tools that help
Manual calculations take a lot of time. These tools make it easier:
- POS system: Provides sales figures per dish
- Excel/Google Sheets: For calculations and overviews
- Food cost software: Automatically calculates food cost and profitability per dish
With specialized systems, you immediately see which dishes are Stars, Plowhorses, Puzzles, or Dogs. Without manual calculations.
💡 Real-world example:
Brasserie The Anchor raised the price of their popular burger (Plowhorse) from €16.50 to €17.50. Result:
- Sales dropped from 45 to 42 portions/week
- Food cost dropped from 38% to 33%
- Extra profit: €126 per week = €6,552 per year
Start with your top 10
First analyze your 10 best-selling dishes. This delivers 80% of your results with 20% of your time.
Check for each dish:
- How many portions do you sell per week?
- What's the exact food cost?
- How much profit does it generate per portion?
- Which category does it fall into?
Then you'll know where your opportunities are to earn more without working harder.
How to build a data-driven menu? (step by step)
Collect sales figures per dish
Get from your POS system how many portions you sell per dish per week. Focus on your top 15 best-selling dishes. This gives you the foundation for all further analysis.
Calculate the exact food cost per dish
Add up all ingredient costs: main ingredient, garnish, sauce, oil, everything that goes on the plate. Divide this by your selling price excl. VAT and multiply by 100 for the percentage.
Place each dish in the right category
Determine whether each dish is a Star (popular + profitable), Plowhorse (popular + not profitable), Puzzle (not popular + profitable), or Dog (not popular + not profitable).
Make targeted adjustments
Raise prices of Plowhorses, promote Puzzles, consider removing Dogs. Test one adjustment at a time and measure the effect after 2-4 weeks.
Monitor and adjust monthly
Check your sales figures and food cost percentages every month. Ingredient prices change regularly and dish popularity shifts by season. Stay on top of the reality.
✨ Pro tip
Pull your POS data for the last 8 weeks and identify your 5 highest-volume dishes. Calculate their exact food costs using current supplier prices — this 90-minute exercise typically reveals €200-500 in monthly profit opportunities.
Calculate this yourself?
In the KitchenNmbrs app you can do this in just a few clicks. 7 days free, no credit card.
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Frequently asked questions
What if my most popular dish isn't profitable?
Gradually raise the price (€0.50 - €1.00 at a time) or reduce the portion size. Monitor whether sales drop. Often you can do a 5-10% price increase without losing many customers.
What food cost percentage is acceptable?
For restaurants, 28-35% is standard. Above 35% it becomes difficult to make a profit. Below 25% might mean you're too expensive or serving portions that are too small.
How do I calculate food cost for dishes with shared ingredients?
Track ingredient usage per recipe precisely, including garnishes and sauces. Weigh portions during prep for 2 weeks to get accurate averages. Small ingredients like herbs and spices can add 3-5% to your actual costs if you're not measuring them properly.
📚 Sources consulted
- EU Verordening 852/2004 — Levensmiddelenhygiëne (2004) — Official source
- EU Verordening 853/2004 — Hygiënevoorschriften voor levensmiddelen van dierlijke oorsprong (2004) — Official source
- EU Verordening 1169/2011 — Voedselinformatie aan consumenten (2011) — Official source
- NVWA — Hygiënecode voor de horeca (2024) — Official source
- NVWA — Allergenen in voedsel (2024) — Official source
- Codex Alimentarius — International Food Standards (2024) — Official source
- FSA — Safer food, better business (HACCP) (2024) — Official source
- BVL — Lebensmittelhygiene (HACCP) (2024) — Official source
- Warenwetbesluit Bereiding en behandeling van levensmiddelen (2024) — Official source
- WHO — Foodborne diseases estimates (2024) — Official source
Food Standards Agency (FSA) — https://www.food.gov.uk
The HACCP standards shown in this application are for informational purposes only. KitchenNmbrs does not guarantee that displayed values are current or complete. Always consult the FSA or your local authority for the latest regulations.
Written by
Jeffrey Smit
Founder & CEO of KitchenNmbrs
Jeffrey Smit built KitchenNmbrs from 8 years of hands-on experience as kitchen manager at 1NUL8 Group in Rotterdam. His mission: give every restaurant owner control over food cost.
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