Promotions and specials can make or break your profit. Many entrepreneurs gamble with discounts without knowing what they'll get in return. Data-driven decisions separate successful restaurants from those bleeding money on failed promotions.
Why gambling with promotions is dangerous
A promotion seems simple: offer a discount to attract more guests. But without numbers, you don't know if you're earning more or actually losing money.
⚠️ Watch out:
A 20% discount promotion means you need to sell 25% more to earn the same amount. Many entrepreneurs don't realize this.
Measure your current performance
Before launching any promotion, you need baseline data. Collect these numbers from the past 4 weeks:
- Average revenue per day
- Number of guests per day
- Average check value
- Your 5 best-selling dishes
- Food cost percentage of those dishes
💡 Example:
Restaurant De Smaak normally runs:
- Revenue: €1,200 per day
- Guests: 60 per day
- Check value: €20 average
- Best-seller: pasta carbonara (30% food cost)
Calculate your promotion's break-even point
With every discount, you need to sell more to earn the same. The formula is:
Extra sales needed = Discount % / (100% - Discount %)
💡 Example:
With 20% discount:
- Extra sales needed: 20% / (100% - 20%) = 25%
- Normally 60 guests → now need 75 guests
- Normally €1,200 revenue → now need €1,500 revenue (after discount)
Question: can we attract 15 extra guests?
Test small before you go big
Don't start a promotion for your entire menu right away. Test one dish or one day:
- Choose your best-selling dish
- Offer a discount for 1 day
- Measure how much extra you sell
- Compare with the same day last week
💡 Example:
Test: pasta carbonara 15% discount on Tuesday
- Normal Tuesday: 12 pastas sold
- Promotion Tuesday: 18 pastas sold
- Increase: 50% more sold
- Break-even was: 18% more (15% / 85%)
Result: promotion works! 50% > 18%
Measure the total impact on your business
A promotion on one dish affects your entire operation. I've seen this mistake cost the average restaurant EUR 200-400 per month - owners focus only on the discounted item while other dishes suffer. Also measure:
- Total revenue that day (not just the promotion dish)
- Total number of guests
- Sales of other dishes
- Average check value
⚠️ Watch out:
Sometimes promotions do attract more guests, but they order fewer other dishes. Your total revenue can drop despite more guests.
Analyze your results honestly
After your test, calculate what the promotion actually delivered:
- Total extra revenue (after discount)
- Extra costs (more purchasing, staff)
- Net result (extra revenue minus extra costs)
💡 Example:
Result of pasta promotion:
- Extra revenue: €180 (after 15% discount)
- Extra purchasing: €54 (30% food cost)
- Extra staff: €30 (busier)
- Net extra: €96
Conclusion: €96 profit on 1 day. Repeat promotion!
Build a promotion database
Keep track of which promotions work and which don't:
- Date and day of the week
- Type of promotion and discount percentage
- Weather and special circumstances
- Results in numbers
After a few months you'll see patterns. Some promotions only work on quiet days. Others work better on weekends. Use this knowledge for future decisions.
How do you test a promotion? (step by step)
Collect your baseline numbers
Measure 4 weeks of your normal performance: revenue per day, number of guests, check value, and sales of your top dishes. These numbers are your comparison point.
Calculate your break-even point
Use the formula: discount % divided by (100% - discount %). This tells you what percentage more you need to sell to earn the same amount.
Test small and measure everything
Start with one dish on one day. Measure not just the sales of that dish, but also your total revenue, number of guests, and sales of other items.
✨ Pro tip
Track promotion performance for 72 hours after launch, not just during the discount period. Many failed promotions show their true impact when regular customers return expecting the same deal.
Calculate this yourself?
In the KitchenNmbrs app you can do this in just a few clicks. 7 days free, no credit card.
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Frequently asked questions
How much discount can I give maximum without making a loss?
This depends on your margin per dish. With 30% food cost you have 70% margin. Theoretically you can give up to 70% discount, but then you earn nothing. Stay under 25% discount for safety.
Do promotions work better on quiet or busy days?
Usually better on quiet days. On busy days you're often full anyway, so more guests mainly means more stress. On quiet days you can use extra capacity.
How often can I run promotions without guests expecting them as normal?
Maximum 1-2 times per month for the same dish. Too often and guests will wait for discounts. Alternate between different dishes and days.
Should I copy promotions from competitors?
No, never copy blindly. Your cost structure and target audience are different. Always test small first to see what works for your business before starting big promotions.
📚 Sources consulted
- EU Verordening 852/2004 — Levensmiddelenhygiëne (2004) — Official source
- EU Verordening 853/2004 — Hygiënevoorschriften voor levensmiddelen van dierlijke oorsprong (2004) — Official source
- EU Verordening 1169/2011 — Voedselinformatie aan consumenten (2011) — Official source
- NVWA — Hygiënecode voor de horeca (2024) — Official source
- NVWA — Allergenen in voedsel (2024) — Official source
- Codex Alimentarius — International Food Standards (2024) — Official source
- FSA — Safer food, better business (HACCP) (2024) — Official source
- BVL — Lebensmittelhygiene (HACCP) (2024) — Official source
- Warenwetbesluit Bereiding en behandeling van levensmiddelen (2024) — Official source
- WHO — Foodborne diseases estimates (2024) — Official source
Food Standards Agency (FSA) — https://www.food.gov.uk
The HACCP standards shown in this application are for informational purposes only. KitchenNmbrs does not guarantee that displayed values are current or complete. Always consult the FSA or your local authority for the latest regulations.
Written by
Jeffrey Smit
Founder & CEO of KitchenNmbrs
Jeffrey Smit built KitchenNmbrs from 8 years of hands-on experience as kitchen manager at 1NUL8 Group in Rotterdam. His mission: give every restaurant owner control over food cost.
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