Most restaurant owners think menu decisions come from gut feeling. Reality check: your kitchen numbers reveal exactly which dishes make money and which ones drain it. Smart operators use this data to build menus that actually work.
Which numbers matter most?
Not all numbers deserve equal attention. Focus on these three:
- Food cost percentage: How much of your selling price goes to ingredients
- Popularity: How often you sell a dish per week
- Absolute profit per dish: How many euros are left after ingredient costs
This combination reveals everything: which dishes are popular and profitable, and which ones create problems.
💡 Example:
Steak on your menu for €32.00 (incl. 9% VAT):
- Selling price excl. VAT: €29.36
- Ingredient costs: €11.50
- Food cost: 39.2%
- Sales: 8x per week
This dish drains your profits. Too high food cost for too little sales.
Categorize your dishes
Divide your menu into four groups:
- Stars: Popular + low food cost (under 32%)
- Puzzles: Not popular + low food cost
- Workhorses: Popular + high food cost (above 35%)
- Dogs: Not popular + high food cost
This categorization works across the industry. Each category demands a different approach.
💡 Example menu analysis:
Restaurant with 12 dishes:
- 3 Stars: Keep these prominent on the menu
- 2 Puzzles: Try to make them more popular
- 4 Workhorses: Raise the price or adjust ingredients
- 3 Dogs: Remove from the menu
Result: From 12 to 9 dishes, focus on winners.
Making your menu smaller: what to remove?
A smaller menu creates focus, reduces inventory, and boosts revenue per dish. Start eliminating these dishes:
- Dogs first: Not popular + high food cost = eliminate them
- Workhorses with low sales: Popular but insufficient to justify high food cost
- Dishes with expensive ingredients you rarely use: Truffle, langoustines, specialty cheeses
But here's something you only learn after closing your first month at a loss: removing the wrong dish can upset regular customers more than adding a new one ever will.
⚠️ Heads up:
Never remove your signature dish, even if the numbers look terrible. Try adjusting the price or reducing ingredient costs first.
Making your menu larger: what to add?
More dishes mean more choice, but also more complexity. Only add if you're confident it'll work:
- Variations on stars: Same ingredients, different preparation
- Seasonal dishes: Temporary, with affordable seasonal ingredients
- Promote puzzles: Low food cost dishes you already have, but give them more attention
💡 Example expansion:
Your pasta carbonara (star) performs well:
- Food cost: 28%
- Sales: 25x per week
- Add: Pasta amatriciana (same base, different sauce)
- Expected food cost: 26%
Low risk, you already know the ingredients, your kitchen can handle it.
Adjusting prices based on numbers
Sometimes you don't need to remove dishes—just adjust the price:
- Workhorses: Raise the price until food cost drops below 35%
- Puzzles: Lower the price to boost popularity
- Stars: Carefully raise the price, monitor if popularity remains stable
Use this formula: Minimum selling price = Ingredient costs / (Desired food cost / 100)
Looking at your menu as a whole
Individual dishes matter, but the big picture counts more:
- Average food cost: All dishes combined, weighted by sales
- Inventory complexity: How many different ingredients do you need?
- Kitchen workload: Can your cooks execute all dishes well?
Tools like KitchenNmbrs help track these metrics across your entire operation.
⚠️ Heads up:
A smaller menu with only stars can become boring. Keep some variety, but make sure each dish earns its place.
How do you analyze your menu with numbers? (step by step)
Gather data for each dish
Note for each dish: ingredient costs, selling price excl. VAT, and number sold per week. These three numbers are the foundation for all decisions.
Calculate food cost and absolute profit
Food cost = (ingredient costs / selling price excl. VAT) × 100. Absolute profit = selling price excl. VAT - ingredient costs. Both numbers matter.
Categorize your dishes
Popular = sold more than 10x per week. Low food cost = under 32%. Create four groups: Stars, Puzzles, Workhorses, Dogs.
Make decisions per category
Remove dogs from the menu. Make workhorses more expensive. Promote puzzles. Keep stars and possibly expand with variations.
Test and measure results
Implement changes gradually. After 4 weeks, measure if your total food cost drops and revenue per dish increases. Adjust if needed.
✨ Pro tip
Track your 6 best-selling dishes over the next 30 days. If their food costs average under 32%, you've solved most of your menu problems.
Calculate this yourself?
In the KitchenNmbrs app you can do this in just a few clicks. 7 days free, no credit card.
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Frequently asked questions
Can I remove a popular dish if the food cost is too high?
Try raising the price or adjusting ingredients first. If it really doesn't work and it's not your signature dish, you can remove it. Explain to your guests why.
How often should I do my menu analysis?
Do a thorough analysis every 3 months. Check the numbers of your best-selling dishes monthly. Recalculate immediately if there are major supplier price changes.
What if all dishes have high food costs?
Then your selling prices are too low or your ingredient costs are too high. Check your purchasing, negotiate with suppliers, and gradually raise your prices.
Should I include seasonal dishes in my analysis?
Yes, but account for the shorter sales period. A fall dish that runs for 8 weeks needs to make its money in that time, not over the whole year.
📚 Sources consulted
- EU Verordening 852/2004 — Levensmiddelenhygiëne (2004) — Official source
- EU Verordening 853/2004 — Hygiënevoorschriften voor levensmiddelen van dierlijke oorsprong (2004) — Official source
- EU Verordening 1169/2011 — Voedselinformatie aan consumenten (2011) — Official source
- NVWA — Hygiënecode voor de horeca (2024) — Official source
- NVWA — Allergenen in voedsel (2024) — Official source
- Codex Alimentarius — International Food Standards (2024) — Official source
- FSA — Safer food, better business (HACCP) (2024) — Official source
- BVL — Lebensmittelhygiene (HACCP) (2024) — Official source
- Warenwetbesluit Bereiding en behandeling van levensmiddelen (2024) — Official source
- WHO — Foodborne diseases estimates (2024) — Official source
Food Standards Agency (FSA) — https://www.food.gov.uk
The HACCP standards shown in this application are for informational purposes only. KitchenNmbrs does not guarantee that displayed values are current or complete. Always consult the FSA or your local authority for the latest regulations.
Written by
Jeffrey Smit
Founder & CEO of KitchenNmbrs
Jeffrey Smit built KitchenNmbrs from 8 years of hands-on experience as kitchen manager at 1NUL8 Group in Rotterdam. His mission: give every restaurant owner control over food cost.
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