A change to your beverage menu can significantly affect your monthly revenue. New prices, different brands, or an adjusted assortment change your average bill per guest. With the right calculation, you forecast the financial impact before you make the change.
Calculate your current beverage revenue per guest
Before you change anything, you need to know where you stand now. Pull your POS data from the last 3 months.
- Total beverage revenue (excl. VAT)
- Number of guests in the same period
- Average beverage spending per guest
💡 Example current situation:
Restaurant with 2,400 guests over 3 months:
- Beverage revenue: €18,000 (excl. 21% VAT)
- Number of guests: 2,400
- Average per guest: €18,000 ÷ 2,400 = €7.50
Analyze your proposed changes
Create an overview of what you want to change and estimate the impact per category:
- Price changes: How much up or down in percentage?
- New products: Expected popularity and price
- Discontinued products: Current revenue share
- Brand switch: Price difference between old and new
💡 Example changes:
- Beer: from €3.50 to €4.00 (+14%)
- Wine per glass: from €5.50 to €6.00 (+9%)
- New cocktails: €9.00 (expectation: 15% of guests order)
- Current mixed drinks discontinued (now €4.50, 20% of guests)
Calculate the impact per product category
For each change, calculate the expected revenue change. Use your current sales data as a baseline.
Price increase formula:
New revenue = (Current revenue × new price) ÷ old price
New products formula:
Extra revenue = Expected sales × new price
⚠️ Note:
Price increases can cause demand to drop. For safety, calculate with 5-10% less volume for increases above 10%.
Calculate through to monthly revenue
Add all changes together and calculate through to a monthly figure:
- Sum of all revenue changes per product category
- Divide by 3 (from quarterly figure to monthly figure)
- Add to current monthly revenue
💡 Example final calculation:
Impact of all changes over 3 months:
- Beer increase: +€840 (€6,000 × 1.14 - €6,000)
- Wine increase: +€270 (€3,000 × 1.09 - €3,000)
- New cocktails: +€810 (2,400 guests × 15% × €9)
- Discontinued mixed drinks: -€1,080 (2,400 × 20% × €4.50)
Net impact per month: (€840 + €270 + €810 - €1,080) ÷ 3 = +€280
Check your pour cost
Don't forget to verify that your profit margin per drink is correct after the changes. For alcoholic beverages, a pour cost of 18-25% is standard.
Pour cost formula:
(Cost per serving ÷ Selling price excl. 21% VAT) × 100
A system like KitchenNmbrs helps track pour cost automatically when prices change, so you can see profitability per drink right away.
How do you calculate the impact of beverage menu changes?
Gather your current beverage figures
Pull POS data from the last 3 months: total beverage revenue excl. VAT, number of guests, and average beverage spending per guest. This is your starting point for all calculations.
Create an overview of all changes
List all proposed changes: price adjustments, new products, discontinued items, and brand switches. For each change, estimate the expected popularity and impact.
Calculate the revenue impact per change
Use the formula (current revenue × new price) ÷ old price for price changes. For new products: expected sales × new price. Add everything up and divide by 3 for monthly figure.
✨ Pro tip
After 6 weeks, check if your forecast is accurate by comparing your actual figures. This way you get to know your guests better and your future estimates become more precise.
Calculate this yourself?
In the KitchenNmbrs app you can do this in just a few clicks. 7 days free, no credit card.
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Frequently asked questions
Should I include VAT in my impact calculation?
Always calculate excl. VAT for your cost price and margin calculations. For revenue forecasts you can calculate incl. VAT, but make this clear in your calculation.
How do I forecast demand drop from price increases?
For increases above 10%, calculate with 5-10% less volume for safety. For smaller increases (up to 10%), demand typically remains stable in hospitality.
What if I don't have detailed sales data?
Estimate based on your POS totals and observation. Divide your beverage revenue across your most popular categories and use those as a starting point.
How often should I evaluate my beverage menu?
Check your prices and profit margins at least every 6 months. If there are major cost changes from suppliers, you can adjust in between.
What is a good pour cost for different drink types?
Beer and wine: 20-25%, spirits: 18-22%, cocktails: 15-20%. Cocktails can be lower because you deliver more added value through preparation.
📚 Sources consulted
- EU Verordening 852/2004 — Levensmiddelenhygiëne (2004) — Official source
- EU Verordening 853/2004 — Hygiënevoorschriften voor levensmiddelen van dierlijke oorsprong (2004) — Official source
- EU Verordening 1169/2011 — Voedselinformatie aan consumenten (2011) — Official source
- NVWA — Hygiënecode voor de horeca (2024) — Official source
- NVWA — Allergenen in voedsel (2024) — Official source
- Codex Alimentarius — International Food Standards (2024) — Official source
- FSA — Safer food, better business (HACCP) (2024) — Official source
- BVL — Lebensmittelhygiene (HACCP) (2024) — Official source
- Warenwetbesluit Bereiding en behandeling van levensmiddelen (2024) — Official source
- WHO — Foodborne diseases estimates (2024) — Official source
Food Standards Agency (FSA) — https://www.food.gov.uk
The HACCP standards shown in this application are for informational purposes only. KitchenNmbrs does not guarantee that displayed values are current or complete. Always consult the FSA or your local authority for the latest regulations.
Written by
Jeffrey Smit
Founder & CEO of KitchenNmbrs
Jeffrey Smit built KitchenNmbrs from 8 years of hands-on experience as kitchen manager at 1NUL8 Group in Rotterdam. His mission: give every restaurant owner control over food cost.
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