Ever wonder why your profits swing wildly throughout the year? What costs €3 per kilo in summer can become €8 in winter. Many small businesses underestimate this seasonal impact, losing money without realizing it.
Why seasonality affects your margins
Seasonal products create extreme price swings. Tomatoes cost €2 per kilo in August, €6 in February. Asparagus is affordable in May, unaffordable in October. Without adjusting menu prices, you'll make nothing on these dishes during expensive months.
💡 Example:
Your tomato soup in August vs. February:
- August: tomatoes €2/kg → cost price €3.50 per portion
- February: tomatoes €6/kg → cost price €7.50 per portion
- Menu price stays €12.50 (excl. VAT €11.47)
August food cost: 30.5% | February food cost: 65.4%
In February, you're losing money on every bowl sold.
Calculate the impact on an annual basis
To see what seasonality actually costs you, compare the cheapest and most expensive month of a product. Then calculate how many portions of that dish you sell annually.
💡 Impact calculation:
Formula: (Most expensive cost price - Cheapest cost price) × Number of portions in expensive period
- Cost price difference: €7.50 - €3.50 = €4.00 per portion
- Winter sales: 20 portions/week × 16 weeks = 320 portions
- Extra costs: €4.00 × 320 = €1,280 per year
This €1,280 vanishes from your margin if you don't act. With multiple seasonal dishes, this quickly adds up to thousands annually.
Which products fluctuate the most
Not all products have the same seasonal impact. Focus your analysis on products with major price swings:
- Vegetables: tomatoes, cucumber, bell peppers, zucchini
- Fruit: strawberries, raspberries, mango, avocado
- Fish: certain types have seasons (e.g., North Sea fish)
- Meat: usually stable, except game and lamb
⚠️ Note:
Greenhouse products (tomatoes, cucumber) fluctuate more than field vegetables. Energy prices affect greenhouse products even more in winter.
From analyzing actual purchasing data across different restaurant types, greenhouse vegetables show the most dramatic seasonal swings - often 200-300% price increases during winter months.
Three strategies to manage seasonal impact
Strategy 1: Dynamic menu
Adjust your menu seasonally. Only include seasonal products during affordable periods. Replace them with alternatives during expensive months.
Strategy 2: Flexible pricing
Put seasonal dishes on your menu with varying prices. "Market price" or "seasonal price" gives you flexibility to adjust.
💡 Example flexible pricing:
- Asparagus soup: May-June €8.50 | September-April €12.50
- Strawberry dessert: June-July €6.50 | rest of year €9.50
- Tomato risotto: August-September €16.50 | winter €19.50
Strategy 3: Alternative sourcing
Find suppliers with more stable prices. Frozen products have less seasonal impact, but different taste. Canned goods are more stable but less fresh.
Set up practical monitoring
Track your purchase prices monthly for seasonal products. Create a simple overview:
- Product name
- Price this month
- Price last month
- Difference in %
- Impact on dish cost price
If prices rise more than 20%: consider menu adjustments or price increases.
⚠️ Note:
Update your cost prices in your system every month. Old purchase prices give a distorted picture of your actual food cost per dish.
A food cost calculator like KitchenNmbrs helps you track cost prices and immediately see what price changes do to your food cost per dish.
How do you calculate seasonal impact? (step by step)
Identify your seasonal products
Make a list of all products you use that you know have price fluctuations. Think of tomatoes, cucumber, strawberries, asparagus. Check your supplier lists from the past 12 months.
Calculate cost price per season
Work out what each dish costs in the cheapest and most expensive month. Use the formula: add all ingredients and divide by number of portions. Compare the food cost percentages.
Calculate impact on annual basis
Multiply the cost price difference per portion by the number of portions you sell in the expensive period. This gives you the total impact on your margin per year.
✨ Pro tip
Track your 5 most volatile seasonal ingredients weekly during their expensive periods (October-March for most vegetables). Price jumps over 25% in a single week signal it's time to temporarily remove dishes or raise prices immediately.
Calculate this yourself?
In the KitchenNmbrs app you can do this in just a few clicks. 7 days free, no credit card.
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Frequently asked questions
Do I need to adjust my menu every month for seasonal prices?
Not necessarily every month, but watch for cost price increases over 20%. Many restaurants adjust their menu 2-4 times per year, aligned with the seasons.
Can I replace seasonal products with frozen or canned alternatives?
Yes, that gives you more stable prices. But the taste and texture differ. Test first whether your guests accept the difference before switching completely.
How do I predict which products will become expensive?
Look at patterns from previous years. Tomatoes are always pricier in winter, strawberries in winter and spring. Talk to your supplier about expected price developments.
What if I have a fixed menu and can't adjust?
Then calculate with the average annual price of seasonal products. Add up the 12 monthly prices and divide by 12. This prevents surprises but means higher prices in cheap months.
📚 Sources consulted
- EU Verordening 852/2004 — Levensmiddelenhygiëne (2004) — Official source
- EU Verordening 853/2004 — Hygiënevoorschriften voor levensmiddelen van dierlijke oorsprong (2004) — Official source
- EU Verordening 1169/2011 — Voedselinformatie aan consumenten (2011) — Official source
- NVWA — Hygiënecode voor de horeca (2024) — Official source
- NVWA — Allergenen in voedsel (2024) — Official source
- Codex Alimentarius — International Food Standards (2024) — Official source
- FSA — Safer food, better business (HACCP) (2024) — Official source
- BVL — Lebensmittelhygiene (HACCP) (2024) — Official source
- Warenwetbesluit Bereiding en behandeling van levensmiddelen (2024) — Official source
- WHO — Foodborne diseases estimates (2024) — Official source
Food Standards Agency (FSA) — https://www.food.gov.uk
The HACCP standards shown in this application are for informational purposes only. KitchenNmbrs does not guarantee that displayed values are current or complete. Always consult the FSA or your local authority for the latest regulations.
Written by
Jeffrey Smit
Founder & CEO of KitchenNmbrs
Jeffrey Smit built KitchenNmbrs from 8 years of hands-on experience as kitchen manager at 1NUL8 Group in Rotterdam. His mission: give every restaurant owner control over food cost.
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