Your suppliers raise their prices by 10%, but you keep your menu the same. The result: your food cost shoots up from 30% to 33%, and you lose thousands of euros per year without noticing. Most restaurant owners only discover what happened months later.
Why price increases cause so much damage
Suppliers bump up their prices 2-4 times annually. Often tiny amounts: €0.50 per kilo here, €1.20 there. Looks harmless, but the impact on your food cost is massive.
💡 Example:
Your steak now costs €18/kg instead of €16/kg. You sell 50 steaks per week at 250 grams each.
- Extra cost per steak: €0.50
- Extra cost per week: €25
- Extra cost per year: €1,300
Just for this one dish.
The domino effect on your food cost
A 10% price increase from your supplier doesn't mean your food cost rises by 10%. The effect is much larger because your food cost is a percentage of your selling price.
💡 Example calculation:
Pasta carbonara, selling price €18.50 incl. VAT (€16.97 excl. VAT):
- Before price increase: Ingredients €5.10 → Food cost 30.1%
- After price increase (+10%): Ingredients €5.61 → Food cost 33.1%
Your food cost jumps from 30% to 33% - an increase of 3 percentage points!
Why you don't notice it
The problem creeps in because price increases come gradually:
- January: Meat becomes 8% more expensive
- March: Fish rises by 12%
- June: Dairy becomes 6% more expensive
- September: Vegetables rise 15% due to poor harvest
Each moment seems harmless, but together they lift your food cost from 30% to 35% or higher. This is a pattern we see repeatedly in restaurant financials - owners track revenue closely but miss the gradual cost creep.
⚠️ Watch out:
With annual revenue of €400,000, a 5 percentage point higher food cost means €20,000 less profit. Enough to put your business in trouble.
The trap of 'small amounts'
Many entrepreneurs think: "€0.30 per kilo extra, that's not so bad." But they forget how many kilos they buy per year.
💡 Example: €0.30 extra per kilo of onions
- You use 20 kg of onions per week
- Extra cost per week: €6
- Extra cost per year: €312
And that's just the onions. Add up all your ingredients and you're quickly looking at thousands of euros in extra costs.
How you can prevent this
The solution is simple: track your food cost per dish monthly. Especially for your top sellers. If your food cost goes above 35%, it's time to act:
- Raise your selling price (usually the smartest move)
- Find cheaper alternatives (different supplier, different product)
- Adjust your recipe (smaller portions, cheaper ingredients)
- Remove the dish (if it becomes unprofitable)
Many restaurant owners use systems to automatically spot food cost spikes without doing the math themselves.
How do you prevent price increases from eating into your profit?
Check your top 5 dishes monthly
Calculate the food cost of your 5 best-selling dishes. These make up 80% of your revenue, so that's where the biggest risk lies.
Set an alarm at 35% food cost
As soon as a dish goes above 35% food cost, you need to take action. This is your red line for profitability.
Adjust your prices immediately
Raise your selling price by the same percentage as your supplier's price increase. Don't wait until the end of the year.
✨ Pro tip
Set a phone reminder for the 1st of every month to check your food costs within 48 hours of any supplier price increase. This prevents the 3-month delay that typically costs restaurants €5,000+ in lost margins.
Calculate this yourself?
In the KitchenNmbrs app you can do this in just a few clicks. 7 days free, no credit card.
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Frequently asked questions
How often do suppliers raise their prices?
On average 2-4 times per year, often in January, March, June, and September. Meat and fish fluctuate the most, vegetables are seasonal.
Can't I just adjust my menu once a year?
That's risky. Over 12 months your ingredients can become 15-25% more expensive. Then you lose money on every dish all year long.
What if my guests leave because of higher prices?
Small price increases (5-10%) customers barely notice. Better to ask €1 more than lose €5 per dish because your food cost is too high.
How do I know if my supplier is offering fair prices?
Compare 2-3 suppliers for your main ingredients. Don't just look at price, but also quality and reliability of delivery.
Do I need to check all dishes or just the popular ones?
Start with your top 10 sellers. These make up 80-90% of your revenue. After that you can check the rest.
What is an acceptable food cost for different types of dishes?
Meat: 28-35%, fish: 30-38%, pasta: 20-28%, salads: 25-32%. These are guidelines, not absolute rules.
Should I negotiate with suppliers or just switch when prices rise?
Try negotiating first, especially if you're a loyal customer. Ask about volume discounts or payment terms. But don't hesitate to switch if they won't budge on key ingredients.
⚠️ EU Regulation 1169/2011 — Allergen Information — https://eur-lex.europa.eu/eli/reg/2011/1169/oj
The allergen information on this page is based on EU Regulation 1169/2011. Recipes and ingredients may vary by supplier. Always verify current allergen information with your supplier and communicate this correctly to your guests. KitchenNmbrs is not liable for allergic reactions.
In the UK, the FSA enforces allergen regulations under the Food Information Regulations 2014.
📚 Sources consulted
- EU Verordening 852/2004 — Levensmiddelenhygiëne (2004) — Official source
- EU Verordening 853/2004 — Hygiënevoorschriften voor levensmiddelen van dierlijke oorsprong (2004) — Official source
- EU Verordening 1169/2011 — Voedselinformatie aan consumenten (2011) — Official source
- NVWA — Hygiënecode voor de horeca (2024) — Official source
- NVWA — Allergenen in voedsel (2024) — Official source
- Codex Alimentarius — International Food Standards (2024) — Official source
- FSA — Safer food, better business (HACCP) (2024) — Official source
- BVL — Lebensmittelhygiene (HACCP) (2024) — Official source
- Warenwetbesluit Bereiding en behandeling van levensmiddelen (2024) — Official source
- WHO — Foodborne diseases estimates (2024) — Official source
Food Standards Agency (FSA) — https://www.food.gov.uk
The HACCP standards shown in this application are for informational purposes only. KitchenNmbrs does not guarantee that displayed values are current or complete. Always consult the FSA or your local authority for the latest regulations.
Written by
Jeffrey Smit
Founder & CEO of KitchenNmbrs
Jeffrey Smit built KitchenNmbrs from 8 years of hands-on experience as kitchen manager at 1NUL8 Group in Rotterdam. His mission: give every restaurant owner control over food cost.
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