Seasonal changes are the perfect moment to take a critical look at your menu. Many dishes that performed well in winter suddenly get fewer orders in summer. And vice versa. This is your chance to eliminate money-losers and make room for seasonal winners.
Analyze your current menu on 3 criteria
For each dish on your current menu, you check three things: popularity, profitability, and seasonal sensitivity. These three together determine whether a dish stays or goes.
💡 Example: Winter to spring analysis
A bistro has 12 main courses. When transitioning winter→spring, they review:
- Beef stew: popular (25 sales/week) but food cost 38%
- Salmon salad: less popular (8 sales/week) but food cost 28%
- Spare ribs: very popular (40 sales/week) and food cost 31%
Decision: Remove stew (too expensive), keep salmon (good margin), keep ribs (bestseller).
Calculate the real profit contribution per dish
Popularity alone isn't enough. A dish that sells 30 times a week but loses €2 per portion costs you €3,120 per year. Calculate for each dish:
- Sale price excl. VAT (menu price / 1.09)
- Ingredient costs (including garnish, sauces, bread)
- Gross profit per portion (sale price - ingredient costs)
- Number of sales per week (check your POS system)
💡 Example: Profit contribution calculation
Pasta carbonara:
- Menu price: €18.50 incl. VAT = €16.97 excl. VAT
- Ingredient costs: €5.20
- Gross profit: €16.97 - €5.20 = €11.77 per portion
- Sales: 22 times per week
Profit contribution: €11.77 × 22 = €259 per week = €13,468 per year
Identify seasonal trends
Compare sales figures from the same period last year. Which dishes declined structurally after the seasonal change? Those are candidates for removal. Pay special attention to:
- Warm, heavy dishes when transitioning to summer
- Light salads when transitioning to winter
- Seasonal ingredients that become expensive (asparagus in October)
- Comfort food that doesn't fit certain months
⚠️ Heads up:
Look at trends over at least 2 years. A bad season could be coincidence, but if a dish underperforms 2 years in a row during the same period, it's structural.
The 4-quadrant rule for decisions
Divide your dishes into four categories based on popularity and profitability:
- Stars: Popular + profitable → Definitely keep
- Workhorses: Popular + moderate profit → Optimize cost or raise price
- Puzzles: Unpopular + profitable → Promote or remove seasonally
- Losers: Unpopular + unprofitable → Remove immediately
💡 Example: Quadrant analysis
Restaurant with 10 main courses:
- Stars (3): Steak, salmon, risotto → Keep
- Workhorses (2): Pasta, burger → Lower food cost
- Puzzles (2): Duck, vegetarian → Promote seasonally
- Losers (3): Stew, soup, casserole → Remove
Result: From 10 to 7 dishes, focus on winners.
Make room for seasonal renewal
A menu with too many choices confuses guests and makes your purchasing complex. By removing losers, you make room for new seasonal dishes that better fit the upcoming weather and available ingredients.
Guideline: Maximum 6-8 main courses for an average restaurant. With more than 10 dishes, you lose focus and your inventory becomes too broad.
Test new dishes as 'specials'
Before permanently adding new dishes to the menu, test them first as daily specials. This way you see how guests react without overhauling your entire menu. Measure after 2-3 weeks:
- How many times sold each time it was a special
- Guest reactions and compliments
- Actual food cost (often different from calculated)
- How easy it is to prepare during busy times
How do you decide which dishes stay? (step by step)
Gather sales and cost data for all dishes
Pull from your POS system how many times each dish sold over the past 3 months. At the same time, calculate the exact ingredient costs per portion, including garnish and sauces.
Calculate profit contribution per dish per week
Subtract ingredient costs from sale price excl. VAT for gross profit per portion. Multiply by average sales per week. This gives you the real profit contribution.
Divide dishes into 4 categories
Create a cross-table: popular/unpopular versus profitable/unprofitable. Dishes that are unpopular and unprofitable come off the menu immediately.
Check seasonal trends from last year
Compare sales figures from the same transition period last year. Dishes that declined structurally after seasonal change are candidates for removal.
Test replacements as specials before making permanent changes
Offer new seasonal dishes as daily specials for 2-3 weeks first. Measure sales, reactions, and actual cost before permanently adding them to the menu.
✨ Pro tip
Check which 3 dishes generate the most money per week (not per portion!). Those are your cash cows and should never come off the menu, regardless of season.
Calculate this yourself?
In the KitchenNmbrs app you can do this in just a few clicks. 7 days free, no credit card.
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Frequently asked questions
How many dishes should I remove during a seasonal change?
Guideline: maximum 30% of your menu. If you have 10 main courses, remove at most 3. Too many changes at once confuses regular guests and makes your purchasing too complex.
What if an unprofitable dish is a favorite of regular guests?
Try first to lower the cost by using cheaper ingredients or smaller portions. If that doesn't work, raise the price by €2-3. Better a disappointed guest than losing money every time.
How long should I wait before permanently judging a new dish?
At least 4 weeks after adding to the regular menu. The first 2 weeks are often atypical because guests are curious. Weeks 3-4 give the real picture.
Should I announce the seasonal change to guests?
Yes, but positively. Not 'dishes are disappearing' but 'new seasonal menu with fresh ingredients'. Guests appreciate transparency about seasonal cooking.
What if I don't have historical sales data?
Start tracking now for next season. For this time: observe 2 weeks which dishes are ordered least and check their food cost. Start cleaning up there.
How do I prevent having too many leftover ingredients from removed dishes?
Plan your menu change 2 weeks ahead. Stop ordering specific ingredients and use up inventory. Leftovers can often be used in daily specials or staff meals.
⚠️ EU Regulation 1169/2011 — Allergen Information — https://eur-lex.europa.eu/eli/reg/2011/1169/oj
The allergen information on this page is based on EU Regulation 1169/2011. Recipes and ingredients may vary by supplier. Always verify current allergen information with your supplier and communicate this correctly to your guests. KitchenNmbrs is not liable for allergic reactions.
In the UK, the FSA enforces allergen regulations under the Food Information Regulations 2014.
📚 Sources consulted
- EU Verordening 852/2004 — Levensmiddelenhygiëne (2004) — Official source
- EU Verordening 853/2004 — Hygiënevoorschriften voor levensmiddelen van dierlijke oorsprong (2004) — Official source
- EU Verordening 1169/2011 — Voedselinformatie aan consumenten (2011) — Official source
- NVWA — Hygiënecode voor de horeca (2024) — Official source
- NVWA — Allergenen in voedsel (2024) — Official source
- Codex Alimentarius — International Food Standards (2024) — Official source
- FSA — Safer food, better business (HACCP) (2024) — Official source
- BVL — Lebensmittelhygiene (HACCP) (2024) — Official source
- Warenwetbesluit Bereiding en behandeling van levensmiddelen (2024) — Official source
- WHO — Foodborne diseases estimates (2024) — Official source
Food Standards Agency (FSA) — https://www.food.gov.uk
The HACCP standards shown in this application are for informational purposes only. KitchenNmbrs does not guarantee that displayed values are current or complete. Always consult the FSA or your local authority for the latest regulations.
Written by
Jeffrey Smit
Founder & CEO of KitchenNmbrs
Jeffrey Smit built KitchenNmbrs from 8 years of hands-on experience as kitchen manager at 1NUL8 Group in Rotterdam. His mission: give every restaurant owner control over food cost.
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