Seasonal dishes can turn from profit makers into loss leaders once ingredients become more expensive or demand drops. Many restaurant owners keep dishes on the menu too long and unknowingly lose money. In this article, you'll learn exactly when to stop serving a seasonal dish to prevent waste.
Why timing is crucial for seasonal dishes
An asparagus dish that costs €8.50 to make in April can cost €14.20 in June. While your menu price stays the same. The difference? Your food cost shoots up from 28% to 47%. And that's while customers have less appetite for asparagus in summer.
⚠️ Note:
Many entrepreneurs only look at popularity. But a dish that's still being ordered can meanwhile be running at a loss due to rising ingredient costs.
The three signals that you should stop
There are three moments when you should evaluate a seasonal dish:
- Food cost rises above 35% - You're earning too little per plate
- Sales drop below 10 portions per week - Ingredients spoil before you use them
- Supplier warns of price increases - They often know before you do what's coming
💡 Example:
Your asparagus dish in week 20 (May):
- Asparagus: €12/kg (was €6/kg in April)
- Other ingredients: €3.50
- Total per portion: €8.50
- Menu price: €24.50 excl. VAT
Food cost: (€8.50 / €24.50) × 100 = 34.7%
Calculate the break-even point of your dish
For each seasonal dish you can calculate in advance at what purchase price you should stop. This prevents surprises halfway through the season.
Break-even formula:
Maximum ingredient costs = Menu price excl. VAT × 0.35
💡 Example calculation:
Asparagus dish for €29.50 incl. VAT:
- Menu price excl. VAT: €29.50 / 1.09 = €27.06
- Max ingredient costs at 35% food cost: €27.06 × 0.35 = €9.47
- Other ingredients cost €3.50
- Max for main ingredient: €9.47 - €3.50 = €5.97
Stop as soon as your main ingredient costs more than €5.97 per portion.
The hidden costs of selling too long
The problem isn't just the higher purchase price. There are more costs you often overlook:
- More spoilage - Expensive ingredients you don't sell
- Lower quality - Customers notice the season is over
- Negative reviews - "Asparagus was tough and expensive"
- Loss of trust - Guests doubt your seasonal sense
Alternative strategies
Instead of stopping abruptly, you can also:
- Raise the price - If the dish remains popular
- Make it a special - Limited availability, higher price
- Replace with a variant - Same preparation method, different main ingredient
- Save for next season - Note when you should start and stop
💡 Example price increase:
Your asparagus dish becomes more expensive, but remains popular:
- Old price: €29.50
- New ingredient costs: €10.50
- Desired food cost: 32%
- New price excl. VAT: €10.50 / 0.32 = €32.81
- New menu price: €32.81 × 1.09 = €35.76
Price increase of €6.26 to maintain the same margin.
Track your seasonal dishes with a system
Most entrepreneurs estimate this, but it often goes wrong. A system like KitchenNmbrs helps you to:
- Update ingredient prices per supplier
- Automatically calculate your food cost
- Set alarms at certain food cost percentages
- Keep history of previous seasons
That way you know exactly when to stop, without manually calculating every week.
How do you determine the right time to stop? (step by step)
Calculate your current food cost per dish
Add up all ingredient costs and divide by your menu price excl. VAT. Multiply by 100 for the percentage. Check this weekly during the season.
Set your break-even point
Determine at what food cost you want to stop (usually 35%). Calculate what maximum ingredient costs this means. Note this amount and check it with every purchase.
Monitor sales figures and quality
Keep track of how many portions you sell per week. If this drops below 10 and your food cost rises, it's time to stop. Also pay attention to customer feedback about quality.
✨ Pro tip
Create a 'stop-loss' card for each seasonal dish with the break-even point. Hang it in the kitchen so your chef also knows when ingredients become too expensive.
Calculate this yourself?
In the KitchenNmbrs app you can do this in just a few clicks. 7 days free, no credit card.
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Frequently asked questions
What if my dish is still popular but the food cost becomes too high?
Then you can raise the price or offer the dish as a 'special' with limited availability. Explain to guests that it's about seasonal quality.
How often should I check my ingredient prices during the season?
At least weekly, especially for fresh products like vegetables and fish. Suppliers can adjust prices quickly based on availability.
Can't I just estimate when I should stop?
Estimating often goes wrong because you don't notice the gradual increase. A dish can run at a loss for months before you realize it.
What do I do with ingredients I still have left?
Use them in staff meals, make a daily special at cost price, or process them into another dish. Throwing away is always more expensive.
When should I start planning for next season?
Start 2 months before the season. Contact suppliers for price indications and plan your menu adjustments. Note what you've learned this year.
⚠️ EU Regulation 1169/2011 — Allergen Information — https://eur-lex.europa.eu/eli/reg/2011/1169/oj
The allergen information on this page is based on EU Regulation 1169/2011. Recipes and ingredients may vary by supplier. Always verify current allergen information with your supplier and communicate this correctly to your guests. KitchenNmbrs is not liable for allergic reactions.
In the UK, the FSA enforces allergen regulations under the Food Information Regulations 2014.
📚 Sources consulted
- EU Verordening 852/2004 — Levensmiddelenhygiëne (2004) — Official source
- EU Verordening 853/2004 — Hygiënevoorschriften voor levensmiddelen van dierlijke oorsprong (2004) — Official source
- EU Verordening 1169/2011 — Voedselinformatie aan consumenten (2011) — Official source
- NVWA — Hygiënecode voor de horeca (2024) — Official source
- NVWA — Allergenen in voedsel (2024) — Official source
- Codex Alimentarius — International Food Standards (2024) — Official source
- FSA — Safer food, better business (HACCP) (2024) — Official source
- BVL — Lebensmittelhygiene (HACCP) (2024) — Official source
- Warenwetbesluit Bereiding en behandeling van levensmiddelen (2024) — Official source
- WHO — Foodborne diseases estimates (2024) — Official source
Food Standards Agency (FSA) — https://www.food.gov.uk
The HACCP standards shown in this application are for informational purposes only. KitchenNmbrs does not guarantee that displayed values are current or complete. Always consult the FSA or your local authority for the latest regulations.
Written by
Jeffrey Smit
Founder & CEO of KitchenNmbrs
Jeffrey Smit built KitchenNmbrs from 8 years of hands-on experience as kitchen manager at 1NUL8 Group in Rotterdam. His mission: give every restaurant owner control over food cost.
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