Winter dishes are often heavier and more expensive than summer dishes. More meat, richer sauces and pricier seasonal ingredients can significantly increase your food cost. In this article, you'll learn step-by-step how to calculate exactly what those heavier winter dishes cost you per guest.
Why winter dishes are more expensive
In winter, guests eat differently. They want warmth, comfort and satisfaction. That means:
- More meat per portion (250g steak instead of 180g summer salad)
- Richer sauces with cream, butter and wine
- Pricier seasonal ingredients (asparagus, mushrooms)
- More sides (potato gratin instead of simple salad)
💡 Example:
Summer dish: Grilled chicken with salad (€6.50 ingredients)
Winter dish: Beef tenderloin with truffle sauce (€12.80 ingredients)
Difference: €6.30 per guest
Calculating the difference per season
To measure the impact, compare the average ingredient costs per guest between seasons.
Formula:
Difference per guest = (Average ingredient costs winter - Average ingredient costs summer)
💡 Example calculation:
You're running 5 main courses in winter:
- Beef tenderloin: €12.80 (30% of sales)
- Duck breast: €9.40 (25% of sales)
- Game stew: €8.20 (20% of sales)
- Salmon fillet: €7.60 (15% of sales)
- Risotto: €5.90 (10% of sales)
Weighted average: (12.80×0.30) + (9.40×0.25) + (8.20×0.20) + (7.60×0.15) + (5.90×0.10) = €9.48 per guest
Impact on your food cost percentage
Heavier dishes often mean higher food cost, unless you adjust your prices.
⚠️ Watch out:
If your ingredient costs rise by €3 per guest, but you keep your selling prices the same, your food cost increases by roughly 8-10 percentage points. That can be the difference between profit and loss.
Many restaurants deliberately accept a slightly higher food cost in winter (32-38% instead of 28-32%) because guests are willing to pay more for comfort food.
Seasonal price adjustments
Most restaurants adjust their prices twice a year: spring and fall. This compensates for pricier ingredients.
💡 Example price adjustment:
Beef tenderloin ingredients: €12.80
Desired food cost: 30%
Minimum selling price excl. VAT: €12.80 ÷ 0.30 = €42.67
Menu price: €42.67 × 1.09 = €46.50
Monitoring throughout the season
Check your average ingredient costs per guest weekly. This way you'll immediately see if your winter menu is becoming too expensive.
With a system like KitchenNmbrs you automatically see your weighted average food cost per day, without having to manually calculate with sales figures.
How do you calculate the impact of winter dishes on your food cost?
Calculate ingredient costs per winter dish
Add up all ingredients for each main course: meat, vegetables, sauces, sides, oil and butter. Don't forget anything that goes on the plate.
Determine the sales mix per dish
Look at your cash register data from last winter. What percentage of your guests choose which dish? You need this for the weighted average.
Calculate weighted average ingredient costs
Multiply each ingredient cost by the sales percentage and add everything up. This gives you the average cost per guest in winter.
Compare with summer dishes
Do the same calculation for your summer menu. The difference between winter and summer shows you the seasonal effect on your food cost per guest.
Calculate impact on annual basis
Multiply the difference per guest by your number of winter guests (October-March). This shows you what heavier winter dishes cost you per year.
✨ Pro tip
Check your top 3 best-selling winter dishes for food cost every 2 weeks. If one dish exceeds 38%, adjust the portion size or raise the price.
Calculate this yourself?
In the KitchenNmbrs app you can do this in just a few clicks. 7 days free, no credit card.
Was this article helpful?
Frequently asked questions
How much higher can my food cost be in winter?
Many restaurants accept 3-5 percentage points higher in winter. If you normally have 30% food cost, 33-35% in winter is acceptable, as long as your revenue per guest is also higher.
Do I need to adjust my prices every month for seasonal ingredients?
No, that confuses guests. Most restaurants adjust twice a year: April (summer menu) and October (winter menu). Only adjust in between for extreme price increases.
How do I prevent winter dishes from becoming too expensive?
Mix expensive and affordable dishes on your winter menu. Alongside beef tenderloin, also offer pastas and risottos. This keeps your average ingredient cost per guest manageable.
Which ingredients increase the most in price during winter?
Fresh vegetables (tomatoes, cucumbers), certain fish (tuna, sea bream) and seasonal products like asparagus. Meat and cheese usually remain more stable in price.
How do I calculate the impact on my total profit?
Multiply the difference in food cost per guest by your number of winter guests. If you spend €2 more per guest and you have 5,000 guests in winter, that costs you an extra €10,000.
📚 Sources consulted
- EU Verordening 852/2004 — Levensmiddelenhygiëne (2004) — Official source
- EU Verordening 853/2004 — Hygiënevoorschriften voor levensmiddelen van dierlijke oorsprong (2004) — Official source
- EU Verordening 1169/2011 — Voedselinformatie aan consumenten (2011) — Official source
- NVWA — Hygiënecode voor de horeca (2024) — Official source
- NVWA — Allergenen in voedsel (2024) — Official source
- Codex Alimentarius — International Food Standards (2024) — Official source
- FSA — Safer food, better business (HACCP) (2024) — Official source
- BVL — Lebensmittelhygiene (HACCP) (2024) — Official source
- Warenwetbesluit Bereiding en behandeling van levensmiddelen (2024) — Official source
- WHO — Foodborne diseases estimates (2024) — Official source
Food Standards Agency (FSA) — https://www.food.gov.uk
The HACCP standards shown in this application are for informational purposes only. KitchenNmbrs does not guarantee that displayed values are current or complete. Always consult the FSA or your local authority for the latest regulations.
Written by
Jeffrey Smit
Founder & CEO of KitchenNmbrs
Jeffrey Smit built KitchenNmbrs from 8 years of hands-on experience as kitchen manager at 1NUL8 Group in Rotterdam. His mission: give every restaurant owner control over food cost.
Purchase smarter with real-time insights
Seasonal prices fluctuate — so do your recipe costs. KitchenNmbrs automatically recalculates your margins when purchase prices change. Never get surprised again. Start free.
Start free trial →