You calculate the revenue potential of a new dish by looking at similar items on your menu. Many entrepreneurs guess, but with the right data you avoid disappointments. You use existing sales figures, price level and seasonal patterns to make a realistic estimate.
Gather data from similar dishes
Start with your current menu and look at dishes that resemble what you want to add. These could be:
- Same main ingredient (for example other fish dishes if you're adding fish)
- Similar price level (dishes within €2-3 of your new price)
- Same category (appetizer, main course, dessert)
- Same preparation method (grilled, braised, raw preparation)
💡 Example:
You want to add a grilled dorade for €24.50. Look at:
- Grilled sea bass (€23.00): 12 portions per week
- Pan-fried salmon (€26.00): 8 portions per week
- Dover sole (€28.00): 6 portions per week
Average: (12+8+6) ÷ 3 = 8.7 portions per week
Calculate the expected number of portions
Add up the weekly sales of your 3-5 similar dishes and divide by the number of dishes. This gives you an average that's more realistic than guessing.
Pay attention to seasonal patterns. Fish sells better in summer, game dishes in autumn. Adjust your estimate for the season in which you launch.
⚠️ Watch out:
A new dish often performs 20-30% lower than the average in the first month. People need time to discover it.
Calculate what this generates per week
Multiply your expected number of portions by the selling price excl. VAT. This gives you the weekly revenue potential.
💡 Calculation:
Grilled dorade example:
- Expected sales: 8.7 portions per week
- Selling price: €24.50 incl. VAT = €22.48 excl. VAT
- Weekly revenue: 8.7 × €22.48 = €195.58
Per month: €195.58 × 4.3 = €841 extra revenue
Check your food cost and profitability
Revenue alone says nothing. Also calculate your ingredient costs and check that food cost stays below 35%. Otherwise the new dish will eat into your profit.
Also factor in the impact on your kitchen. If the dish requires a lot of extra prep time, it could slow down other dishes.
Test with a limited period
Start with the dish as a 'special' for 2-3 weeks. Measure how much you actually sell and compare it with your estimate. This way you get to know your guests better.
💡 Pro approach:
Many restaurants test new dishes first as a weekend special:
- Weekend 1-2: Measure baseline sales
- Weekend 3-4: Actively promote, measure response
- Week 5: Decide whether it goes on the permanent menu
Use KitchenNmbrs for accurate tracking
With a system like KitchenNmbrs you can see your food cost per new dish directly and compare actual sales with your estimate. This way you learn to estimate what works in your business better and better.
How do you calculate revenue potential? (step by step)
Select 3-5 similar dishes
Choose dishes with the same main ingredient, price level or preparation method. Note their weekly sales from the last 4-6 weeks.
Calculate the average number of portions
Add up the weekly sales of your similar dishes and divide by the number of dishes. Subtract 20-25% for the introduction period.
Calculate the weekly revenue potential
Multiply your expected portions by the selling price excl. VAT. Multiply by 4.3 for monthly revenue.
Check food cost and profitability
Calculate your ingredient costs and check that food cost stays below 35%. Also factor in extra prep time as a cost item.
Test with a limited period
Start as a weekend special or monthly special. Measure for 2-3 weeks and compare with your estimate before you add it permanently to the menu.
✨ Pro tip
Check not only the revenue but also the impact on your kitchen. A dish that requires a lot of extra prep time can slow down other dishes and reduce your overall efficiency.
Calculate this yourself?
In the KitchenNmbrs app you can do this in just a few clicks. 7 days free, no credit card.
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Frequently asked questions
What if I don't have similar dishes on my menu?
Then look at dishes in the same price segment, regardless of ingredient. A €25 dish often sells similarly, whether it's fish, meat or vegetarian.
How much lower is the sales of a new dish?
On average 20-30% lower than similar dishes in the first month. Guests need time to discover and try new items.
Should I include seasonal patterns in my calculation?
Yes, definitely for fish (better in summer), game (better in autumn/winter) and salads (better in warm months). Adjust your estimate for the season of introduction.
What if my estimate doesn't match reality?
That's normal and educational. Note the difference and use this experience for your next new dish. This way you become increasingly accurate.
How long should I test a new dish?
At least 3-4 weeks for a fair picture. Week 1-2 are often lower (unfamiliarity), week 3-4 give a more realistic picture of structural sales.
📚 Sources consulted
- EU Verordening 852/2004 — Levensmiddelenhygiëne (2004) — Official source
- EU Verordening 853/2004 — Hygiënevoorschriften voor levensmiddelen van dierlijke oorsprong (2004) — Official source
- EU Verordening 1169/2011 — Voedselinformatie aan consumenten (2011) — Official source
- NVWA — Hygiënecode voor de horeca (2024) — Official source
- NVWA — Allergenen in voedsel (2024) — Official source
- Codex Alimentarius — International Food Standards (2024) — Official source
- FSA — Safer food, better business (HACCP) (2024) — Official source
- BVL — Lebensmittelhygiene (HACCP) (2024) — Official source
- Warenwetbesluit Bereiding en behandeling van levensmiddelen (2024) — Official source
- WHO — Foodborne diseases estimates (2024) — Official source
Food Standards Agency (FSA) — https://www.food.gov.uk
The HACCP standards shown in this application are for informational purposes only. KitchenNmbrs does not guarantee that displayed values are current or complete. Always consult the FSA or your local authority for the latest regulations.
Written by
Jeffrey Smit
Founder & CEO of KitchenNmbrs
Jeffrey Smit built KitchenNmbrs from 8 years of hands-on experience as kitchen manager at 1NUL8 Group in Rotterdam. His mission: give every restaurant owner control over food cost.
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