Most restaurant owners fly blind when making pricing decisions, gambling with their margins every time suppliers change costs. Running scenarios in your kitchen system gives you complete control over your numbers. You'll immediately see what happens if ingredient prices rise or if you adjust your menu price.
Why scenarios matter so much
Every day brings decisions that impact your bottom line. Your beef supplier just announced a 15% price hike. Your competitor across the street dropped their lunch prices. After managing kitchen operations for nearly a decade, I've seen too many owners make these calls based on hunches rather than hard data.
💡 Example:
Your steak currently costs €8.50 in ingredients at a selling price of €32.00.
- Current food cost: 29.0% (€8.50 / €29.36 excl. VAT)
- After 15% beef price increase: €9.75 ingredients
- New food cost: 33.2%
Conclusion: You need to raise your menu price to €35.00 to stay at 30% food cost.
What scenarios reveal
A solid system lets you test different situations without any real-world risk:
- Supplier price increases: What does 10% more expensive meat do to your margin?
- Menu price adjustments: How much can you raise prices without losing customers?
- Recipe modifications: What if you substitute cheaper ingredients?
- Portion adjustments: Does reducing steak portions by 20 grams actually save money?
- Seasonal variations: How much more expensive does your salad become when tomatoes come from greenhouses?
⚠️ Note:
Scenarios show predictions, not certainties. Real outcomes can differ due to unforeseen factors.
Beyond Excel and guesswork
Too many restaurant owners rely on mental math or basic spreadsheets. But you can't see all the moving pieces that way.
💡 Example Excel vs. system:
In Excel you have to manually:
- Adjust all recipes
- Recalculate VAT (9% on food)
- Recalculate food cost
- Calculate new selling prices
In a system like tools like KitchenNmbrs, this happens automatically when you adjust one ingredient price.
Control builds confidence
Real confidence comes from knowing your numbers inside and out. No more guessing whether a decision will sink your margins.
- During supplier negotiations: You know exactly how much price increase you can absorb
- Menu updates: You instantly see which dishes actually make money
- Competitive pressure: You can calculate exactly how low you can go with prices
- Seasonal planning: You anticipate ingredient cost fluctuations
💡 Real-world example:
A bistro owner uses scenarios to decide on his winter menu:
- Summer vegetables become 40% more expensive in winter
- Game dishes are actually cheaper
- By running scenarios, he chooses seasonal dishes
- Result: food cost stays stable at 31% instead of rising to 37%
Making scenarios work for you
Modern kitchen systems make scenario planning straightforward. You adjust one ingredient price and watch the ripple effects across your entire menu. Test a new selling price and your new margins appear instantly.
This transforms how you make decisions. Numbers replace gut feelings. And that shift directly improves your restaurant's financial health.
How do you run effective scenarios? (step by step)
Choose the scenario you want to test
Start with one concrete question: what if beef becomes 15% more expensive? Or: what if I raise my pasta prices by €2? Focus on one change at a time for clear results.
Adjust the variable in your system
Change the ingredient price or selling price in your system. A good system immediately shows how this impacts all your dishes that contain this ingredient.
Analyze the impact on your entire menu
Don't just look at one dish, but your entire menu. Maybe your average food cost rises from 30% to 33%. Then you know you need to take action.
✨ Pro tip
Run a 'disaster scenario' every 3 months: what happens if your most expensive ingredient jumps 25% overnight? Having this number ready gives you unshakeable confidence during supplier negotiations.
Calculate this yourself?
In the KitchenNmbrs app you can do this in just a few clicks. 7 days free, no credit card.
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Frequently asked questions
How often should I run scenarios?
Run scenarios whenever something changes: new supplier prices, seasonal shifts, or menu updates. Monthly scenario checks work well as a routine practice.
Can I also run scenarios for labor costs?
Labor costs usually aren't included in costing systems - you'll find those in your P&L. Focus scenarios on ingredient costs and selling prices since they create the biggest impact.
What if a scenario shows terrible results?
You've just saved yourself from a costly mistake. Now you can explore alternatives: different suppliers, ingredient substitutions, or adjusted selling prices.
Are scenarios reliable enough for major decisions?
Scenarios provide solid guidance, but reality can vary. Use them as decision-making tools, not absolute predictions. Test major changes on a small scale first.
Can I run scenarios without a special system?
Excel works, but it's time-consuming and error-prone. A dedicated system calculates everything automatically, saving hours and reducing mistakes.
What's the most important scenario to test regularly?
Test your top 5 menu items against a 20% ingredient price increase. These dishes drive most of your revenue, so understanding their vulnerability protects your entire operation.
📚 Sources consulted
- EU Verordening 852/2004 — Levensmiddelenhygiëne (2004) — Official source
- EU Verordening 853/2004 — Hygiënevoorschriften voor levensmiddelen van dierlijke oorsprong (2004) — Official source
- EU Verordening 1169/2011 — Voedselinformatie aan consumenten (2011) — Official source
- NVWA — Hygiënecode voor de horeca (2024) — Official source
- NVWA — Allergenen in voedsel (2024) — Official source
- Codex Alimentarius — International Food Standards (2024) — Official source
- FSA — Safer food, better business (HACCP) (2024) — Official source
- BVL — Lebensmittelhygiene (HACCP) (2024) — Official source
- Warenwetbesluit Bereiding en behandeling van levensmiddelen (2024) — Official source
- WHO — Foodborne diseases estimates (2024) — Official source
Food Standards Agency (FSA) — https://www.food.gov.uk
The HACCP standards shown in this application are for informational purposes only. KitchenNmbrs does not guarantee that displayed values are current or complete. Always consult the FSA or your local authority for the latest regulations.
Written by
Jeffrey Smit
Founder & CEO of KitchenNmbrs
Jeffrey Smit built KitchenNmbrs from 8 years of hands-on experience as kitchen manager at 1NUL8 Group in Rotterdam. His mission: give every restaurant owner control over food cost.
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