Weekly food cost data is gold for menu planning. Many restaurant owners plan their menu by gut feeling, but data from recent weeks shows which dishes actually make profit. By systematically analyzing your food costs, you can build a menu for the next quarter that makes both your guests and your bank account happy.
Gather your weekly food cost data
Start by collecting data from the past 8-12 weeks. You need three numbers per dish:
- Sales volume per week - how many portions of each dish
- Food cost per portion - what the ingredients actually cost
- Selling price excl. VAT - what you earn per portion
💡 Example:
Steak over the past 8 weeks:
- Average 45 portions per week
- Food cost: €11.20 per portion
- Selling price: €28.44 excl. VAT (€31.00 incl.)
- Food cost: 39.4% - too high!
Calculate popularity and profitability
Create an overview of all your dishes in four categories. This is called menu engineering:
- Stars: Popular AND profitable (food cost under 32%)
- Plowhorses: Popular but not profitable (food cost above 35%)
- Puzzles: Not popular but profitable
- Dogs: Not popular AND not profitable
⚠️ Note:
Popular means: in your top 40% best-selling dishes. Profitable means: food cost under 32% for fine dining, under 28% for casual.
Identify price changes from suppliers
Check which ingredients have become more expensive. Many suppliers quietly raise their prices, especially on:
- Meat and fish (seasonal fluctuations)
- Fresh vegetables (depending on harvest)
- Dairy and eggs (feed costs)
- Oils and fats (world market prices)
💡 Example price increase:
Beef rose from €18/kg to €22/kg (+22%):
- Old food cost steak: €9.00
- New food cost steak: €11.20
- Food cost rose from 31.6% to 39.4%
Action: Raise selling price or reduce portion size
Plan your new menu composition
Use your data to make strategic choices for the next quarter:
- Keep Stars: These dishes are perfect, keep them prominent on the menu
- Adjust Plowhorses: Raise the price or reduce the portion to become profitable
- Promote Puzzles: Make them more visible on the menu or train staff to recommend them
- Remove Dogs: Replace with new dishes with better margins
Calculate the impact of menu changes
For each change, calculate what the financial effect will be. A simple formula:
Extra profit per year = Difference in margin × Expected sales × 52 weeks
💡 Example calculation:
Steak price increase from €31 to €35:
- Extra margin: €3.67 excl. VAT (€35/1.09 - €31/1.09)
- Expected sales: 40 per week (was 45, 10% decline due to higher price)
- Extra profit: €3.67 × 40 × 52 = €7,635 per year
Test new dishes with low food cost
Develop 2-3 new dishes that fit the season and have low food cost. Good options for low food cost:
- Pasta dishes (food cost often 20-25%)
- Vegetarian options (vegetables cheaper than meat)
- Seasonal vegetables (cheap when in season)
- Braised dishes (cheaper cuts of meat)
⚠️ Note:
Test new dishes first as specials before adding them permanently to the menu. This way you see if guests order them without being forced to keep them for months.
How do you plan your menu with weekly data? (step by step)
Gather 8 weeks of food cost data
Note per dish: number sold per week, food cost per portion and selling price excl. VAT. Calculate the average food cost percentage over this period.
Categorize all dishes
Divide your menu into four groups: Stars (popular + profitable), Plowhorses (popular + not profitable), Puzzles (not popular + profitable) and Dogs (not popular + not profitable).
Make adjustments per category
Keep Stars, make Plowhorses more expensive or reduce portion size, promote Puzzles more, replace Dogs with new dishes with better margins.
Calculate financial impact
Calculate per change what it yields: difference in margin × expected sales × 52 weeks. This way you see which adjustments yield the most.
Test new dishes as specials
Develop 2-3 new dishes with low food cost and test them first as daily specials. Only add the popular ones to the fixed menu.
✨ Pro tip
Check your top 5 best-selling dishes monthly for food cost. If those are good, you have 80% of your profitability under control.
Calculate this yourself?
In the KitchenNmbrs app you can do this in just a few clicks. 7 days free, no credit card.
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Frequently asked questions
How often should I update my menu planning?
Plan per quarter, but check monthly if supplier price increases affect your food cost. Major changes (new menu) are best done no more than 2x per year.
What if a popular dish isn't profitable?
These are 'Plowhorses'. Raise the price gradually (€1-2 at a time) or reduce the portion. Often you can do a 10-15% price increase without losing much sales.
How many new dishes should I add per quarter?
Maximum 2-3 new dishes per quarter. Too many confuses guests and the kitchen. Test first as a daily special before permanently adding to the menu.
Should I factor in seasons in my planning?
Absolutely. Summer dishes often have different food costs than winter dishes. Plan your menu around seasonal products - they're cheaper and taste better.
How do I prevent my food cost from creeping up?
Check your supplier prices monthly. Many quietly raise their prices. Update your food cost calculations immediately if prices go up.
📚 Sources consulted
- EU Verordening 852/2004 — Levensmiddelenhygiëne (2004) — Official source
- EU Verordening 853/2004 — Hygiënevoorschriften voor levensmiddelen van dierlijke oorsprong (2004) — Official source
- EU Verordening 1169/2011 — Voedselinformatie aan consumenten (2011) — Official source
- NVWA — Hygiënecode voor de horeca (2024) — Official source
- NVWA — Allergenen in voedsel (2024) — Official source
- Codex Alimentarius — International Food Standards (2024) — Official source
- FSA — Safer food, better business (HACCP) (2024) — Official source
- BVL — Lebensmittelhygiene (HACCP) (2024) — Official source
- Warenwetbesluit Bereiding en behandeling van levensmiddelen (2024) — Official source
- WHO — Foodborne diseases estimates (2024) — Official source
Food Standards Agency (FSA) — https://www.food.gov.uk
The HACCP standards shown in this application are for informational purposes only. KitchenNmbrs does not guarantee that displayed values are current or complete. Always consult the FSA or your local authority for the latest regulations.
Written by
Jeffrey Smit
Founder & CEO of KitchenNmbrs
Jeffrey Smit built KitchenNmbrs from 8 years of hands-on experience as kitchen manager at 1NUL8 Group in Rotterdam. His mission: give every restaurant owner control over food cost.
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